"Many models have assumed that combustion engine vehicles will continue to dominate in Africa through mid-century," says lead author Bessie Noll, a senior researcher in the Energy and Technology Policy Group at ETH Zurich, headed up by Professor Tobias Schmidt. "Our findings show that, under certain conditions, e-mobility is feasible sooner than many people think." The study was published in Nature Energy.
What helps here is that the cost of solar power and batteries has fallen sharply in recent years. At the same time, more and more affordable electric vehicles are hitting the market, especially from China. Motorbikes and eScooters are particularly economical today.
"We wanted to know what would happen if the charging system were designed specifically for daily demand," explains second lead author Christian Moretti, a research scientist in the Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis at PSI. "Even we were surprised by the results: these systems are significantly cheaper than is often assumed, and in many contexts they are even more reliable than the existing electrical grid."
Specifically, the team's calculations show that a compact solar system is enough for a small car that travels around 50 kilometres (approx. 30 miles) per day. The cost of charging accounts for only a very small portion of the total vehicle costs. In many places, switching to electric scooters and motorbikes already makes good financial sense.
"Africa is not a single, uniform market," stresses Noll. "The framework conditions vary enormously, as does the point at which e-mobility makes sense financially."
"Synthetic fuels are urgently needed in other areas, such as aviation and industry," says Moretti. "They do not make sense as a priority for passenger transport in Africa."
"If financing costs can be reduced, the transition will accelerate dramatically," says Noll. Potential options include government guarantees, new financing models or international support. E-mobility could also create new economic opportunities for Africa, through things like local assembly, new services or jobs along the supply chain.
The researchers also did not model in detail infrastructure issues, such as the expansion of public charging stations, or social and political factors, such as import regulations on used vehicles. "We first wanted to understand whether e-mobility is feasible and affordable in principle," says Noll. "How each country manages their specific transition depends heavily on local conditions and policy decisions."
Low-income countries are bearing the brunt. Here, fuel taxes account for more than nine percent of total government revenue on average, significantly higher than in wealthier countries. At the same time, these countries often have less institutional capacity to introduce new tax regimes quickly. "The transition to electric vehicles makes sense in terms of climate policy, but poses difficult budgetary questions for a lot of countries," notes Noll. Early tax reforms and international support could help to avoid financing gaps.
Together, both studies show that e-mobility in Africa is technically and economically feasible, but it will take forward-thinking policies that take a holistic view of energy, transport and financial issues if it is to achieve its full potential.
Research Report:Battery-electric passenger vehicles will be cost-effective across Africa well before 2040
Related Links
ETH Zurich
Car Technology at SpaceMart.com
| Subscribe Free To Our Daily Newsletters |
| Subscribe Free To Our Daily Newsletters |
