24/7 Space News
SHAKE AND BLOW
NASA Analysis Finds Strong El Nino Could Bring Extra Floods This Winter
An unusually high tide, called a King Tide, floods a highway on-ramp in Northern California in January 2023. Sea level rise and El Ninos can exacerbate this type of flooding. California King Tides Project.
NASA Analysis Finds Strong El Nino Could Bring Extra Floods This Winter
by Staff Writers
Pasadena CA (JPL) Nov 09, 2023

An analysis by NASA's sea level change science team finds that if a strong El Nino develops this winter, cities along the western coasts of the Americas could see an increase in the frequency of high-tide flooding that can swamp roads and spill into low-lying buildings.

El Nino is a periodic climate phenomenon characterized by higher-than-normal sea levels and warmer-than-average ocean temperatures along the equatorial Pacific. These conditions can spread poleward along the western coasts of the Americas. El Nino, which is still developing this year, can bring more rain than usual to the U.S. Southwest and drought to countries in the western Pacific like Indonesia. These impacts typically occur in January through March.

The NASA analysis finds that a strong El Nino could result in up to five instances of a type of flooding called a 10-year flood event this winter in cities including Seattle and San Diego. Places like La Libertad and Baltra in Ecuador could get up to three of these 10-year flood events this winter. This type of flooding doesn't normally occur along the west coast of the Americas outside of El Nino years. The researchers note that by the 2030s, rising seas and climate change could result in these cities experiencing similar numbers of 10-year floods annually, with no El Nino required.

"I'm a little surprised that the analysis found these 10-year events could become commonplace so quickly," said Phil Thompson, an oceanographer at the University of Hawaii and a member of NASA's sea level change science team, which performed the analysis. "I would have thought maybe by the 2040s or 2050s."

Ten-year floods are those that have a one in 10 chance of occurring in any given year. They're a measure of how high local sea levels become: The extent of flooding in a particular city or community depends on several factors, including a region's topography and the location of homes and infrastructure relative to the ocean. Ten-year floods can result in what the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration classifies as moderate flooding, with some inundation of roads and buildings, and the possible need to evacuate people or move belongings to higher ground.

NASA's coastal flooding analysis finds that by the 2030s, during strong El Nino years, cities on the west coast of the Americas could see up to 10 of these 10-year flood events. By the 2050s, strong El Ninos may result in as many as 40 instances of these events in a given year.

Watching Sea Levels Rise
Water expands as it warms, so sea levels tend to be higher in places with warmer water. Researchers and forecasters monitor ocean temperatures as well as water levels to spot the formation and development of an El Nino.

"Climate change is already shifting the baseline sea level along coastlines around the world," said Ben Hamlington, a sea level researcher at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California and lead for the agency's sea level change science team.

Sea levels are rising in response to planetary warming, as Earth's atmosphere and ocean are heating up and ice sheets and shelves melt. This has already increased the number of high-tide, or nuisance, flooding days coastal cities experience throughout the year. Phenomena like El Ninos and storm surges, which temporarily boost sea levels, compound these effects.

Missions that monitor sea levels, including the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite and Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich, help to monitor El Ninos in the near term. SWOT in particular, collects data on sea levels right up to the coast, which can help to improve sea level rise projections. That kind of information could aid policymakers and planners in preparing their communities for rising seas in the next decades.

"As climate change accelerates, some cities will see flooding five to 10 times more often. SWOT will keep watch on these changes to ensure coastal communities are not caught off guard," said Nadya Vinogradova Shiffer, SWOT program scientist and director of the ocean physics program at NASA Headquarters in Washington.

Related Links
NASA Sea Level Science
Bringing Order To A World Of Disasters
When the Earth Quakes
A world of storm and tempest

Subscribe Free To Our Daily Newsletters
Tweet

RELATED CONTENT
The following news reports may link to other Space Media Network websites.
SHAKE AND BLOW
Somalia floods kill 29, displace 300,000 people
Mogadishu (AFP) Nov 8, 2023
Flash flooding in southwestern Somalia has claimed the lives of more than two dozen people and displaced hundreds of thousands from their homes, an official said, as El Nino downpours lash East Africa. Since the beginning of the month, ferocious rainstorms have hit Somalia and its neighbours Kenya and Ethiopia, triggering landslides and submerging villages and farms. The flooding comes after Somalia and parts of Ethiopia and Kenya suffered the region's worst drought in four decades. "We war ... read more

SHAKE AND BLOW
SpaceX Dragon docks with International Space Station carrying new gear

NSF funds annual solicitation seeking physical science research leveraging the ISS National Lab

Leidos Enhances ISS Capabilities with New xPWD Water System

Lost in space: $100,000 tool bag from NASA spacewalk

SHAKE AND BLOW
Hypergolic rocket engine with advanced throttling tested by Sierra Space

SpaceX hopes for second Starship flight test next week

UK and European Space Agency Commit Funding for Shetland Satellite Launch

ESA further boosts RFA One across Europe

SHAKE AND BLOW
NASA's Mars Missions Persist Through Solar Conjunction

A green glow in the Martian night

AI Chemist creates Mars-compatible oxygen catalyst from meteorites

China develops 'GoMars' Model for enhanced Mars mission planning

SHAKE AND BLOW
New scientific experimental samples from China's space station return to Earth

Shenzhou XVI crew return after 'very cool journey'

Chinese astronauts return to Earth with fruitful experimental results

Chinese astronauts return to Earth after 'successful' mission

SHAKE AND BLOW
ESA Embracing Commercial Space Stations with Airbus and Voyager Space Partnership

A third pair of SES' O3b mPower satellites launches from Cape Canaveral

EBAD's NEA Payload Release Modules prove crucial in SpaceX Transporter-9 mission

SpaceX Launches Planet Lab's Pelican-1 and SuperDoves

SHAKE AND BLOW
Airbus Introduces "Detumbler" Device to Address Satellite Tumbling in Low Earth Orbit

ICEYE expands SAR satellite constellation with four new satellites

D-Orbit Welcomes Marubeni Corporation as Lead Investor in Series C Funding

ILLUMA-T launches to the International Space Station

SHAKE AND BLOW
Extended habitability of exoplanets due to subglacial water

An ammonia trail to exoplanets

Major $200M gift propels scientific research in the search for life beyond earth

Webb findings support long-proposed process of planet formation

SHAKE AND BLOW
Juno finds Jupiter's winds penetrate in cylindrical layers

Salts and organics observed on Ganymede's surface by June

New jet stream discovered in Jupiter's upper atmosphere

Uranus aurora discovery offers clues to habitable icy worlds

Subscribe Free To Our Daily Newsletters




The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2024 - Space Media Network. All websites are published in Australia and are solely subject to Australian law and governed by Fair Use principals for news reporting and research purposes. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA news reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. All articles labeled "by Staff Writers" include reports supplied to Space Media Network by industry news wires, PR agencies, corporate press officers and the like. Such articles are individually curated and edited by Space Media Network staff on the basis of the report's information value to our industry and professional readership. Advertising does not imply endorsement, agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) Statement Our advertisers use various cookies and the like to deliver the best ad banner available at one time. All network advertising suppliers have GDPR policies (Legitimate Interest) that conform with EU regulations for data collection. By using our websites you consent to cookie based advertising. If you do not agree with this then you must stop using the websites from May 25, 2018. Privacy Statement. Additional information can be found here at About Us.