Indeed, Bashar Assad's verbal attack on his enemies carried the punch of Israel's assault on Hezbollah. Assad lambasted Israel, the Bush administration, the pro-U.S. Arab regimes and the March 14 coalition of anti-Syrian Lebanese politicians.

Assad's message, according to a Syrian blogger identified only as "Fadi" and posted on Joshua Landis' Syriacomment.com, was simple: "Our camp won, yours lost, accept defeat... here are my terms." While Bashar may only be partially right in saying his camp won, dictating his terms of surrender may be somewhat premature. The fat lady has yet to sing.

Hezbollah can claim victory only in the sense that it did not suffer a defeat and that it survived a 33-day war with Israel.

Yet if victory can be claimed by the heaps of rubble that villages in south Lebanon along with sections of Beirut's southern suburbs have become, or if it can be claimed on the bodies of the 1,000 Lebanese civilians killed, or furthermore if it can be claimed on the country's infrastructure which has been totally destroyed, its economy ruined, then yes, by all means, Hezbollah has scored a victory.

Having fought this war by proxy, Syria finds it can claim victory by that same proxy.

Still, looking at the outcome through another lens raises questions as to just how much of a victory Hezbollah attained. Hezbollah was forced from the border area to north of the Litani River. The Shebaa Farms are still in Israeli hands and the prisoners Hezbollah intended to liberate are still in Israeli jails. And if Israel is to be believed, Hezbollah lost anywhere between 500 and 600 fighters. Additionally, the issue of disarming its militia is now more than ever on the front burner.

Also very much on the front burner is the schism between Syria and its opponents, now in the open.

"The United States is yet to start calculating its political losses in the region after its failed adventure in Lebanon," says the Syrian blogger. According to information collected by Fadi, "Bashar's popularity in the Arab street now can only be eclipsed by that of Nasrallah." Syrian college students have taken to posting Hassan Nasrallah's photos as screensavers on their cellular phones and use phrases from his speeches as ring-tones.

But much like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Assad, who is riding a wave of popularity acquired thanks to Hezbollah's efforts, risks getting caught in his own spin.

"The regime in Syria is bargaining with the blood of the children of Qana, Gaza, and Baghdad in order to create strife," said Saad Hariri, son of assassinated former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. The young Hariri called the Damascus regime one of "hatred, strife and lies."

If President Bush has a vision for a "new Middle East," the Syrian president's vision is a very different one. Judging from his tone, his choice of words and his demeanor, Bashar made it clear to his opponents that Syria will not tolerate Arab countries who side with America's neo-cons. "Syria will not be the punching bag of the opportunists...," Bashar is reported to have said.

To the anti-Syrian Lebanese March 14 coalition Bashar labeled them "pro-Israeli traitors," warning them that he can still count on a number of allies in Lebanon.

To the Israelis Bashar said: "We are not afraid to fight to get back the Golan." Fadi, the Syrian blogger reports that in his travels around the country during the third and fourth weeks of the war, everywhere he went he found "Syrians psychologically preparing for war (with Israel) with the highest of morale."

The Bush administration must understand that Syria is the linchpin to both the solution and the problems in the Middle East. Continue to shun Damascus and can create all sorts of problems, such as undermining the peacekeeping mission in south Lebanon.

As special Middle East coordinator under President Bill Clinton, Dennis Ross helped broker two understandings that brought conflicts between Hezbollah and Israel to an end. And both times, Ross writes in the Washington Post, "to bring about an enduring cease-fire, we needed to deal with Syria"

Ross writes: "This time, however, the cease-fire deal was done without the Syrians. The question is: Can the terms of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701 be fulfilled without Syria being part of the equation? It doesn't seem likely."

As Ross points out, the implementation of Resolution 1701 will depend to a large degree on the Syrians. Ross cautions that if Syria is determined to frustrate the new multinational force, it can easily do so. It will be impossible for the 15,000 Lebanese troops and the 15,000 UNIFIL soldiers to effectively police every mountain road, path and trail to prevent Syria re-arming Hezbollah.

Despite having withdrawn its army from Lebanon, Syria remains in a position to torpedo any attempt at normality, if it wanted to. Ross clearly states: "...there should be no illusions. History is full of good resolutions on Lebanon that have not been implemented because the Syrians had the power to block them.

"The Bush administration and the French should try to change the Syrian calculus," writes Ross. Syria sees Hezbollah as a card -- something to be exploited to make Syria a factor in the region..."

Ross advises making it clear to Syria it has "something significant to lose by not cutting off Hezbollah, and that it has something meaningful to gain from changing course. But for that to happen, the international force must be "seen as credible and determined."

Syria can be persuaded to end its military support with Hezbollah and allow the Lebanese government to re-establish its authority over its national territory, as Ross suggests, in exchange for meaningful economic benefits to Damascus from the European Union.

Another carrot could come from Washington letting Damascus know that the administration will support a peace initiative between Syria and Israel that would return the Golan Heights to Damascus. That would be a big first step in distancing Syria from Iran -- and in avoiding a dangerous escalation of tension in the Middle East.

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