COP26 sees push to speed up carbon-cutting vows

With science warning that only swift action can avoid cataclysmic global warming, countries already feeling the lash of climate change are demanding that the timetable for updating national carbon-cutting pledges be radically accelerated.

Currently, the nearly 200 nations that submitted voluntary emissions reduction schemes under the 2015 Paris Agreement have agreed to update those plans every five years, a process described as a "ratchet mechanism".

The first set of revisions came due at the end of 2020, but most were not submitted until this year because of the Covid pandemic.

China, by far the world's top carbon polluter, filed its update only last week, and India -- the number four emitter -- did so at the COP26 summit in Glasgow on Monday.

But even if all national pledges are honoured -- a big "if" -- Earth's surface would still warm a "catastrophic" 2.7 degrees above pre-industrial levels, according to the UN, a far cry from the Paris treaty target of 1.5C.

The next scheduled rendezvous for upping ambition isn't until 2025.

Sobering projections, however, from the UN's science authority along with a crescendo of unprecedented heatwaves, flooding and wildfires, strongly suggest this is not soon enough.

Leading the charge for a more compressed timetable is UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

"Let's have no illusions," he said on the opening day of the talks.

"If commitments fall short by the end of the COP, countries must revisit their national climate plans and policies. Not every five years. Every year, until keeping 1.5C is assured."

- A 'non-paper' -

The idea got further backing on Thursday from Bangladeshi Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen, who said "major emitters" should raise their 2030 targets at every annual climate conference until they are aligned with the 1.5C goal.

"We're hoping, expecting, this COP will respond to our demands as a moral compass of the international community," he said at a press conference.

Various proposals for including a call for nations to review and improve plans to shrink their carbon footprints are already "on the table" in preliminary discussions among negotiators, according several sources at the talks.

A first draft -- known as a "non-paper" in UN climate jargon -- could be circulated as early as Friday, they said.

Momentum has been building on the issue.

More than 50 developing countries in the Climate Vulnerable Forum, have called for a pact that would "mandate yearly ambition raising for governments, and especially major carbon emitters for every year through to 2025".

G20 nations, which account for nearly 80 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, have also indicated an openness to up the pace.

A communique issued on Sunday at the close of the G20 summit in Rome committed to "further action this decade", but it was trailed by a string of caveats indicating just how difficult ramping up carbon reduction pledges in the short term is going to be.

"It depends on the language," said Alden Meyer, a senior associate at climate policy think tank E3G.

- A non-starter -

"If it sounds like it's mandatory, then China and other countries will say that is re-interpreting the Paris Agreement -- which is correct."

While signatories are collectively enjoined to reach the treaty's temperature targets, individual contributions are strictly on a voluntary basis.

A call for yearly updates would also run into a practical problem, analysts pointed out.

It took years of internal wrangling before the European Union succeeded in increasing it's 2030 target for greenhouse reduction from 40 to 55 percent, compared to 1990 levels.

Trying to do that every year -- whether in the EU, the United States or Japan -- would be nearly impossible, they suggest.

A more realistic goals would be picking an interim year by which nations would be asked to submit new plans on a voluntary basis.

"Most people have been talking about 2023," said Meyer.

The Paris Agreement mandates a "stock take" in that year, an accounting exercise to evaluate the effectiveness of efforts to date.

The best that countries pushing for yearly -- or more frequent -- updates of carbon reduction plans can hope for, Meyer and other veterans of the UN climate process agree, is something aspirational.

"Anything beyond an encouragement for greater efforts on a voluntary basis would be a non-starter for China, India and Russia," said a senior diplomat.

CO2 rebound as climate summit sees emissions pledges
Glasgow (AFP) Nov 4, 2021 - Global CO2 emissions are set to rebound to pre-pandemic levels next year, according to an assessment published on Thursday as countries signed up to fossil-fuel cutting pledges criticised as too vague by campaigners.

The grim emissions assessment was billed as a "reality check" for nations gathered at the COP26 summit in Glasgow, seen as a last chance to halt catastrophic climate change.

Moderate progress this week was checked by the release of the Global Carbon Project's annual report, which showed that emissions from gas and coal will rise in 2021 by more than they dropped during the pandemic.

It suggested CO2 emissions could eclipse the 40-billion-tonne record set in 2019, which some have predicted -- and many hoped -- would be a peak.

China alone will account for 31 percent of global emissions this year as it seeks to power its economy past Covid-19, the report said.

"This report is a reality check," co-author Corinne Le Quere, a professor of climate change science at Britain's University of East Anglia, told AFP.

"It shows what's happening in the real world while we are here in Glasgow talking about tackling climate change."

- 'Right side of history' -

The report came as two pledges from nations and finance institutions opened a path to accelerated movement away from dirty energy.

Twenty countries, including major funders the United States and Canada, vowed to "end new direct public support for the international unabated fossil fuel energy sector by the end of 2022".

Unabated fossil fuel projects are those that do not deploy technology to absorb the carbon pollution they produce.

China, South Korea and Japan -- all major overseas fossil fuel funders -- did not sign on, even though these countries have separately made similar pledges.

While ending international funding is seen as a boost to the COP26 summit and key to keeping the Paris Agreement goal of limiting temperature rises to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared with pre-industrial levels, even more crucial is quickly drawing down domestic use of coal, by far the dirtiest fossil fuel.

Host Britain announced that more than 40 countries had signed up to a commitment to phase out coal use within their borders within decades.

Among the signatories were South Korea, Indonesia and Poland -- all among the top 10 globally in terms of coal-fired power capacity.

COP26 organisers say that 23 countries had promised for the first time to end their coal use, though several of these nations, including Poland, do in fact have pre-standing phase-out commitments.

Mohamed Adow, director of the Kenya-based climate think-tank Power Shift Africa, said it was "hugely difficult" to assess the real impact of what he called a "blitz" of announcements.

"If these countries want to be taken seriously on their latest announcements, then they should first halt the new fossil fuel projects they are licensing at home, end fossil fuel subsidies and shift the fossil fuel financing to renewables," he said.

Swedish activist Greta Thunberg was unimpressed by the announcements, tweeting: "This is no longer a climate conference. This is a Global North greenwash festival."

Earlier this week more than 100 countries agreed to slash their emissions of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, by at least 30 percent this decade.

However, China and India -- the largest and fourth-largest greenhouse gas emitters -- have not signed up to either pledge.

Thousands of youth activists are expected to attend protests on Friday in Glasgow to demand quicker climate action.

- 'Shut off the spigot' -

The International Energy Agency has said that there can be no new fossil fuel projects -- domestic or overseas -- from today to keep the 1.5C goal in play.

Recent research by Oil Change International showed that between 2018 and 2020, the G20 funded overseas fossil fuel projects to the tune of nearly $200 billion, mainly through multilateral development banks.

"Last year at this time I would not have thought we would see countries commit to ending billions of dollars in support for international fossil fuel projects," said Kate DeAngelis, international finance programme manager at Friends of the Earth US.

"Countries, especially the US, must hold firm to these commitments, shutting off the spigot to fossil fuel companies."

Finance is an especially big bone of contention, with nations already dealing with supercharged droughts and flooding demanding wealthy emitters provide money and expertise to help them to green their grids and adapt to climate change.

On Thursday the UN said that developing countries need up to 10 times more funding than currently available levels.

Related Links
Climate Science News - Modeling, Mitigation Adaptation

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