. 24/7 Space News .
EARTH OBSERVATION
Climate Change May Lead to Bigger Atmospheric Rivers
by Esprit Smith for JPL News
Pasadena CA (JPL) May 25, 2018

illustration only

A new NASA-led study shows that climate change is likely to intensify extreme weather events known as atmospheric rivers across most of the globe by the end of this century, while slightly reducing their number.

The new study projects atmospheric rivers will be significantly longer and wider than the ones we observe today, leading to more frequent atmospheric river conditions in affected areas.

"The results project that in a scenario where greenhouse gas emissions continue at the current rate, there will be about 10 percent fewer atmospheric rivers globally by the end of the 21st century," said the study's lead author, Duane Waliser, of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. "However, because the findings project that the atmospheric rivers will be, on average, about 25 percent wider and longer, the global frequency of atmospheric river conditions - like heavy rain and strong winds - will actually increase by about 50 percent."

The results also show that the frequency of the most intense atmospheric river storms is projected to nearly double.

Atmospheric rivers are long, narrow jets of air that carry huge amounts of water vapor from the tropics to Earth's continents and polar regions. These "rivers in the sky" typically range from 250 to 375 miles (400 to 600 kilometers) wide and carry as much water - in the form of water vapor - as about 25 Mississippi Rivers. When an atmospheric river makes landfall, particularly against mountainous terrain (such as the Sierra Nevada and the Andes), it releases much of that water vapor in the form of rain or snow.

These storm systems are common - on average, there are about 11 present on Earth at any time. In many areas of the globe, they bring much-needed precipitation and are an important contribution to annual freshwater supplies. However, stronger atmospheric rivers - especially those that stall at landfall or that produce rain on top of snowpack - can cause disastrous flooding.

Atmospheric rivers show up on satellite imagery, including in data from a series of actual atmospheric river storms that drenched the U.S. West Coast and caused severe flooding in early 2017.

The Study
Climate change studies on atmospheric rivers to date have been mostly limited to two specific regions, the western United States and Europe. They have typically used different methodologies for identifying atmospheric rivers and different climate projection models - meaning results from one are not quantitatively comparable to another.

The team sought to provide a more streamlined and global approach to evaluating the effects of climate change on atmospheric river storms.

The study relied on two resources - a set of commonly used global climate model projections for the 21st century developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's latest assessment report, and a global atmospheric river detection algorithm that can be applied to climate model output. The algorithm, developed earlier by members of the study team, identifies atmospheric river events from every day of the model simulations, quantifying their length, width and how much water vapor they transport.

The team applied the atmospheric river detection algorithm to both actual observations and model simulations for the late 20th century. Comparing the data showed that the models produced a relatively realistic representation of atmospheric rivers for the late 20th century climate.

They then applied the algorithm to model projections of climate in the late 21st century. In doing this, they were able to compare the frequency and characteristics of atmospheric rivers for the current climate with the projections for future climate.

The team also tested the algorithm with a different climate model scenario that assumed more conservative increases in the rate of greenhouse gas emissions. They found similar, though less drastic changes. Together, the consideration of the two climate scenarios indicates a direct link between the extent of warming and the frequency and severity of atmospheric river conditions.

What does this mean?
The significance of the study is two-fold.

First, "knowing the nature of how these atmospheric river events might change with future climate conditions allows for scientists, water managers, stakeholders and citizens living in atmospheric river-prone regions [e.g. western N. America, western S. America, S. Africa, New Zealand, western Europe] to consider the potential implications that might come with a change to these extreme precipitation events," said Vicky Espinoza, postdoctoral fellow at the University of California-Merced and first author of the study.

And secondly, the study and its approach provide a much-needed, uniform way to research atmospheric rivers on a global level - illustrating a foundation to analyze and compare them that did not previously exist.

Limitations
Data across the models are generally consistent - all support the projection that atmospheric river conditions are linked to warming and will increase in the future; however, co-author Marty Ralph of the University of California, San Diego, points out that there is still work to be done.

"While all the models project increases in the frequency of atmospheric river conditions, the results also illustrate uncertainties in the details of the climate projections of this key phenomenon," he said. "This highlights the need to better understand why the models' representations of atmospheric rivers vary."

The study, titled "Global Analysis of Climate Change Projection Effects on Atmospheric Rivers," was recently published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.


