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In full offensive on China, Trump gambles on end-game
By Francesco FONTEMAGGI, with Eva Xiao in Beijing
Washington (AFP) Oct 13, 2018

US-China trade row not a threat to world economy: Mnuchin
Nusa Dua, Indonesia (AFP) Oct 13, 2018 - US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin pushed back Saturday against warnings that Washington's trade fight with China imperils the world economy, saying that pushing Beijing to open up will be good for all.

The IMF has warned this week at annual meetings in Bali that the escalating US-China trade confrontation would hobble global economic growth, as the fund lowered its forecasts for this year and next.

But Mnuchin told reporters on the Indonesian resort island that President Donald Trump's drive to punish China with tariffs to encourage it to adopt fairer trade practices would have the opposite affect.

"Our objective with China is very clear: it's to have a more balanced trading relationship," Mnuchin said.

"I think that if we are successful, this is very good for US companies, US workers, Europeans, Japan, all of our other allies, and good for China."

Mnuchin said, however that the IMF's warnings were "all the more reason for China to be incented to address these issues with us".

The IMF Tuesday cut its outlook for global GDP growth by 0.2 percentage points to 3.7 percent for 2018 and 2019, saying that "everyone is going to suffer" from a clash between the world's two biggest economies.

Tensions have soared in recent months with Donald Trump's administration rolling out billions of dollars in tariffs against China in a bid to tackle its trade deficit and rein in what Washington views as unacceptable trade practices by the Asian giant.

"Our objective is to increase exports and have a more balanced, fair relationship where our companies can do business there on terms that are similar to how they can do business (in the US)," Mnuchin said.

"(A) free fair and reciprocal relationship."

Attention has begun to turn toward hopes that Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could meet on the sidelines of the G-20 summit next month in Argentina and bury the hatchet with some sort of agreement.

"I don't think any decision has been made in regards to a meeting," Mnuchin said.

"To the extent that we can make progress toward a meeting, I would encourage that and that's something we are having discussions about.

"But for the moment, there's no preconditions. The president will decide on that."

Donald Trump has escalated his feud with China into a full-press offensive that has drawn comparisons to the Cold War. Now the question on both sides of the Pacific is, how will it end?

In recent weeks, Trump has slapped $250 billion worth of tariffs, boosted military support for rival Taiwan, accused China of interfering in US elections, stepped up denunciations of Beijing's human rights record and curtailed its access to US nuclear technology.

The real estate mogul, who early in his tenure had described Chinese President Xi Jinping as a friend, was generally presumed to be most interested in trade as he has repeatedly vowed to ramp up US factory production by fighting back the flow of cheaper manufactured imports.

But his administration has expanded its pressure campaign to virtually all fronts, a strategy unprecedented since the time the United States and China established diplomatic relations four decades ago.

"It is a full-frontal assault by the US on China," said Elizabeth Economy, director for Asia studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

"There is a general sense in Washington that China is simply too big now, it's simply too large as a country and as an economy, to allow it to continue to violate all sorts of expected international trade and investment norms," she said.

Economy said that the United States was also struck at how Xi has "presented a very different China to the world" with a "much more ambitious and expansive foreign policy."

"The US and other countries say, 'Okay, this is the China we have to deal with, not what we anticipated ten years ago.'"

- China ready for 'marathon' -

Hua Po, a political commentator in Beijing, agreed that trade was only the "superficial" source of friction.

He believed that the underlying concern of the United States was the Made in China 2025 plan, under which Beijing has set a goal of rapidly ensuring that a majority of its industry is sourced domestically.

The United States accuses China of rampantly stealing technology and seeking an unfair trade advantage by forcing foreign businesses to work with local partners.

"Even if the trade issue is resolved, other problems between China and the United States will continue to exist," Hua said.

Hua said that Trump seemed to want "to fight a new cold war." But Hua doubted that the United States would enjoy the support of its allies, especially in Europe, which do not see China as the same type of threat as the former Soviet Union.

And amid turbulence on Wall Street, China is expecting the US economy to see growing strains as negative effects emerge from Trump's signature domestic policy of tax cuts, Hua said.

"China does believe that this dispute will last for some time. The United States wants to run a 100-meter race with China, but China wants a marathon with the United States," he said.

- Diplomacy through confrontation -

Tensions soared between the world's two largest economies last month at the annual UN General Assembly session.

A closed-door meeting of foreign ministers from the five permanent members of the Security Council turned "icy" as US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo lashed out aggressively against China, whose foreign minister, Wang Yi, responded with similar intensity, according to a witness.

Vice President Mike Pence a week later delivered a speech in which he took China to task and made the headline-grabbing claim, a month ahead of congressional elections, that Beijing was intervening in US politics, citing the Asian power's purchase of newspaper advertisements and its imposition of counter tariffs in politically crucial states.

The two countries have still kept in contact on resolving the nuclear crisis with North Korea, a top priority for both powers, with Pompeo visiting Beijing after a stop in Pyongyang.

Ryan Hass, the director for China policy on the White House's National Security Council under Obama, said that Trump had taken a new course by emphasizing public pressure over diplomacy with China.

He said that Trump had gambled "on the assumption that Beijing needs a stable relationship with Washington" and that Beijing is ready to moderate its policies both at home and abroad.

"Beijing believes Washington is organizing itself to contest China's rise. As such, Beijing sees little incentive to accommodate Trump's demands on trade or other issues, because doing so would not resolve the underlying source of intensifying rivalry -- Washington's efforts to hold back China's rise," said Hass, now a fellow at the Brookings Institution.

"Given these dynamics, it is unlikely that either side will moderate its approach in the foreseeable future," he said.


Related Links
Learn about the Superpowers of the 21st Century at SpaceWar.com
Learn about nuclear weapons doctrine and defense at SpaceWar.com


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Japan PM Abe to make rare China visit this month
Beijing (AFP) Oct 12, 2018
Shinzo Abe will pay the first visit to China by a Japanese prime minister since 2011 later this month, Beijing announced Friday, in the latest sign of warming ties between the rivals. Abe will visit from October 25 to 27 and mark the 40th anniversary of the Treaty of Peace and Friendship between the two nations, said Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang. The visit will "elevate our bilateral ties and put bilateral cooperation back on the right track," Lu said at a regular press briefing. ... read more

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