Next generation solar manufacturing pathway could avoid massive CO2 output

by Sophie Jenkins
London, UK (SPX) Feb 16, 2026

Manufacturing the next generation of solar panels could cut global carbon emissions by as much as 8.2 billion tonnes by 2035, according to a new international study led by researchers at the University of Warwick with colleagues from Northumbria, Birmingham and Oxford Universities. The team examined how rapidly scaling up advanced photovoltaic technologies can both support global decarbonisation and shrink the footprint of solar manufacturing itself.

Solar panels, known scientifically as photovoltaics, convert sunlight directly into electricity and are already central to climate mitigation strategies worldwide. As countries move to deploy solar at multi terawatt scale over the coming decade, policymakers and industry are paying closer attention to the emissions and resource demands embedded in the production of these devices.

At the same time, the solar industry is undergoing a major technology transition. The long-dominant passivated emitter rear cell, or PERC, architecture is being displaced by a newer, higher efficiency design called tunnel oxide passivated contact, or TOPCon, photovoltaics. Until now, the full environmental implications of switching manufacturing lines from PERC to TOPCon at very large scale had not been comprehensively assessed.

In research published in Nature Communications, the team carried out a full life cycle assessment comparing the complete manufacturing chain of PERC and TOPCon technologies. They evaluated the impacts associated with materials extraction, cell and module production, and upstream energy use to determine whether TOPCon can reduce the overall environmental burden of PV manufacturing as deployment accelerates.

Lead author Dr Nicholas Grant, Associate Professor at the University of Warwick, said that multi terawatt scale photovoltaic manufacturing demands a sharper focus on its full environmental footprint. "Our paper shows how targeted improvements across the supply chain can deliver sustainable manufacturing at the terawatt-scale, avoiding twenty-five gigatonnes of manufacturing-related CO2 emissions if installed by 2035, while supporting rapid global deployment."

The life cycle assessment found that producing TOPCon panels has lower environmental impacts in fifteen out of sixteen categories relative to incumbent PERC technology. The analysis indicates a 6.5 percent reduction in climate-changing emissions per unit of installed electricity capacity for TOPCon, with the only significant trade-off being higher silver consumption, which places additional pressure on critical mineral supplies.

The study underscores how the carbon intensity of local electricity grids shapes the footprint of solar manufacturing. Producing photovoltaics using low carbon electricity, such as in regions where grids rely heavily on renewables or nuclear power, can substantially cut manufacturing emissions compared with production on fossil fuel dependent systems. This makes the siting of new PV factories a key lever in shrinking the overall climate impact of the solar supply chain.

By combining widespread adoption of TOPCon technology with process improvements and progressive decarbonisation of electricity grids, the researchers estimate that cumulative emissions from solar manufacturing could fall by up to 8.2 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2035. That figure is on the order of 14 percent of current global annual emissions, highlighting the potential climate benefit embedded in technology choices made today by PV manufacturers and policymakers.

At the same time, the study projects that photovoltaics installed between 2023 and 2035 will help avoid more than 25 gigatonnes of carbon emissions by displacing fossil fuel electricity generation. This reinforces the role of solar power as a cornerstone of global climate mitigation, even once the environmental costs of manufacturing are fully accounted for in system assessments.

Senior author Professor Neil Beattie of Northumbria University said that solar photovoltaics is a critical technology that can be used globally now to cut greenhouse gas emissions and strengthen energy security. He noted that this role will become even more important as electricity demand surges over the next decade, driven by electric transport, low carbon heating and the expansion of digital infrastructure for applications such as artificial intelligence.

"Even when manufacturing impacts are considered, solar photovoltaics remains one of the lowest-impact and most sustainable electricity generation technologies available over its whole life cycle and we should concentrate on deploying it at scale, now," Professor Beattie added. The authors argue that aligning technology roadmaps, manufacturing locations and grid decarbonisation strategies can maximise the emissions savings from this rapid solar rollout.

Co-author Professor John Murphy, Chair of Electronic Materials at the University of Birmingham, said that silicon based photovoltaic technologies have immediate relevance for the UK and already play a major role in efforts to reach net zero emissions. He described the work as a product of a new collaboration between four leading UK university research groups, who aim to examine sustainability across the photovoltaics supply chain from raw materials through to end-of-life management.

Sebastian Bonilla, Associate Professor of Materials Science at the University of Oxford and co-author, said that the world is at a critical moment as solar power scales to provide a substantial fraction of global electricity generation. He said the study uniquely identifies the environmental impacts of the ongoing solar energy transition and can guide decisions on materials, technologies and manufacturing locations that minimise harm while maximising the benefits of terawatt-scale green electricity.

Research Report: Maximising environmental savings from silicon photovoltaics manufacturing to 2035