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NUKEWARS
Kerry says 'too early' to tell if Iran deal sealed
By Simon Sturdee and Jo Biddle
Vienna (AFP) June 29, 2015


Iran FM flies home for talks as deadline nears
Vienna (AFP) June 28, 2015 - Iran's foreign minister flew home late Sunday for consultations after an intense day of talks with major powers, as a looming deadline for a historic nuclear deal looked set to slip by a few days.

A senior US official at the talks in Vienna would not say there was no chance of nailing down the accord by Tuesday, but admitted "it's fair to say the parties are planning to stay past (June 30th) to keep negotiating."

An Iranian official said there was "no desire or discussion yet" on a longer extension, comments echoed by EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini, who said "postponement is not an option".

"I would say that the political will is there. I've seen it from all sides," Mogherini told reporters at the end of a long day.

"We've tasked negotiating teams to continue work immediately tonight on the texts" for an accord, she added before leaving Vienna.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif meanwhile flew back to Tehran for talks with senior officials, although it was unclear if this was a good or a bad sign. He was expected back in the coming days.

"We've always said ministers may need to go back and forth" to consult with their capitals, the US official told reporters, adding "that's a good thing."

"We have given the necessary instructions to our negotiating teams to continue working on the text," Zarif told state television after a final meeting with US Secretary of State John Kerry before heading home.

Iran and the P5+1 group -- Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States -- are seeking to flesh out the final details of an accord that builds on a framework deal reached in Lausanne in April.

It is hoped a deal would end a standoff dating back to 2002 which has threatened to escalate into war and poisoned the Islamic republic's relations with the outside world.

According to the Lausanne framework, Iran will slash the number of its uranium enrichment centrifuges, which can make nuclear fuel but also the core of a bomb, shrink its uranium stockpile and change the design of the Arak reactor.

In return it is seeking a lifting of a complicated web of EU, US and UN sanctions which have choked its economy and limited access to world oil markets.

But finalising what will be a highly complex final deal is fraught with potential pitfalls.

This includes the exact timetable of steps by Iran, the timing and pace of this sanctions relief and UN access to Iranian military bases to investigate any suspicious behaviour.

- No deal better than a bad deal -

British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond warned the six powers were prepared to walk away.

"No deal is better than a bad deal. There are red lines that we cannot cross and some very difficult decisions and tough choices are going to have to be made by all of us," Hammond told reporters.

"In recent days it has become obvious that when it comes to the question of how... we can be sure that what we agree really is adhered to, there has been some discussion," German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said.

Any deal must stand up to intense scrutiny by hardliners in Iran and the United States, as well as Iran's regional rivals Israel, widely assumed to have nuclear weapons itself, and Saudi Arabia.

"It is still not too late to go back and insist on demands that will genuinely deny Iran the ability to arm itself with nuclear weapons and prevent it from receiving vast sums to finance its aggression," Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday.

Kerry, who is still nursing a broken leg, remained in Vienna. French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius and Hammond left late Sunday, and Steinmeier was expected to follow suit on Monday.

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US Secretary of State John Kerry warned Monday it was too soon to tell if a nuclear deal with Iran is possible as he awaited the return of Iran's foreign minister from consultations in Tehran.

"We're just working and it's too early to make any judgements," Kerry told reporters in Vienna as he met with Yukiya Amano, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

The UN watchdog will have a crucial role in verifying Iran's claims that its nuclear programme is purely peaceful and also to make sure it does not cheat in the future.

More contentiously, the IAEA wants to investigate claims that before 2003, and possibly since, Iran carried out nuclear weapons development work -- something denied by Iran -- and to be able to probe any such claims in the future.

White House spokesman Josh Earnest acknowledged that Tuesday's deadline for a deal would be missed, saying "there are still some important unresolved issues."

The sticking points could not be "resolved in the next 36 hours. It will require additional time, and that's additional time that our negotiators will take in Vienna in pursuit of reaching an agreement that would prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon," he told reporters in Washington.

Even though Earnest spoke of imposing "the most intrusive set of inspections" ever agreed on a nuclear programme, another senior US administration official stressed global powers were not asking for access to every Iranian military site.

"The United States of America wouldn't allow anybody to get into every military site, so that's not appropriate," the official told reporters.

"There are conventional purposes, and there are secrets that any country has that they are not willing to share."

But the official said global powers had proposed a way forward as part of parameters agreed in Lausanne on April 2 "that we believe will ensure that the IAEA has the access it needs."

In a possible sign of progress, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said he would arrive in Vienna on Tuesday, coinciding with the expected return of his Iranian opposite number Mohammad Javad Zarif, who flew home Sunday night for consultations.

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, speaking in New York, said he would be back in the Austrian capital this week. It was unclear when his British, German or Chinese counterparts might follow suit.

- Sticking to the parameters -

In April, Iran and the P5+1 group -- the United States, China, Russia, Britain, France and Germany -- agreed on the main outlines of a deal hoping to end a 13-year standoff over Iran's nuclear ambitions.

Under the framework, Iran will dramatically scale down its atomic activities in order to make any drive to make a weapon -- an ambition it denies having -- all but impossible.

This includes slashing the number of centrifuges enriching uranium, which can be used for nuclear fuel but also in a bomb, reducing its uranium stockpile and modifying a planned reactor at Arak.

In return, the powers have said they will progressively ease sanctions that have suffocated Iran's economy, while retaining the option to reimpose them if Iran violates the agreement.

The US official said now teams were hard at work trying to thrash out the exact details of how to put the April framework into operation.

But turning the 505-word joint statement agreed in April in Lausanne, Switzerland into a fully-fledged, highly technical document of several dozen pages, accompanied by several annexes, has proved challenging.

"It sounds easy, but it's difficult," German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said Sunday.

The US official dismissed as "absurd" allegations that Kerry and his team were going to cave on some of the hardest issues, but warned "there are real and tough issues that remain which have to be resolved."

"It is certainly possible to get a deal here. We do see a path forward to get a comprehensive agreement that meets our bottom lines, and this path forward has to be based on the Lausanne parameters," the official said.


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NUKEWARS
White House, foes turn up heat ahead of Iran deadline
Washington (AFP) June 25, 2015
Down-to-the-wire talks in Vienna this week will decide whether the United States can reach a landmark nuclear deal with Iran, but a fierce lobbying battle in Washington may decide if it survives. For the last two years, those for and against an agreement to curb Iran's nuclear program have traded newspaper opinion pieces, rolled out dueling advocacy campaigns and lobbied "influencers" on the ... read more


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