Arctic warming three times faster than the planet, report warns

The Arctic has warmed three times more quickly than the planet as a whole, and faster than previously thought, a report warned on Thursday.

Arctic sea ice looks set to be an early victims of rising temperatures, with each fraction of a degree making a big difference: the chance of it disappearing entirely in summer is 10 times greater if Earth warms by 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels compared to 1.5C, the goal set by the 2015 Paris Accord.

The alarming finding comes from the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) in a report timed to coincide with a ministerial meeting this week of the Arctic Council in Reykjavik, which gathers countries bordering the region.

"The Arctic is a real hotspot for climate warming," said Jason Box, a glaciologist at the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland.

In less than half a century, from 1971 to 2019, the Arctic's average annual temperature rose by 3.1C, compared to 1C for the planet as a whole.

That's more than previously suspected. In a 2019 report on Earth's frozen spaces, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that Arctic surface air temperature has likely increased "by more than double the global average".

- Forest fires -

According to researchers, a turning point came in 2004 when the temperature in the Arctic surged for largely unexplained reason.

Since then, warming has continued at a rate 30 percent higher than in previous decades.

The region is now experiencing "more and longer lasting winter warm events," Box told AFP.

During the summer months from June to September, there is added heat from the ocean, which is increasingly free of ice and the insulation it provides.

And the warming is not coming to an end any time soon.

According to forecasts in the report, by the end of the century average temperatures in the Arctic are expected to rise 3.3 to 10 degrees above the average for the period 1985-2014.

The final figure depends on how rapidly humanity draws down greenhouse gas emissions.

Warming has immediate consequences for the Arctic ecosystem, including changes in habitat, food habits and interactions between animals -- including the iconic polar bear -- and the migration of some species.

From Siberia to Alaska, forest fires have also become a problem.

"This is what 3C looks like, it's not just numbers, it's forests on fire," said Box.

"The impacts of wild land fires are not limited to public safety concerns, such as protecting life and property," said US researcher Michael Young, Arctic Council Wildland Fire Projects Coordinator.

"The smoke they produce also contains carbon dioxide and black carbon, which both contribute to climate change."

- Global impact -

The consequences are also dramatic for the four million people who live in the region, especially indigenous peoples.

"Hunters in northwestern Greenland report that the period when travel by dog sleds on sea ice is possible has decreased from five to three months," said Sarah Trainor, director of the Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy.

"Indigenous hunters and fishermen in Canada and Russia have reported thinner seals, decreased health of wildlife and a greater prevalence of worms in fish and sea mammals," she added.

A warmer Arctic is also more humid, with rain replacing snow.

"Reindeer herders in Fennoscandia (Finland and Scandinavia) and Russia have experienced major losses in their herds due to extreme snowfall and rain-on-snow events," added Trainor, as layers of frozen rain prevent reindeer from reaching the lichen they eat.

"No one on Earth is immune to Arctic warming," the AMAP report said, noting its effects were felt far and wide.

The melting of hundreds of billions of tonnes of ice each year in Greenland leads to rising sea levels, which endanger the lives of people living thousands of kilometres away.

The receding ice has opened up economic opportunities -- often to the dismay of environmental activists -- including new fishing zones, new commercial shipping routes, and easier access to potential mineral and oil and gas resources.

However, notes Trainor, "the potential for expansion of these industries is tempered by efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions and achieve goals established under the Paris Agreement."

The Arctic: key things to know
Reykjavik (AFP) May 20, 2021 - The Arctic, whose bordering countries met in Reykjavik on Thursday, is on the frontlines of global warming and is increasingly coveted for its natural resources and strategic location.

- What and where is it? -

The Arctic is an ocean surrounded by land, unlike the Antarctic at the other end of the world, which is a continent surrounded by water.

Its vast territory of 21 million square kilometres (7.7 million square miles) stretches from the North Pole to the Arctic Circle.

