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CLIMATE SCIENCE
California to 'whiplash' between drought, floods: study
By Mari�tte Le Roux
Paris (AFP) April 23, 2018

China may avoid 94,000 deaths with climate policies: study
Beijing (AFP) April 23, 2018 - China could avoid nearly 94,000 premature deaths and save a whopping $339 billion in health costs over the next 12 years by honouring its carbon reduction commitments under the Paris climate accord, a study showed Monday.

The country has pledged to reach peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 at the latest and to cut carbon emissions per unit of economic output (GDP) by 60-65 percent compared to 2005 levels.

The study by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology published in the journal Nature Climate Change said China would have to slash CO2 emissions by about four percent each year to save nearly 94,000 lives through cleaner air in that timespan.

Researchers estimated that health-related savings could be about four times what it would cost Beijing to meet its climate goals.

"The country could actually come out net positive, just based on the health co-benefits associated with air quality improvements, relative to the cost of a climate policy," said co-author Noelle Eckley Selin, an associate professor at MIT.

China is the world's biggest polluter and has faced an uphill battle transitioning from coal, which is used to generate roughly three-quarters of its power, according to the International Energy Agency.

The country's coal consumption last year rose for the first time since 2013, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, despite a drive to promote less-polluting energy sources.

China announced plans in December for a national carbon market, which is likely to become the world's largest exchange for emissions credits. The move is expected to slowly push utility companies and manufacturers to embrace clean fuel.

China is considered a potential leader in the fight against climate change after the US retreated from the Paris accord. This calls for capping a global temperature rise at well below two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), and at 1.5 C (2.7 F) if possible, compared with pre-industrial levels.

The MIT team used a model to simulate how a climate policy changes a province's economic activity, energy use and emissions of CO2 and other air pollutants. It calculated the amount of pollution which communities inhale, and consulted epidemiological literature to determine the number of deaths that would be avoided.

The researchers then calculated the economic value of the deaths and compared them with the total cost of implementing the policy.

California will zigzag between droughts and floods which will become more intense and more frequent in the coming decades unless global emissions of planet-warming greenhouse gases are checked, researchers said Monday.

The Golden State has already experienced a rapid rise in such "whiplash" events -- careering from a record multi-year drought between 2012 and 2016, to heavy flooding in the winter of 2016-17.

The situation will worsen as the global climate alters due to mankind's voracious burning of coal, oil, and gas for energy, a team wrote in the journal Nature Climate Change.

They projected that wet-to-dry extremes in California may double under a worst-case scenario in which fossil fuel emissions continue growing until 2100 instead of the urgent reduction scientists say our planet needs.

Such unfettered emissions would lead to average global warming far exceeding the ceiling of two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) set out in the Paris Agreement concluded by the world's nations in 2015.

A recent analysis said national pledges made under the pact slow emissions, but still put the world on track for warming of 3C or more -- dangerous, but lower than the outlier scenario used for the study.

Based on their models, the researchers projected a 25-percent rise in the frequency of so-called whiplash events for northern California this century, and up to 100 percent in the south of the state.

A disaster on the scale of the 1862 "Great Flood" was likely to occur at least once between now and 2060 and would "probably lead to considerable loss of life and economic damages approaching a trillion dollars," said the study.

Multiple such events were "plausible" until 2100.

- Serious challenge -

California, like other regions with a Mediterranean climate, enjoys dry summers and wet winters and is prone to dramatic swings between drought and flood.

In 2017, after a years-long dry period, the state endured months of heavy rain that damaged hundreds of roads and contributed to the failure of the Oroville Dam that forced the emergency evacuation of nearly a quarter-of-a-million people.

A whiplash future as projected in the study would "seriously challenge" California's water storage, conveyance, and flood control infrastructure, the authors said.

"Few of the dams, levees and canals that currently protect millions living in California's flood plains and facilitate the movement of water from Sierra Nevada watersheds to coastal cities have been tested by a deluge as severe" as the Great Flood, they wrote.

Another paper, published in the same journal, warned that average global warming of 3 C over pre-industrial levels will double the total drought-prone area of Europe from 13 percent to 26 percent.

If warming can be contained to 1.5 C, the lower aspirational target outlined in the Paris Agreement, this is reduced to 19 percent, it said.

There was bad news for Africa too.

In a third publication, also in Nature Climate Change, researchers said limiting warming to 1.5 C rather than 2 C promised "considerable benefits in terms of minimising heat extremes and their associated socio-economic impacts across Africa."

But it won't remove the risk altogether.


Related Links
Climate Science News - Modeling, Mitigation Adaptation


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CLIMATE SCIENCE
More frequent droughts mean fewer flowers for bees
Washington DC (UPI) Apr 13, 2018
As the planet warms and droughts grow longer and more frequent, as predicted by climate scientists, bees are likely to find fewer flowers to get nectar. When researchers at the University of Exeter and the University of Manchester analyzed the impact of droughts on flower blooms, they found drought conditions halved the number of flowers available to pollinators. "The plants we examined responded to drought in various ways, from producing fewer flowers to producing flowers that contained ... read more

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