. 24/7 Space News .
CLIMATE SCIENCE
Climate warming forecasts may be too rosy: study
By Marlowe HOOD
Paris (AFP) Nov 22, 2021

UN projections of how much current climate policies and national pledges to cut carbon pollution will slow global warming are more uncertain than widely assumed, researchers reported Monday.

Leading into this month's COP26 summit, the UN said existing policies would see Earth's average surface temperature rise a "catastrophic" 2.7 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by 2100.

Renewed pledges from large emitters such as India would have a negligible effect on warming this century, the UN said during COP26, and were still worlds away from the Paris Agreement temperature goal of 1.5C of warming.

But the apparent precision of these estimates is misleading, according to a new study, written by several contributors to the UN reports it calls into question.

"The false precision to climate outcomes given during COP26 may lead countries to believe they are making good progress, when the opposite may be true," said first author Ida Sognnaes, a senior scientist at the CICERO climate research centre in Olso.

At issue is the standard method used to connect the dots between a set of climate policies and the end-of-century temperature increases they might lead to.

Most climate projections are based on models that start with the desired temperature outcome -- a cap on global warming of 1.5C or 2C, for example -- and then work backwards to see what policy levers need to be pulled in order to get there.

In this "backcasting" approach, experts adjust variables such as coal use, renewables and afforestation to hit the end-of-century target.

"Our study is a 'forecast'," said CICERO's director of research Glen Peters. "We model out where existing policies take us and then see where we end up."

Seven different climate modelling groups used this technique to assess how voluntary pledges under the Paris treaty running to 2030 -- known as nationally determined contributions -- would play out by 2100.

- Unrealistic scenarios -

Their estimates, published in Nature Climate Change, ranged from 2.2C to 2.9C, roughly in line with the UN figures.

What stood out, however, was the lack of certainty.

"If you take the low end of that range, it may sound like we are really close to meeting the Paris goals," Peters told AFP.

"But it is equally likely that the outcome could be up around 3C, in which case much stronger policies would be needed."

Peters compared the new study's methods to those used to measure the impact of Covid policies such as mask wearing, social distancing or vaccination.

Since the outbreak of the pandemic in early 2020, Covid modelling has been updated every few months based on how policy is seen to be affecting the spread of the virus.

"New policy is based on where we are actually heading, not where we may have been heading if there was no action taken," Peters said.

Most studies on global warming impacts contrast a worst-case scenario of unabated carbon emissions, on the one hand, with aggressively optimistic pathways to a 1.5C world on the other.

The reality, however, is somewhere in between these extremes, and is likely to stay there for decades.

"We are filling a gap in the literature, and putting our money where our mouth is," Peters explained.


Related Links
Climate Science News - Modeling, Mitigation Adaptation


Thanks for being there;
We need your help. The SpaceDaily news network continues to grow but revenues have never been harder to maintain.

With the rise of Ad Blockers, and Facebook - our traditional revenue sources via quality network advertising continues to decline. And unlike so many other news sites, we don't have a paywall - with those annoying usernames and passwords.

Our news coverage takes time and effort to publish 365 days a year.

If you find our news sites informative and useful then please consider becoming a regular supporter or for now make a one off contribution.
SpaceDaily Monthly Supporter
$5+ Billed Monthly


paypal only
SpaceDaily Contributor
$5 Billed Once


credit card or paypal


CLIMATE SCIENCE
Climate envoy Kerry voices hope for more US-China cooperation
Singapore (AFP) Nov 19, 2021
United States climate envoy John Kerry voiced hope on Friday that Beijing and Washington would work together more closely on the climate emergency after they struck a pact to accelerate action against greenhouse gas emissions. Speaking at a forum in Singapore, the former secretary of state emphasised cooperation - even as the rivals spar over other flashpoint issues such as Taiwan. "I hope that our working together will increase the sharing of data, increase the sharing of options and begin to ... read more

Comment using your Disqus, Facebook, Google or Twitter login.



Share this article via these popular social media networks
del.icio.usdel.icio.us DiggDigg RedditReddit GoogleGoogle

CLIMATE SCIENCE
Crew operations aboard Space Station return to normal

Moonshot: Japan recruits first new astronauts in 13 years

First all-private space station mission to include two dozen experiments

NASA receives 11th consecutive clean financial audit opinion

CLIMATE SCIENCE
Latest Vega launch paves way for Vega-C

Pangea Aerospace hot fire tests the first MethaLox aerospike engine in the world

PLD Space exhibits the first privately-developed Spanish rocket

Arianespace to launch Australian satellite Optus-11 with Ariane 6

CLIMATE SCIENCE
NASA's Perseverance captures challenging flight by Mars Helicopter

Curiosity continues to dine on Zechstein drill fines

Twin of NASA's Perseverance Mars rover begins terrain tests

Life on Mars search could be misled by false fossils

CLIMATE SCIENCE
Chinese astronauts' EVAs to help extend mechanical arm

Astronaut becomes first Chinese woman to spacewalk

Shenzhou XIII crew ready for first spacewalk

Chinese astronauts arrive at space station for longest mission

CLIMATE SCIENCE
Satellite operator Telesat goes public

CGI selected for GSA's ASTRO space and development IDIQ contract

SES orders 2 new sats for Prime TV Neighbourhood serving 118 million homes

Bezos' Blue Origin hires lobbyist after 'Space Tax' proposed

CLIMATE SCIENCE
DARPA focusing on biomanufacturing to B-SURE

Salvaging rare earth elements from electronic waste

Researchers recreate deep-Earth conditions to see how iron copes with extreme stress

Bacteria may be key to sustainably extracting earth elements for tech

CLIMATE SCIENCE
"Alien" invasions and the need for planetary biosecurity

The worlds next door: Looking for habitable planets around Alpha Centauri

Alien organisms - hitchhikers of the galaxy

Discovering exoplanets using artificial intelligence

CLIMATE SCIENCE
Science results offer first 3D view of Jupiter's atmosphere

Juno peers deep into Jupiter's colorful belts and zones

Scientists find strange black 'superionic ice' that could exist inside other planets

Jupiter's Great Red Spot is deeper than thought, shaped like lens









The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2024 - Space Media Network. All websites are published in Australia and are solely subject to Australian law and governed by Fair Use principals for news reporting and research purposes. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA news reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. All articles labeled "by Staff Writers" include reports supplied to Space Media Network by industry news wires, PR agencies, corporate press officers and the like. Such articles are individually curated and edited by Space Media Network staff on the basis of the report's information value to our industry and professional readership. Advertising does not imply endorsement, agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) Statement Our advertisers use various cookies and the like to deliver the best ad banner available at one time. All network advertising suppliers have GDPR policies (Legitimate Interest) that conform with EU regulations for data collection. By using our websites you consent to cookie based advertising. If you do not agree with this then you must stop using the websites from May 25, 2018. Privacy Statement. Additional information can be found here at About Us.