Bordered by North America, Asia and Europe, it spans eight countries or territories: Russia, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Iceland, Greenland, Canada and the US.

The Arctic Ocean connects to the Atlantic and to the Pacific via various straits.

- Polar nights -

Its extreme climate means living conditions can be very tough.

With temperatures sometimes falling below minus 50 degrees Celsius (minus 58 degrees Fahrenheit) and with a very low level of light for much of the year -- including "polar nights" when the sun doesn't rise above the horizon for months -- its only vegetation is the tundra, a vast, treeless area of low swampy plains.

At the height of winter, ice forms to cover 14 million square kilometres of ocean. In summer, it melts to less than five million square kilometres -- or even four million, with the annual melt being accelerated by global warming.

- Four million residents -

Some four million people live in the Arctic region, including around 500,000 people from dozens of distinct indigenous cultures such as the Inuit, the Aleut, the Sami and Yakut.

Many depend on the ocean and its wildlife for food and income.

An Arctic Council was set up in 1996 to discuss issues such as the environment and economic and social development, and foreign ministers of the member states meet every two years.

- Ecosystem threatened -

The Arctic, which is home to some 21,000 known animal and plant species, is one of the last vast regions of the world to remain in a wild state.

But the development of human activities including fishing, transport, tourism and drilling has threatened its fragile ecosystem.

Since the 1970s, climate change has pushed up temperatures in the Arctic three times as fast as the world average.

In 2019, the region saw its second hottest year since 1900 and the second smallest ice floe ever registered.

The ice shrank even more in 2020.

Global warming, which reduces the part of the Arctic Ocean that is permanently covered by ice, puts at risk species such as polar bears, bowhead whales, seals and sea birds.

While the melting of the Arctic ice pack in the ocean has no impact on sea levels, the melting of the huge Greenland ice sheet is a cause for concern.

Were it to completely disappear it would lead to a seven-metre (2.1 feet) rise in sea levels.

Other alarming phenomena include the emergence of major forest fires in remote areas and the melting of the permafrost, which houses large quantities of methane, a greenhouse gas much more powerful than CO2.

- Undiscovered resources -

The Arctic is estimated to hold around 13 percent of the world's undiscovered oil and 30 percent of its natural gas reserves.

The melting of the Arctic ice cover has made the region more accessible to shipping as well as oil and gas extraction, making it increasingly coveted by neighbouring and distant countries, including China.

Russia has made the development of the region's natural resources a priority, while Norway estimates that the Barents Sea holds more than 60 percent of the country's untapped oil reserves, although drilling there has so far been disappointing.

Former US president Donald Trump approved oil and gas exploration in the US's biggest wildlife reserve in Alaska in August, but his successor Joe Biden has since blocked those efforts.

Greenland is also attracting interest from mining companies, although the new local government has vowed to stop a controversial uranium and rare earth mineral mine project.

- Territorial disputes -

Alongside interest in resources there has been an escalation of territorial claims in recent years with Moscow, Ottawa, Oslo and Copenhagen all weighing in with demands to extend their portion of the continental shelf.

The US is still gathering data to potentially make a claim, even though it has not ratified the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.

- Strategic shipping route -

Thanks to the melting ice, Russia is counting on the development of maritime traffic via the northeastern passage of the Arctic linking Europe to Asia. It has opened military and scientific bases there over the past years.

Meanwhile, Canada sees the potential to considerably reduce the distance between the Atlantic and Pacific by using the northwestern passage off its coast.

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Russia warns West against Arctic encroachment ahead of talks
Moscow (AFP) May 17, 2021
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Monday warned Western countries against staking claims in the Arctic, as global warming makes the region more accessible and a site of global competition. Lavrov's comments came ahead of a ministerial meeting of the Arctic Council that comprises Russia, the United States, Canada, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Finland and Iceland on Wednesday and Thursday in Reykjavik. "It has been absolutely clear for everyone for a long time that this is our territory, this ... read more