Scientists predict what crops may thrive in the UK by 2080 due to climate change

Scientists predict what crops may thrive in the UK by 2080 due to climate change
by Sophie Jenkins
London, UK (SPX) Jan 24, 2025

Climate change, while posing major challenges to agriculture, could also expand the range of crops grown in the UK by 2080. According to a study led by the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (UKCEH) in collaboration with the University of East Anglia (UEA), warmer temperatures may enable crops like chickpeas, soybeans, and oranges to flourish in the UK, potentially making locally produced hummus, tofu, and marmalade commonplace.

The comprehensive research, part of the OpenCLIM project, examined the suitability of over 160 crops under temperature increases of 2 and 4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The findings suggest that while some traditional crops may decline, the UK's agricultural landscape could diversify significantly.

Lead researcher Dr. John Redhead, a Spatial Ecologist at UKCEH, commented, "Our climate is expected to change substantially over coming decades at a time when there will be rising demand for food due to population growth. It is therefore essential that arable farming becomes more resilient; one possible solution is growing different crops that are more suited to the new local conditions."

Winners and losers among crops

The study's findings, published in the journal Climate Resilience and Sustainability, revealed increased suitability for many new crops, particularly those tolerant of hotter and drier summers. However, traditional crops like wheat, strawberries, onions, and oats may become harder to grow in the most productive regions of Southeast and East Anglia under warming scenarios. New crops, such as sunflower, soybeans, cowpeas, citrus fruits, chickpeas, and wine grapes, are likely to thrive in these conditions.

Importance of diversity

The study highlighted the global reliance on a small number of crops for food supply, emphasizing the benefits of greater diversity for food security and climate resilience. For example, legumes like chickpeas and soybeans provide essential proteins, supporting a shift to diets with a lower carbon footprint. These crops also improve soil health by adding nitrogen, reducing fertilizer dependence.

Regional variations and challenges

Projections indicate the Southwest and Scottish Borders will see the largest increases in crop suitability, thanks to rising temperatures being less offset by summer water restrictions. However, challenges remain, including small field sizes, variable terrain, and the need for updated supply chains in these regions. Economic risks, environmental concerns, and the introduction of new pests and diseases must also be considered.

"Climate change is happening now, and its impacts will increase by 2080," said Dr. Redhead. "Whatever action is taken will involve big challenges in terms of where our food comes from and the way our agricultural landscapes are managed."

Solutions for future farming

To address these challenges, the study suggests:

- Further research into viable crops identified as "winners."

- Updating agricultural supply and distribution systems to accommodate new crops.

- Exploring alternative farming methods like wet farming and vertical farming.

- Breeding heat- and drought-resistant varieties of current staple crops.

Professor Rachel Warren of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at UEA underscored the importance of proactive planning. "Without such data, agricultural systems are likely to be 'locked in' to current crops, with adaptations failing to keep pace with climate change or relying on practices that exacerbate its impacts, such as heavy irrigation that would increase water scarcity," she said.

The study's horizon-scanning approach could serve as a model for other countries assessing how climate change impacts their agriculture.

Research Report:National horizon-scanning for future crops under a changing UK climate