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Moon's nuclear diplomacy a 'dangerous gamble': analysts
By Sunghee Hwang
Seoul (AFP) Sept 21, 2018

Kim seeks second Trump summit 'at an early date': Moon
Seoul (AFP) Sept 20, 2018 - North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is hoping for a second summit with US President Donald Trump soon, the South's President Moon Jae-in said Thursday after a three-day trip to his neighbour.

"Chairman Kim Jong Un expressed hopes for a second summit with President Trump at an early date," Moon told reporters on his return to Seoul.

Kim and Trump held a historic and high-profile meeting in Singapore in June, where the North's leader committed to work towards denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula, but no details were agreed.

Washington and Pyongyang have subsequently sparred over what that means and how it will be achieved, with the Trump administration consistently referring to the denuclearisation of North Korea specifically.

The process had become deadlocked until Moon's trip to Pyongyang, where Kim agreed to permanently dismantle a missile testing site.

Experts were sceptical but the Trump administration immediately welcomed the move, with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo inviting his North Korean counterpart to meet next week on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly.

Kim also hoped Pompeo would soon visit the North again, Moon said, and was seeking "fast progress in denuclearisation".

Trump announces identities of two sets of N. Korea remains
Washington (AFP) Sept 20, 2018 - President Donald Trump on Thursday announced the names of the first two US troops to be identified after dozens of sets of remains were repatriated from North Korea in July.

Pyongyang had returned 55 cases of remains from the 1950-53 Korean War, in line with an agreement between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at their summit in Singapore in June.

Trump said the two soldiers were Master Sergeant Charles McDaniel and Private First Class William Jones.

"These HEROES are home, they may Rest In Peace, and hopefully their families can have closure," Trump said on Twitter.

McDaniel's military identity tag, known as a dog tag, had been found among the remains. It was given to his sons at a public event in Washington last month.

McDaniel was an Army medic thought to have been killed in action in October 1950 during a Chinese attack deep in North Korea.

Defense Secretary Jim Mattis recently said forensic scientists had been able to quickly identify the two sets of remains thanks to a variety of information, including where they had been found.

But it could take years to identify all the remains and experts are using a range of techniques including DNA analysis and dental records.

The Pentagon has said UN military officials met with North Korean counterparts this month to discuss the repatriation of additional remains.

Friday marks this year's National POW/MIA Recognition Day.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in has embarked on a "dangerous gamble", analysts said, after he secured only minimal concessions from Kim Jong Un to reboot the North's nuclear negotiations with Washington.

Moon flew to Pyongyang this week for his third summit with Kim seeking a concrete gesture to rekindle the stalled denuclearisation talks between the United States and the North.

But he returned Thursday with agreements that fell far short of US demands for a "final, fully verified denuclearisation" of North Korea.

The South Korean leader prioritised Seoul's trust-building process with Pyongyang over denuclearisation, said Shin Beom-cheol, an analyst at the Asan Institute of Policy Studies.

"It's a dangerous gamble," Shin said, adding that Seoul's emollient approach could facilitate efforts by the North to hold on to its nuclear weapons.

South Korea will be blamed if Pyongyang does not denuclearise, he said, adding: "It will put cracks in its alliance with Washington and Seoul will lose credibility."

Moon, who also met the North Korean leader in April and May this year, was instrumental in brokering the historic Singapore summit between US President Donald Trump and Kim in June.

Kim backed the denuclearisation of the "Korean peninsula" after meeting Trump, but no details were agreed and Washington and Pyongyang have since sparred over what that means and how it will be achieved.

- 'Sleight of hand' -

At the Pyongyang summit, Kim agreed to permanently close the North's Tongchang-ri missile engine test site and launch pad under the eyes of foreign observers.

Analysts quickly dismissed the promise, saying the facility was outdated and no longer needed as the already existing missiles were produced elsewhere.

The North Korean leader also offered to take further steps such dismantling the country's best known nuclear facility in Yongbyon, if the US carried out "corresponding measures".

Pyongyang is believed to have produced its plutonium at Yongbyon, which is also known to house a uranium enrichment plant.

But Sung-yoon Lee of the Fletcher School at Tufts University noted that Yongbyon has been mothballed before, only to be reactivated when negotiations with the US fell through.

"The closure of Yongbyon, even were it actually to take place, does not mean a major concession for Kim has alternate means to building more bombs by enriching uranium," Lee added.

Kim had already declared the North's nuclear development complete and the moves were "a sleight of hand for ensnaring the US... which will enable Kim to buy more time and money with which to perfect his own nuclear posture", Lee told AFP.

Rather than shuttering outdated testing facilities, North Korea needed to provide a comprehensive list of its nuclear assets, said Cha Du-hyeogn of the Asan Institute.

"Right now it's just offering to showcase known facilities and that's unacceptable," he added.

- Trump-Kim: Round Two -

The US welcomed Kim's latest promise, saying it was ready for immediate talks aimed at denuclearising the North with Trump quickly tweeting: "Very exciting!"

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo -- whose visit to Pyongyang last month was abruptly cancelled by Trump -- also praised Kim's "important commitments" and offered to meet his North Korean counterpart in New York, but analysts noted that Washington was acting with caution.

"The issue is whether Pompeo will return to North Korea but that's not immediately happening," Cha said.

But maintaining the momentum for denuclearisation talks was vital, said Kim Heung-kyu, a professor at Ajou University, calling the Pyongyang statement "a very significant achievement".

The new impetus will be a relief for Trump who is embroiled in multiple scandals ahead of the US midterm elections in November, he noted, saying developments with North Korea will help "divert attention".

Moon probably convinced Kim by telling him that there was not a lot of time left until Trump's political interest drifted elsewhere, he added. "If it wasn't for this, both Kim and Trump would not have budged."

The biggest challenge may come soon, if the two mercurial leaders reunite for a second headline-grabbing meeting.

Moon said after his Pyongyang trip that Kim was hoping for another summit with Trump "at an early date".

"The real problem is Trump himself is eager for a follow-up meeting with Kim," said Lee of Tufts University.

That "will entail more concessions", he added, such as "further relaxation of sanctions enforcement and normalisation of Kim's image and stature".


Related Links
Learn about nuclear weapons doctrine and defense at SpaceWar.com
Learn about missile defense at SpaceWar.com
All about missiles at SpaceWar.com
Learn about the Superpowers of the 21st Century at SpaceWar.com


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NUKEWARS
N. Korea's Kim to visit Seoul, shut missile site
Seoul (AFP) Sept 19, 2018
North Korea's Kim Jong Un agreed to make a historic visit to Seoul soon and close a missile testing site in front of international inspectors at a summit with the South's President Moon Jae-in in Pyongyang Wednesday. Progress on the key issue of the North's nuclear arsenal was limited, but the two signed a document to strengthen ties between the two halves of the divided peninsula. Building on a growing rapprochement, they agreed to create a facility to hold family reunions at any time, work tow ... read more

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