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CLIMATE SCIENCE
World powers lead frenetic overtime push for climate accord
By Karl MALAKUNAS, Catherine HOURS
Le Bourget, France (AFP) Dec 11, 2015


End in sight: The long battle against global warming
Paris (AFP) Dec 12, 2015 - A near three decade-long effort to rein in dangerous planetary warming is set to culminate Saturday in the first-ever universal pact to curb greenhouse gas emissions.

The road has been long.

- Climate alarm -

Alerted by scientists to signs that Earth's climate is warming, the UN establishes an international panel of scientists in 1988 to investigate. Two years later, the team reports that greenhouse gases generated by human activity are on the rise, and could intensify global warming. In a series of reports, evidence accumulates that human activity -- voracious burning of coal, oil and gas and destructive farming practices -- is warming Earth's surface and disrupting its climate system.

- First response -

A UN "Earth Summit" held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 sets up a convention with the aim of stabilising greenhouse gas emissions to prevent "dangerous" interference with the climate system. All signatories -- now 195 nations -- have met every year since then in a gathering known as the Conference of Parties to chase that elusive goal.

- A deal in Japan -

Finally, in 1997, nations reach an agreement in Kyoto, Japan, after all-night talks in a chilly conference centre, setting a 2008-2012 timeframe for industrialised nations to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions by an average 5.2 percent from 1990 levels. Developing countries, including fast-growing China, India and Brazil, are not required to take on binding targets. Four years later, the world's then-leading carbon emitter, the United States, deals the protocol a body blow by refusing to ratify it. George W. Bush says the deal is unfair as it lets developing giants off the hook. Nevertheless, the Kyoto Protocol takes effect in 2005 following its ratification by Russia -- the 55th signatory needed.

- Evidence mounts -

A year later, China overtakes the United States to become the world's biggest greenhouse gas emitter. And in 2007, the UN's climate science panel reports that evidence of global warming is now "unequivocal". It forecasts warming of 1.8-4.0 Celsius (3.2-7.2F) by 2100 and a rise in sea levels of at least 18 centimetres (7.2 inches). The report also warns that extreme weather events will probably multiply. In October 2007, the scientific team share the Nobel Peace Prize with former US vice president Al Gore, but its reputation is later tarnished by revelations that its most recent report contains several errors.

- From Copenhagen collapse, to Paris -

It is still the stuff of climate envoys' nightmares. The 2009 Copenhagen conference seeking a post-2012 agreement to replace Kyoto, is a near-catastrophe. Rather than the first climate pact to include all UN nations, the outcome is a watered-down, last-minute political "accord" among several dozen major emitters. The document sets a goal of limiting average global warming to 2C (3.6 F) but is vague on the method. Importantly, however, it enshrines a promise by rich countries to muster $100 billion (91 billion euros) in climate aid for developing countries per year by 2020. In 2014, the science panel warns that average global temperatures by the end of the 21st century could be 3.7-4.8C (6.7-8.6F) higher than in the period 1850-1900 if nothing is done to ease the upward emissions trend. In December 2015, 150 heads of state and government converge on Paris to launch a new attempt to reach a universal greenhouse gas-cutting accord.

World powers led an overtime push to seal a deal on Saturday aimed at averting catastrophic climate change, as sleep-deprived envoys battled in Paris over trillion-dollar disputes blocking a deal.

The 195-nation conference in Paris was scheduled to wrap up on Friday evening, delivering a historic agreement to brake global warming and ease its impact.

But weary negotiators lurched well past the deadline and braced for a third straight round of all-night talks after ministers wrestled with a myriad of disagreements.

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said he would submit a proposed final agreement on Saturday morning, declaring himself "sure" it would be adopted.

"Everything is in place to achieve a universal, ambitious accord," said Fabius, who is presiding over the talks that began nearly a fortnight ago with a record summit of more than 150 world leaders.

"Never again will we have a more favourable momentum than in Paris."

Many leaders billed the talks as the last chance to avert disastrous climate change: increasingly severe drought, floods and storms, as well as rising seas that would engulf islands and populated coasts.

The agreement would seek to revolutionise the world's energy system by cutting back or potentially eliminating coal and other fossil fuels, replacing them with renewables such as solar and wind.

