The Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law in 2022, requires 100% of cars manufactured to be electric by 2035. However, an electric vehicle needs three to five times as much copper as a combustion engine vehicle, in addition to the copper required for electric grid upgrades.
"A normal Honda Accord needs about 40 pounds of copper. The same battery electric Honda Accord needs almost 200 pounds of copper. Onshore wind turbines require about 10 tons of copper, and in offshore wind turbines, that amount can more than double," said Adam Simon, U-M professor of earth and environmental studies. "We show in the paper that the amount of copper needed is essentially impossible for mining companies to produce."
The study analyzed 120 years of global copper mining data and assessed the copper needed for U.S. electricity infrastructure and vehicle upgrades to renewable energy. It found that renewable energy's copper needs would surpass what copper mines can currently produce. The study, led by Simon and Cornell University researcher Lawrence Cathles, was published by the International Energy Forum and discussed in a webinar, "Copper mining and vehicle electrification."
One issue is the permitting process for mining companies. The average time between discovering a new copper deposit and getting a permit to build a mine is about 20 years, according to Simon.
Copper is mined by more than 100 companies worldwide. The researchers gathered data on global copper production since 1900, showing how much copper has been mined over 120 years. They then modeled future copper production.
The researchers found that between 2018 and 2050, the world will need to mine 115% more copper than has been mined throughout human history up until 2018 to meet "business as usual." This would meet current copper needs and support the developing world without considering the green energy transition.
To meet the copper needs for electrifying the global vehicle fleet, as many as six new large copper mines must be brought online annually for several decades. About 40% of the production from new mines will be needed for electric vehicle-related grid upgrades.
"I'm a huge fan of the Inflation Reduction Act. I think it's fantastic. I've got solar panels, batteries and an electric vehicle," Simon said. "I'm fully on board with the energy transition. However, it needs to be done in a way that's achievable."
Instead of fully electrifying the U.S. vehicle fleet, the researchers suggest focusing on manufacturing hybrid vehicles.
"We are hoping the study gets picked up by policymakers who should consider copper as the limiting factor for the energy transition, and to think about how copper is allocated," Simon said. "We know, for example, that a Toyota Prius actually has a slightly better impact on climate than a Tesla. Instead of producing 20 million electric vehicles in the United States and globally, 100 million battery electric vehicles each year, would it be more feasible to focus on building 20 million hybrid vehicles?"
The researchers also note that copper is needed for developing countries to build infrastructure, such as electric grids for about 1 billion people who don't have electricity, clean water facilities for about 2 billion people without clean water, and wastewater treatment for 4 billion people without sanitation facilities.
"Renewable energy technologies, clean water, wastewater, electricity-it cannot exist without copper. So we then end up with tension between how much copper we need to build infrastructure in less developed countries versus how much copper we need for the energy transition," Simon said.
"We think our study highlights that significant progress can be made to reduce emissions in the United States. However, the current-almost singular-emphasis on downstream manufacture of renewable energy technologies cannot be met by upstream mine production of copper and other metals without a complete mindset change about mining among environmental groups and policymakers."
Research Report:Copper mining and vehicle electrification
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