 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
| . |  |
. |
 by Staff Writers Orono ME (SPX) Nov 15, 2018
A reanalysis of worldwide annual trends in precipitation demonstrates that risk to human and environmental systems has been underestimated, according to a team of University of Maine researchers. As a result, they found more than 38 percent of the global population and over 44 percent of land area have been experiencing overlooked precipitation trends. Conventional trend analysis approaches examine changes in mean annual precipitation over time, and erroneously assume that changes in high and low precipitation follow suit, according to Anne Lausier, a UMaine doctoral candidate in civil and environmental engineering and a National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellow, and Shaleen Jain, associate professor of civil and environmental engineering. The historical record of annual precipitation is summarized by the probability distribution function (PDF), where the frequency with which precipitation amounts within a certain interval occur and the probability of exceedance (non-exceedance) above (below) a given threshold can be readily estimated. In their paper, "Overlooked Trends in Observed Global Annual Precipitation Reveal Underestimated Risks," published in the journal Scientific Reports, Lausier and Jain present an innovative trend typology using quantile regression and offer a comprehensive analysis of overlooked trends worldwide. Their trend typology, rather than focusing on mean and median trends alone, extends analyses to the upper and lower tails of the PDF to assess the compounded influence of risk and variability at various thresholds. The most frequently overlooked trends include an increased risk of extreme wet conditions and increased variability found in parts of the midwestern United States, northern Canada, south-central Asia and Indonesia - regions that are home to nearly 860 million people. Conversely, the new comprehensive analysis found 840 million people exposed to a decreased risk of wet conditions, particularly in southern Africa, South America and parts of northern Asia, indicating a decrease in the incidence of high annual totals. An estimated 630 million people are impacted by an increased risk of dry conditions in parts of southern Europe, the U.S. West, southern Canada and northern Africa. More than 40 percent of global rainfed agricultural areas are exposed to overlooked trends including parts of southern and western Africa and the midwest U.S. "Human adaptation to climate change requires understanding the likelihood of experiencing detrimental impacts," Lausier and Jain write. "Mischaracterization of risks to human and environmental systems may underestimate the urgency of climate adaptation or could lead to inappropriate strategies. Our results show that significant population and land areas on the global scale correspond with changes in precipitation risk and variability, and are mischaracterized by conventional approaches." "Unreliable or erroneous estimates of risk are of special concern for more vulnerable contexts and communities," the researchers say. "Our results underscore how trends overlooked in terms of spatial extent, regionality, and severity have implications for a range of human and environmental systems. Application of our approach in future climate studies will allow for risk assessment at more appropriate adaptation targets."
Shrinking Sea of Galilee has some hoping for a miracle Ein Gev, Israel (AFP) Nov 13, 2018 It was not so long ago when swimmers at Ein Gev would lay out their towels in the grass at the edge of the Sea of Galilee. Today, they put up their parasols 100 metres (yards) further down, on a sandy beach that has appeared due to the shrinking of the iconic body of water. "Every time we come we feel an ache in our hearts," said Yael Lichi, 47, who has been visiting the famous lake with her family for 15 years. "The lake is a symbol in Israel. Whenever there is a drought, it is the first th ... read more
|
|||||||||||||
|
|
| The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2024 - Space Media Network. All websites are published in Australia and are solely subject to Australian law and governed by Fair Use principals for news reporting and research purposes. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA news reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. All articles labeled "by Staff Writers" include reports supplied to Space Media Network by industry news wires, PR agencies, corporate press officers and the like. Such articles are individually curated and edited by Space Media Network staff on the basis of the report's information value to our industry and professional readership. Advertising does not imply endorsement, agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) Statement Our advertisers use various cookies and the like to deliver the best ad banner available at one time. All network advertising suppliers have GDPR policies (Legitimate Interest) that conform with EU regulations for data collection. By using our websites you consent to cookie based advertising. If you do not agree with this then you must stop using the websites from May 25, 2018. Privacy Statement. Additional information can be found here at About Us. |
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Google
