The study highlights that the MENA region is nearing an average warming of 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels. Without adaptation measures, this trend could render parts of the area uninhabitable.
"When we talk about the Paris Agreement, we say that we should try to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, and that we should not exceed two degrees Celsius," said Abdul Malik, a climate scientist at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) and the study's lead author. "But in parts of the Middle East and North Africa, warming has already surpassed 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius."
High-Resolution Modeling Sheds New Light
The study, published in the 'Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres', utilized advanced climate models (CMIP5 and CMIP6) to analyze warming patterns across the MENA region at a detailed spatial resolution of 81 square kilometers (50 square miles). This approach revealed significant variability in warming rates across the region.
"Although previous studies have shown that the region is warming much faster than other areas, we have shown that the warming rate is not consistent across the region," Malik explained. "And this warming rate could vary between 1.5 to 3.5 times faster than the global average."
The research predicts that MENA could surpass 3 and 4 degrees Celsius (5.4 and 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) warming thresholds nearly 30 years earlier than the global average, particularly in inland areas of the Arabian Peninsula.
Unprecedented Heat on the Horizon
Already among the hottest places on Earth, the MENA region is expected to warm even further. The central Arabian Peninsula, in particular, is warming at a rate comparable to that of the Arctic. Under low-emission scenarios, the region could see an average temperature rise of 2.6 degrees Celsius (4.7 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100. Under high-emission scenarios, the rise could reach 7.6 degrees Celsius (13.7 degrees Fahrenheit).
This intense warming is exacerbated by the region's arid conditions, which limit cooling via soil moisture evaporation - a factor more common in humid areas.
"Desert regions warm almost as fast as polar regions, and they have much higher temperatures," said Georgiy Stenchikov, a retired climate scientist and coauthor of the study. "So the temperature threshold is reached much faster than in polar regions."
Coastal areas, such as those along the southern and western Arabian Peninsula, are warming more slowly due to cooling effects from the ocean. However, inland areas and the peninsula's eastern coast are heating rapidly.
The warming also shows seasonal variation, with summer hotspots concentrated in central Saudi Arabia and Algeria and winter hotspots emerging in Mauritania and Iran's Elburz Mountains.
Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies
Meeting global low-emissions targets could slow the rate of warming in the MENA region by up to 38%. Cities in the region could also implement urban greening and architectural innovations to adapt to the intensifying heat.
"Adaptation will be necessary, and these adaptation measures could be tested and developed in the Middle East and North Africa," Stenchikov said. "Global warming is a global problem, so you cannot prevent it in just one place. But you can develop artificial environments in regions with high populations."
Research Report:Accelerated Historical and Future Warming in the Middle East and North Africa
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