Related Links
Climate at NASA
Earth Observation News - Suppiliers, Technology and Application


Thanks for being there;
We need your help. The SpaceDaily news network continues to grow but revenues have never been harder to maintain.

With the rise of Ad Blockers, and Facebook - our traditional revenue sources via quality network advertising continues to decline. And unlike so many other news sites, we don't have a paywall - with those annoying usernames and passwords.

Our news coverage takes time and effort to publish 365 days a year.

If you find our news sites informative and useful then please consider becoming a regular supporter or for now make a one off contribution.
SpaceDaily Monthly Supporter
$5+ Billed Monthly


paypal only
SpaceDaily Contributor
$5 Billed Once


credit card or paypal


EARTH OBSERVATION
University of Colorado's Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics adopts Ada and GNAT Pro for NASA project
Boulder CO (SPX) May 25, 2018
AdaCore reports that the University of Colorado's Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP) has selected the Ada language and the GNAT Pro for the ARM Cortex product for NASA's Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) Pathfinder mission. CLARREO Pathfinder will deploy a Reflected Solar spectrometer on the International Space Station (ISS) starting in 2021 that will detect the complete spectrum of radiation from the Sun reflected by Earth. LASP has selected t ... read more

Comment using your Disqus, Facebook, Google or Twitter login.



Share this article via these popular social media networks
del.icio.usdel.icio.us DiggDigg RedditReddit GoogleGoogle

EARTH OBSERVATION
US May Order Russian Soyuz Spacecraft to Fly Astronauts to ISS in 2020 - Source

Cement, extreme cold experiments head to space aboard Cygnus cargo ship

US spacewalkers swap, check coolers 'Leaky' and 'Frosty'

NASA Invites Media to SLS Industry Day

EARTH OBSERVATION
US indirectly confirms existence of Russia's hypersonic weapons

Chinese private firm launches first space rocket

RL10 engine to power ULA's new Vulcan Centaur Upper Stage

NASA's emerging microgap cooling to be tested aboard New Shepard

EARTH OBSERVATION
NASA's Curiosity Rover Aims to Get Its Rhythm Back

Sierra Nevada Corporation Hardware on NASA's Mars InSight Mission

Dorset as model to help find traces of life on Mars

Opportunity team continues studies on origin of 'Perseverance Valley'

EARTH OBSERVATION
China's Queqiao satellite carries "large umbrella" into deep space

Russia May Help China Create International Cosmonauts Rehabilitation Center

Sunrise for China's commercial space industry?

Chinese rewrite record, live 370 days in self-contained moon lab

EARTH OBSERVATION
Goonhilly lands 24m pounds investment enabling global expansion

Australian Space Agency Lost In Canberra

In crowded field, Iraq election hopefuls vie to stand out

ESA selects three new mission concepts for study

EARTH OBSERVATION
Astonishing effect enables better palladium catalysts

Waterloo chemists create faster and more efficient way to process information

Supercomputing the emergence of material behavior

Keep the light off: A material with improved mechanical performance in the dark

EARTH OBSERVATION
Orbital variations can trigger 'snowball states' on exoplanets

Amateur astronomer's data helps scientists discover a new exoplanet

Scientists crack how primordial life on Earth might have replicated itself

Atmospheric seasons could signal alien life

EARTH OBSERVATION
Study co-authored by UCLA scientists shows evidence of water vapor plumes on Jupiter moon

Old Data Reveal New Evidence of Europa Plumes

New views of Jupiter" showcases swirling clouds on giant planet

Fresh results from NASA's Galileo spacecraft 20 years on









The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2024 - Space Media Network. All websites are published in Australia and are solely subject to Australian law and governed by Fair Use principals for news reporting and research purposes. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA news reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. All articles labeled "by Staff Writers" include reports supplied to Space Media Network by industry news wires, PR agencies, corporate press officers and the like. Such articles are individually curated and edited by Space Media Network staff on the basis of the report's information value to our industry and professional readership. Advertising does not imply endorsement, agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) Statement Our advertisers use various cookies and the like to deliver the best ad banner available at one time. All network advertising suppliers have GDPR policies (Legitimate Interest) that conform with EU regulations for data collection. By using our websites you consent to cookie based advertising. If you do not agree with this then you must stop using the websites from May 25, 2018. Privacy Statement. Additional information can be found here at About Us.