The Paris talks have largely been free of the fierce arguments that have plagued previous UN climate conferences.

But the biggest disputes over funding the climate fight -- worth trillions of dollars over the decades to come -- remain as potential deal-breakers in a draft accord released on Thursday night.

- Success not guaranteed -

US Secretary of State John Kerry, spearheading American efforts in Paris, warned that "very difficult" issues still needed to be resolved.

Indian Environment Minister Prakash Javadekar spoke more ominously, warning success in Paris was not guaranteed and accusing rich nations of inflexibility.

Seeking to break the deadlock, US President Barack Obama and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, spoke by phone.

"They committed that their negotiating teams in Paris would continue to work closely together and with others to realise the vision of an ambitious climate agreement," the White House said.

Obama spoke earlier in the week with the leaders of India and Brazil in a bid to find common ground with other major economies with giant carbon footprints.

In Paris, the Chinese delegation's deputy chief Liu Zhenmin said he was "quite confident" a deal would be struck Saturday.

At the sprawling venue at Le Bourget on the city's northern outskirts, negotiators were feeling the effects of the marathon talks.

"We're all tired and we've become much less diplomatic," said Espen Ronneberg, a finance negotiator for the Pacific island nation of Samoa.

"Instead, we just go straight to the point. Some people don't even say hello anymore, they just nod their heads."

- Battle lines -

The quest to forge an effective worldwide pact dates back to 1992, when the UN climate arena was set up.

But the process has been dogged by labyrinthine fights, especially over the issue of burden-sharing.

Developing nations have insisted rich countries must shoulder the lion's share of responsibility for tackling climate change as they have emitted most of the greenhouse gases since the Industrial Revolution.

But the United States and other rich nations say emerging giants must also do more.

They argue that developing countries now account for most of today's emissions and thus will be largely responsible for future warming.

Rich countries promised six years ago in Copenhagen to muster $100 billion (92 billion euros) a year from 2020 to help developing nations make the energy shift and cope with the impact of global warming.

But how the pledged funds will be raised is still unclear -- and developing countries are determined to secure a commitment for increasing amounts of money after 2020, when the pact would come into force.

The latest text refers to the $100 billion as a floor, which the US and other developed nations are resisting as they fear they would effectively be signing a blank cheque.

Another remaining flashpoint is how to compensate developing nations that will be worst hit by climate change but are least to blame for it.

- Competing goals -

Ahead of the talks, most nations submitted voluntary plans to curb greenhouse gas emissions from 2020, a process widely hailed as an important platform for success.

But scientists say that, even if the cuts were fulfilled, they would still put Earth on track for warming of at least 2.7C.

Nations most vulnerable to climate change have also lobbied hard to limit warming to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.5 degrees Fahrenheit) compared with pre-Industrial Revolution levels.

However several big polluters, such as China and India as well as oil producing-giant Saudi Arabia, prefer a ceiling of 2C, which would allow them to burn fossil fuels for longer.

Negotiators remain divided over when and how often to review national plans so that they can be "scaled up" with pledges for deeper emissions cuts.

Tasked with saving humanity, climate envoys can't stay awake
Le Bourget, France (AFP) Dec 11, 2015 - They have been tasked with saving humanity but, as UN climate talks went into much-feared overtime on Friday, many exhausted envoys could barely stay awake.

Thousands of negotiators have spent nearly a fortnight at a sprawling conference venue on the outskirts of the French capital trying to forge the world's first effective universal accord to curb global warming.

With the Friday deadline come and gone and the 195 nations still deeply divided, a third consecutive night of non-stop talks was scheduled -- turning the event into a test of physical endurance as much as diplomacy.

Their sustenance: caffeine, adrenaline, hope... and more caffeine.

"Coffee always helps. This is the only time when I drink coffee," said South African Maesela Kekana, a veteran negotiator to the annual United Nations climate talks, which are notorious for running into overtime.

"You can't survive without coffee. And we help each other. We bring each other coffee."

Guyanese Minister of Governance Raphael Trotman said on Friday afternoon he had just six hours' sleep over the previous two nights, but was not feeling too weary.

"There is a bit of adrenaline and a lot of coffee," Trotman told AFP, adding that the most powerful source of energy was feeling he may be part of making history if an accord is reached on Saturday.

