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Trump's language on N.Korea carries dire risks: analysts
By Jung Ha-Won
Seoul (AFP) Aug 9, 2017


Germany urges 'restraint' from North Korea, Trump
Berlin (AFP) Aug 9, 2017 - Germany on Wednesday urged North Korea and the United States to show "restraint" after apocalyptic threats from Pyongyang and President Donald Trump in their mounting war of words.

"We are watching the increasing rhetorical escalation regarding the Korean Peninsula with the greatest concern," foreign ministry spokesman Martin Schaefer told reporters.

"That is why we call on all sides to use restraint."

Schaefer said Berlin was convinced a "military option" could not be "the answer in the quest for a nuclear weapon-free" region.

He urged the international community to "thoroughly implement" the latest round of sanctions against North Korea approved by the United Nations Security Council.

And he backed a call by US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson to resume talks with Pyongyang if it halts ballistic missile tests.

"We must all continue our diplomatic efforts -- it is the only way to ensure that the threat of the illegal North Korean nuclear weapons programme can be contained," he said.

Schaefer said Germany would be consulting with partners including the United States and China "to find the right approach to dealing with the existential danger to the region and the world posed by nuclear proliferation and threats from North Korea".

He insisted that while the call for restraint was directed at both Washington and Pyongyang, Germany saw North Korea as the clear "provocateur in this case and the source of our worries".

A spokeswoman for Chancellor Angela Merkel, widely seen as the European Union's most influential leader, underlined Berlin's concerns.

"The goal of the German government is to avoid further military escalation and to resolve peacefully the conflicts in the North Pacific region," spokeswoman Ulrike Demmer said.

Trump sharply intensified his rhetoric against North Korea on Tuesday, threatening "fire and fury" over its weapons programmes.

North Korea raised the stakes just hours later, saying it was considering missile strikes near US strategic military installations on the Pacific island of Guam.

By borrowing from North Korea's own rhetorical playbook in his latest verbal assault on Pyongyang, US President Donald Trump risks provoking the unpredictable, nuclear-armed regime into carrying out "the very attack we seek to deter", critics say.

At his New Jersey golf club, Trump warned that the North -- which last month carried out two successful tests of an intercontinental ballistic missile -- would be "met with fire and fury like the world has never seen" if it makes more threats against the US.

The language was similar to the bombastic, colourful diatribes North Korea unleashes against enemies such as South Korea, which it habitually threatens to turn into a "sea of flames" with its missiles.

But Trump's comments were made as Asia was waking up to the 72nd anniversary of the atomic bombing of Nagasaki, and analysts said they would be closely examined in Pyongyang.

The US needed to avoid "escalating rhetoric that risks provoking the very attack we seek to deter", said Laura Rosenberger, former National Security Council director for Korea and China.

The "biggest concern is if they fear US action is imminent and they act in what they believe to be preemptive way", she said on Twitter.

"Trump's statement today is the kind of threat that could accelerate and/or tip that decision."

Republican Senator John McCain also warned that Trump should tread carefully when speaking about the North, telling a US radio station: "All it's going to do is bring us closer to some kind of serious confrontation."

Pyongyang's first ICBM brought Alaska within its range, experts say, and its second extended that to much of the US mainland, including Chicago and potentially New York.

The United Nations has imposed a new set of sanctions on the North which could shave off a third of the impoverished country's total export earnings, and Washington, Seoul and Tokyo have staged joint military drills in a show of force.

"Brinkmanship is highly psychological and the potential for miscalculation is high," said Jane's analyst Karl Dewey, "particularly as so little is known about North Korea's true preferences and threat perceptions".

Pyongyang -- which says it needs nuclear weapons to deter against the threat of invasion -- responded to overflights of the Korean peninsula by Guam-based bombers with a declaration it was considering missile strikes on the US Pacific island.

But Pyongyang regularly issues blood-curdling threats, and analysts pointed out that announcing an attack in advance was not normal military strategy.

- 'Shrimp among whales' -

Any US strike on the North risks immediate retaliation -- the Pyongyang regime bases its claim to legitimacy on its opposition to the US -- and rapid escalation, with devastating consequences for the South.

Its capital Seoul, with a population of 10 million people and many more in the surrounding area, is within range of Pyongyang's vast conventional artillery forces.

"By descending to Pyongyang-style rhetoric without good options for following through, Trump risks US credibility with allies and foes," tweeted Rory Medcalf, head of the National Security College at Australian National University.

Southerners have become used to decades of hostile rhetoric from their northern neighbour, but the escalating war of words between the Trump administration -- whose messages are frequently variable -- and the North has unnerved many.

"Do you think we would be unharmed if the US will turn North Korea into a sea of fire? We are all going to die," said one of the most-liked comments on Naver -- the South's top Internet portal.

The capitalist South -- Asia's fourth-largest economy and a key Asian ally of the US -- hosts 28,500 US troops to defend it from the North after the 1950-53 Korean War that ended with an armistice instead of a peace treaty.

The North's ICBM tests have already raised fears in the South on whether the US would protect Seoul when that could put American cities in danger of potential missile retaliation by Pyongyang.

Online posters used the proverbial expression "a shrimp among whales" to describe the country buffeted by the currents of diplomacy and squeezed in a conflict between powerful neighbours.

Referring to Trump and the North's young leader Kim Jong-Un, one poster said: "If these two nutheads really start a fight, South Korea will be the biggest victim."

NUKEWARS
Tillerson's Thai stop spotlights country's North Korea ties
Bangkok (AFP) Aug 8, 2017
US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson made a pit-stop in Bangkok on Tuesday with a plea to the kingdom to curb business ties with North Korea, as Washington rounds up allies for its bid to halt Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions. Tillerson is the highest level American diplomat to visit Thailand since a 2014 coup strained ties between the longtime friends and saw China court Bangkok with massive ar ... read more

Related Links
Learn about nuclear weapons doctrine and defense at SpaceWar.com
Learn about missile defense at SpaceWar.com
All about missiles at SpaceWar.com
Learn about the Superpowers of the 21st Century at SpaceWar.com


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