The figure was supposed to "grab some attention" and sound a timely warning in the hope of avoiding more needless deaths, said Friederike Otto, one of the scientists involved in the research.
"We are still relatively early in the summer, so this will not have been the last heatwave. There is a lot that people and communities can do to save lives," Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London, told AFP.
Heat can claim tens of thousands of lives during European summers but it usually takes months, even years, to count the cost of this "silent killer".
Otto and colleagues published their partial estimate just a week after temperatures peaked in western Europe.
While the underlying methods were not new, the scientists said it was the first study to link heatwave deaths to climate change so soon after the event in question.
Early mortality estimates could be misunderstood as official statistics but "from a public health perspective the benefits of providing timely evidence outweigh these risks," Raquel Nunes from the University of Warwick told AFP.
"This approach could have transformative potential for both public understanding and policy prioritisation" of heatwaves, said Nunes, an expert on global warming and health who was not involved in the study.
- Big deal -
Science can show, with increasing speed and confidence, that human-caused climate change is making heatwaves hotter and more frequent.
Unlike floods and fires, heat kills quietly, with prolonged exposure causing heat stroke, organ failure, and death.
The sick and elderly are particularly vulnerable, but so are younger people exercising or toiling outdoors.
But every summer, heat kills and Otto -- a pioneer in the field of attribution science -- started wondering if the message was getting through.
"We have done attribution studies of extreme weather events and attribution studies of heatwaves for a decade... but as a society we are not prepared for these heatwaves," she said.
"People think it's 30 (degrees Celsius) instead of 27, what's the big deal? And we know it's a big deal."
When the mercury started climbing in Europe earlier this summer, scientists tweaked their approach.
Joining forces, Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine chose to spotlight the lethality -- not just the intensity -- of the heat between June 23 and July 2.
Combining historic weather and published mortality data, they assessed that climate change made the heatwave between 1C and 4C hotter across 12 cities, depending on location, and that 2,300 people had likely perished.
But in a notable first, they estimated that 65 percent of these deaths -- around 1,500 people across cities including London, Paris, and Athens -- would not have occurred in a world without global warming.
"That's a much stronger message," said Otto.
"It brings it much closer to home what climate change actually means and makes it much more real and human than when you say this heatwave would have been two degrees colder."
- Underestimated threat -
The study was just a snapshot of the wider heatwave that hit during western Europe's hottest June on record and sent temperatures soaring to 46C in Spain and Portugal.
The true toll was likely much higher, the authors said, noting that heat deaths are widely undercounted.
Since then Turkey, Greece and Bulgaria have suffered fresh heatwaves and deadly wildfires.
Though breaking new ground, the study has not been subject to peer review, a rigorous assessment process that can take more than a year.
Otto said waiting until after summer to publish -- when "no one's talking about heatwaves, no one is thinking about keeping people safe" -- would defeat the purpose.
"I think it's especially important, in this context, to get the message out there very quickly."
The study had limitations but relied on robust and well-established scientific methodology, several independent experts told AFP.
Tailoring this approach to local conditions could help cities better prepare when heatwaves loom, Abhiyant Tiwari, a health and climate expert who worked on India's first-ever heat action plan, told AFP.
"I definitely see more such studies coming out in the future," said Tiwari from NRDC India.
Otto said India, which experiences tremendously hot summers, was a "prime candidate" and with a template in place it was likely more studies would soon follow.
Seoul breaks century-long record with 22 'tropical nights' in July
Seoul (AFP) July 31, 2025 -
A streak of super-hot tropical nights broke a century-old South Korean weather record, according to official data released Thursday, as the peninsula bakes in a prolonged heatwave.
Overnight temperatures in Seoul have sizzled above 25C for 22 consecutive days in July, officials said Thursday, marking the longest such streak for the month since modern weather records began in October 1907.
Such evenings are known as "tropical nights" in South Korea.
The capital was also on track to record its hottest July night in history on Wednesday, with the lowest temperature of the day reaching 29.3C -- unless overnight temperatures rise even higher on Thursday.
Much of the world is enduring a summer of sweltering weather, with June being the hottest month ever recorded for 12 countries, according to an AFP analysis of data from the European climate monitor Copernicus.
The intense heat in Seoul is expected to continue, according to the meteorology office.
"The warm air from the North Pacific High began affecting South Korea a bit earlier than usual," Youn Ki-han, director at Seoul's Meteorology Forecast Division, told AFP.
"As that influence gradually built up, the heat accumulated, much like interest compounding in a savings account, slowly increasing over time," said Youn.
"Normally, if it's hot for just a day, temperatures spike and then quickly return to normal. But when warm conditions persist for several days, the heat doesn't fully dissipate, it lingers and accumulates with each day," he added.
Thirteen people have died from suspected heat-related causes so far this year, triple the number from the same period last year, according to data from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency.
Hundreds of thousands of livestock have also perished amid the extreme heat.
Turkish city calls for help after heat tops 50C
Silopi, Turkey (AFP) July 30, 2025 -
A choking heatwave left astonished locals in southeastern Turkey calling for state help to pay their air conditioning bills after the temperature surged past 50C.
"We cannot cope with the heat," ice-cream maker Recep Esiyok, 59, told AFP in Silopi, where meteorologists measured 50.5C on Friday -- a national record.
"I've been living in Silopi for about 30 years. I've never seen such heat... I've never seen such heat anywhere."
He is getting through the heatwave thanks to the air conditioner in his shop, but is now worried about paying for the electricity.
"My bill last month was 59,000 lira (1,450 dollars). We are asking for state support on this issue."
- 'Incomparable' heat -
Before Friday's record, the previous peak in Turkey had been 49.5C in August 2023.
Scientists agree that climate change caused by humans burning fossil fuels is increasing the likelihood, length and intensity of heatwaves.
"The heat has reached a point where it's incomparable to previous years," said Halil Coskun, 52, a local reporter.
The country is still in the grip of the heatwave and since Sunday temperatures overall have surged from six to 12 degrees above seasonal norms, according to the state meteorology directorate.
- Wildfire threat -
Turkey has fought fires in several regions since the start of the summer.
Last week, 10 people perished while fighting a fire in Eskisehir province.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Monday the country has experienced drier conditions than normal over the past five years as a result of global warming.
"Extreme heat, low humidity, and strong winds are unfortunately increasing the risk of fire," he said.
He said the state was using drones to monitor and protect forests.
The streets were relatively empty and the atmosphere tense in Silopi, a Kurdish city whose main income is trade with Iraq across the border 10 kilometres (six miles) away.
"When it's hot, there's no one outside during the day," said Esiyok.
- Deforestation complaints -
Other locals complained at the lack of vegetation to provide relief around the town, which lies at the foot of a mountain.
"Unfortunately, the forests here were burned in the past for security reasons," said Coskun.
He said the Turkish army cleared them in the search for fighters from the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), a rebel group that recently disarmed.
Turkey's parliament this month also passed a bill that opens certain agricultural lands including olive groves to mining activities, despite widespread opposition.
"We could at least minimise the heat by planting trees, not by felling them," Coskun said.
- Electricity bills -
Sweating in his kebab shop, another local, Cemil Seher, said that summers in Silopi last not three months, but five.
For Seher, 51, air conditioning is no longer a luxury but a necessity.
"AC is essential here as much as bread and water," he said.
"When the air conditioners are running, the electricity bills are very high," he said, demanding authorities offer discounts for businesses.
"I want a discount not only for Silopi but for the entire region from here to Sanliurfa" in the east, he said.
"I am not making a profit because I've been working... to pay my electricity bill."
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