"Hope and expectation are what drives you. And you draw strength from just seeing the delegates from other countries (feeling the same)."

Still, Trotman admitted he had seen some other delegates "nod off" in meetings.

Other negotiators could be seen lying on couches in the public areas of the halls with shoes off, eye-masks on, grabbing a precious hour or two of rest.

- Foggy minds -

Espen Ronneberg, 49, a negotiator for the Pacific island nation of Samoa and a veteran of 17 editions of the UN talks, said fatigue was having an impact on people's ability to think clearly.

"We're all tired and we've become much less diplomatic," Ronneberg said as he looked around the airport hangar-style halls housing the national delegation offices through eyes nearly closed with fatigue.

"Instead, we just go straight to the point. Some people don't even say: 'Hello' anymore, they just nod their heads."

Naomi Klein, a famous Canadian journalist and activist with observer status at the talks, said the endless negotiations favoured the most powerful nations with the biggest delegations that could share the workload.

"We can see the negotiators are not sleeping a lot. Really, their judgement is not that great. And small countries that have small delegations sleep even less, because they have less staff," she said.

Ronneberg said Samoa tried to rotate its forces to keep them fresh.

"We've been trying to send people home," he said, referring to hotels.

"But that's not working, because it takes around one hour for them to get there. So people are just basically sleeping in the offices."

Still, Djordjije Vulikic, part of a relatively small delegation with Montenegro, insisted the fatigue was not impacting his work.

"There is this suspense, you never know what will happen at the end. So you don't feel it now," Vulikic said -- although he added he had been dreaming about what he would do when an agreement was signed.

"I will spend an entire two days sleeping."

Paris climate talks by the numbers
Paris (AFP) Dec 12, 2015 - The global climate talks that ran into overtime Friday have been a massive undertaking both diplomatically and logistically, with some 40,000 daily participants.

The summit has operated like a temporary city over the last two weeks -- providing work space, food and protection for guests, including scores of world leaders.

Here are some of the key numbers:

150

The number of heads of state and government who attended the opening ceremonies. Most of them gave speeches.

195

The number of nations which are members of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which is organising the conference. Some 10,000 delegates, 14,000 representatives of civil society and more than 3,000 journalists are registered to attend.

18

That's the tally in hectares, equivalent to 45 acres, for the area of the talks venue, located just north of Paris in Le Bourget. Most of the conference centre is open only to negotiators and others with accreditation, though there are zones for the general public and businesses.

21,000

The tonnage of greenhouse gas produced by the conference. That's equal to the annual carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of 4,420 cars over the course of a year. The pollution will be compensated ("offset") by CO2-curbing projects in the southern hemisphere, the French government says.

412,000

The number of meals to be served over the scheduled duration of the November 30-December 11 talks. But UNFCCC conferences of the parties -- COPs -- are notorious for overrunning.

32

The number of negotiating rooms at the sprawling conference centre in Le Bourget. There are also two plenary halls with a total of 3,300 seats, as well as about 20 rooms for parallel events.

2,800

The number of police and gendarmes who will be responsible for security at the conference. Some 8,000 additional law enforcement personnel were deployed at France's borders.

At least 100 UN security personnel as well as 300 private security guards are to be patrolling the conference, which opens just weeks after France suffered its worst ever terror attack.

70,000

The number of additional places that have been created on public transport in the Paris area during the conference. Special bus lines and a fleet of 200 electric cars will ferry conference delegates to and from central Paris.

170-186 million

That's the budget in euros, equal to $180-196 million, that France has set for the conference, with an additional 25 million euros in assistance -- primarily services and materials -- coming from about 50 French and foreign companies.

Organisers expect the event will bring in about 100 million euros to the greater Paris region mostly through participants' spending on lodging, food and shopping.


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Le Bourget, France (AFP) Dec 10, 2015
The French host of UN talks aimed at saving mankind from climate catastrophe said Thursday a historic accord was "extremely close", but called for unprecedented compromises during a second night of non-stop negotiations. Eleven days of bruising international diplomacy in the French capital have failed to resolve a host of decades-long arguments between rich and poor nations over how to cut g ... read more


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