One of the report's primary findings is the increasing dominance of a few mega-constellation operators in the satellite industry. Specifically, four major broadband non-geostationary orbit (NGSO) constellations - Starlink, Kuiper, G60, and GuoWang - will drive 65% of the satellite demand in terms of quantity, though they will account for just 14% of the overall manufacturing and launch value due to economies of scale enabled by vertical integration.
Conversely, around 2,900 satellites, each weighing over 500 kg and operated by 170 satellite operators, will comprise 70% of the satellite manufacturing and launch market value but only 7% of the total satellite count. This reflects the diverse needs of various applications, orbits, and technical requirements, impacting satellite size and design.
The report also predicts that commercial geostationary orbit (GEO) communication satellite demand will remain stable, with an average of 12 orders annually. However, the combined manufacturing and launch value of these satellites is expected to decline by 25% due to the increased variety of smaller satellites entering the market.
The report notes that recent mergers and acquisitions - such as the Viasat-Inmarsat and Eutelsat-OneWeb deals - along with ongoing talks between companies like SES and Intelsat, will contribute to fleet consolidation and multi-orbit strategies.
On the government side, civil and defense agencies from the six major space-faring nations (U.S., China, EU, ESA, India, and Japan) are expected to account for two-thirds of the manufacturing and launch market value. The growing influence of large commercial satellite operators could pressure smaller competitors and suppliers. Traditional satellite manufacturers, already facing cost-cutting demands, may experience further pressure on their margins as these dominant operators push for better pricing. This trend may lead to more mergers or partnerships within the satellite manufacturing sector.
Maxime Puteaux, Principal at Novaspace and editor of the report, commented: "The growing concentration of demand from a small number of vertically integrated customers, along with end-user requirements for cost-effective services, will push towards consolidation across the value chain, from satellite operators to their suppliers." He added, "While the demand for satellites is booming, the industry faces significant challenges regarding manufacturing capacity, launch infrastructure, and market concentration. Although the end of the scarcity of Western launchers is in sight, it has not yet substantially impacted the bottlenecks or challenged SpaceX's dominance."
The forecasts rely on a comprehensive analysis of satellite demand, assessing downstream markets, satellite operator strategies, maturity, and the role of emerging players. Since the future of satellite demand is not merely the sum of current projects, Novaspace applies various discount factors depending on each project's maturity, which influences the forecasted numbers. All data presented in the report reflect Novaspace's views and may not necessarily represent the opinions of operators.
Research Report:Satellites to be Built and Launched, 27th edition
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