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CLIMATE SCIENCE
Geoengineering: 'Plan B' for the planet
By Marlowe HOOD
Paris (AFP) April 29, 2021

Germany could lose last glaciers in 10 years
Berlin (AFP) April 29, 2021 - Germany's glaciers are melting at a faster pace than feared and the country could lose its last ice caps in 10 years, an alarming report said Thursday.

"The days of glaciers in Bavaria are numbered. And even sooner than expected," said Thorsten Glauber, environment minister of the southern region, home to Germany's ice-capped Alps.

"The last Bavarian Alpine glacier could be gone in 10 years."

Scientists had previously estimated the glaciers would be around until the middle of the century.

But the melting has accelerated dramatically over the last years.

Located in the Zugspitze area and in the Berchtesgaden Alps, Germany's five glaciers have lost about two-thirds of their volume in the past decade.

Their surface areas have also shrunk by a third -- equivalent to around 36 football fields.

Issuing a stark warning over global warming, Glauber stressed that the glaciers are "not only a monument of Earth's history in the form of snow and ice".

"They are thermometers for the state of our climate," he added.

A global study released Wednesday found nearly all the world's glaciers are losing mass at an ever increasing pace, contributing to more than a fifth of global sea level rise this century.

An international team of researchers analysing images taken by a NASA satellite said that between 2000-2019, the world's glaciers lost an average of 267 billion tonnes of ice each year -- enough to submerge Switzerland under six metres of water every year.

The report came as meteorologists in Germany said this April has been the coldest in four decades.

Like elsewhere in Europe, Germany has recorded wild weather in recent years. After a winter in which temperatures plunged well below freezing in February, the mercury rose to 25.9 degrees on April 1 before slipping more than 15 degrees for much of the rest of the month.

Environmentalists blame global warming for the shifts and have been urging governments to do more to halt the damaging trend.

Under the 2015 Paris Agreement countries aim to keep the global temperature increase to under two degrees Celsius, and ideally closer to 1.5 degrees, by 2050.

Climate activists scored a landmark victory Thursday in a case against Chancellor Angela Merkel's government as the Constitutional Court ruled Berlin's environment protection plan insufficient.

Dismissed a decade ago as far-fetched and dangerous, schemes to tame the effects of global warming by engineering the climate have migrated from the margins of policy debates towards centre stage.

"Plan A" remains tackling the problem at its source. But the UN's top climate science body has made it clear that slashing carbon pollution won't be enough to keep Earth from overheating.

That has opened the door to a host of geoengineering schemes, from building underwater walls to shore up an Antarctic glacier the size of Britain to injecting a giant sunscreen into the stratosphere.

Here is a menu of "Plan B" geoengineering solutions, along with their potential drawbacks:

- Direct CO2 capture -

Experiments have shown it is possible to suck planet-warming carbon dioxide directly from the air, converting it into fuel pellets or storing it underground.

A company backed by Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates launched a pilot facility in Canada in 2015, and another company operates one in Iceland.

DRAWBACK: The technology is currently prohibitively expensive and might take decades to operate at scale.

- Solar radiation management -

Unlike other strategies, solar radiation management does not target CO2. The goal is simple: prevent some of the sun's rays from hitting the planet's surface, forcing them back up into space.

One idea is to inject or spray tiny reflective particles into the stratosphere -- possibly with balloons, aircraft or through giant tubes.

Nature sometimes does the same: Debris from the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines lowered the planet's average surface temperature for a year or two afterwards.

Sixty-six million years ago, a ten-kilometre wide asteroid strike threw up so much debris that it wiped out land-based dinosaurs built for steamy tropical climes.

In April, a balloon test flight in Sweden for the Harvard-led project SCoPEx, short for "Stratospheric Controlled Perturbation Experiment", was postponed amid concerns over the implications for the environment and people in the country.

In Australia, trials of a controversial technique to spray microscopic salt crystals into the air above the threatened Great Barrier Reef to make the clouds brighter began last year.

Australian scientists say if successful and combined with other climate and protection measures this could help slow the decline of the reef.

DRAWBACKS: Even if it works as intended, solar radiation management would do nothing to reduce atmospheric CO2, which is making oceans too acidic. There is also the danger of knock-on consequences, including changes in rainfall patterns, and what scientists call "termination shock" -- a sudden warming if the system were to fail.

- Afforestation -

Extensive planting of trees could significantly slow the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, which currently stands at more than 510 parts per million, 50 percent more than 150 years ago.

DRAWBACK: Even if deforestation could be reversed -- more than 100,000 square kilometres of tropical forests have disappeared each year since 2013 -- the huge number of trees needed to put a dent in CO2 emissions would clash with food and biofuel crops.

- BECCS -

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) marries a natural process with a high-tech one.

The first step is to plant rapeseed, sugarcane, corn or "2nd-generation" biofuel crops such as switchgrass, which pull CO2 from the air while growing. The second step is while burning the harvested plants for energy to sequester the CO2 produced.

In theory, the result is less CO2 in the atmosphere than when the process started. Virtually all climate change models projecting a future consistent with the Paris Agreement's temperature targets assume a key role for BECCS.

DRAWBACK: Studies calculate that up to twice the area of India would need to be given over to biofuels, putting BECCS in conflict with food crops. Such schemes would also require vast amounts of fresh water.

- Ocean fertilisation -

Microscopic ocean plants called phytoplankton gobble up CO2 and drag it to the bottom of the ocean when they die. Their colony size is limited by a lack of natural iron, but experiments have shown that sowing the ocean with iron sulphate powder creates large blooms.

DRAWBACKS: Scientists worry about unintended impacts. Die-offs of plankton, for example, use up oxygen, which could create massive "dead zones" in the oceans, something already on the rise.

- Enhanced weathering -

Natural weathering of rocks removes about one billion tonnes of CO2 from the atmosphere every year -- about two percent of total man-made C02 emissions.

Spreading a powdered form of a greenish iron silicate called olivine across certain landscapes can mimic that process, experiments have shown.

DRAWBACKS: It would be expensive to mine and mill enough olivine to make a difference.

- Biochar -

Biochar is charcoal made by heating plant waste -- rice straw, peanut shells, wood scraps -- over long periods in low-oxygen conditions. It can store CO2 for long periods, and also enriches soil.

DRAWBACK: The scientific jury is still out on how quickly this method could be scaled up, and on the stability of biochar used as a fertiliser.

mh-klm/wai

MICROSOFT


Related Links
Climate Science News - Modeling, Mitigation Adaptation


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CLIMATE SCIENCE
Top German court finds govt climate plans fall short
Berlin (AFP) April 29, 2021
Germany's highest court ruled Thursday that the government's flagship climate protection plan was "insufficient" as it failed to set emission reduction targets beyond 2030, thereby threatening to infringe on the freedoms of future generations. Partially upholding a series of claims by environmentalists and young people, Germany's Constitutional Court ruled that Berlin's current goal of reducing CO2 emissions to 55 percent of 1990 levels by 2030 was "incompatible with fundamental rights". The cur ... read more

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