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CLIMATE SCIENCE
G7 says 'deep cuts' in greenhouse gases needed this century
By Frank ZELLER
Elmau Castle, Germany (AFP) June 8, 2015


UN climate talks stall despite G7 push on carbon
Bonn (AFP) June 8, 2015 - Calls by the Group of Seven (G7) Monday to slash world carbon emissions did little to boost UN climate talks in Bonn, where frustration mounted over the snail-like progress.

Groups of countries pleaded for greater efforts to streamline a draft text for a climate pact due to be adopted at a conference in Paris in just over six months.

"We are very concerned about the pace of negotiations," said Amjad Abdulla of the Maldives, speaking for the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) which are deeply exposed to climate change.

"We have not made the big jump forward that we need," he told a stock-taking session.

"There is clearly an urgent need to make more substantive progress and to proceed at a faster pace than we did last week," said South Africa's Nozipho Mxakato-Diseko on behalf of the so-called G77 and China group of developing nations.

Due to end on Friday, the 11-day Bonn talks are tasked with shaping a draft text for the November 30-December 11 UN conference in Paris, which must yield a global agreement.

The final document is supposed to enshrine the will of 195 countries to roll back climate change, spell out commitments to tackle greenhouse gases and provide aid to vulnerable economies from 2020.

But after a week of wrangling, just about five percent had been shaved off a sprawling near-90-page draft, mostly by removing glaring duplications, said delegates.

And there has been little serious talk about some of the many thorny issues that remain.

Negotiators agreed "the pace and the mode of negotiations need to pick up, that they need to engage with each other on the political issues, not just the mechanical shifting around of text," said veteran analyst Alden Meyer of the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS).

Elsewhere in Germany, leaders of the G7 industrialised democracies urged global emissions cuts at "the upper end" of a 40-70 percent range by mid-century over 2010 levels.

This is the range proposed by the UN's top climate science panel for a good chance of meeting the goal of limiting global warming to two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) over pre-Industrial Revolution levels.

Scientists warn that on current trends, Earth is on track for double that, setting the stage for worsening drought, flood, rising seas and disease.

- 'Difficult' for Paris -

In other news, a study on China said Monday emissions by the world's largest carbon polluter were likely to peak five years earlier than its own stated target of 2030.

The researchers, from the London School of Economics (LSE), said their figures boosted the world's chances of reaching the 2C objective.

They cautioned, though, that the pathway also depended on China swiftly cutting its emissions beyond the peak.

But in Bonn, negotiators waded through pages and pages of text projected on big screens, trying to trim superfluous words and paragraphs.

In a bid to speed things up, delegates asked the joint co-chairmen of the talks Monday to take charge of developing a streamlined text proposal, in consultation with specially designated "facilitators".

"We strongly believe that unless we have more condensed text in the near term, it will be very difficult to achieve success for Paris," Abdulla stressed.

Nations remain deeply divided on several underlying issues, key among them such basics as apportioning responsibility between rich and poor for emissions cuts.

And rich countries are under pressure to show how they intend meeting a pledge made in 2009 to bolster climate finance to $100 billion per year by 2020.

But getting to the substance is tricky without first clarifying the choices.

G7 leaders called at a summit Monday for a "decarbonisation of the global economy" and said deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are needed over the course of this century.

Ahead of a UN climate summit in Paris late this year, the Group of Seven major industrialised nations urged global emissions cuts at "the upper end of" the 40-70 percent range by mid-century compared to 2010 levels.

The G7 also reaffirmed the goal of limiting global warming in the 21st century to two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) from pre-industrial levels, first agreed at a 2009 UN climate summit in Copenhagen.

Scientists warn that on current trends, Earth is on track for double that target.

The goal in cutting heat-trapping greenhouse gases is to slow global warming which is blamed for melting the planet's ice caps and glaciers, raising sea levels and causing more violent storms, floods and droughts.

"Urgent and concrete action is needed to address climate change," the G7 leaders said in a final statement after a two-day summit in Germany.

"We emphasise that deep cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions are required with a decarbonisation of the global economy over the course of this century."

US President Barack Obama said "we continued to make progress toward a strong climate agreement in Paris".

And French President Francois Hollande welcomed the "ambitious and realistic commitments", adding: "We do not have the right to fail".

- 'Fossil fuel days numbered' -

The Group of Seven leading industrialised countries -- Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States -- make up about 10 percent of the world population but one quarter of global emissions.

Not at the G7 summit were China, the world's number one polluter, and other big emerging economies such as India, Russia and Brazil.

The G7 nations also said they were committed to jointly mobilise financing from public and private sources for a previously agreed $100-billion fund to finance climate efforts in poor countries from 2020.

They also committed "to doing our part to achieve a low-carbon global economy in the long-term including developing and deploying innovative technologies striving for a transformation of the energy sectors by 2050".

G7 countries agreed to support a set of initiatives to expand renewable energy in developing countries, particularly in Africa.

Environmental groups broadly welcomed the fact that the G7 meeting at Germany's Elmau Castle resort had acknowledge that "the days of fossil fuels and carbon pollution are numbered", but criticised members for being vague on the details.

"Elmau delivered," said Greenpeace climate expert Martin Kaiser, adding that at the summit "the vision of a 100 percent renewable energy future is starting to take shape while spelling out the end of coal".

He added however that "some G7 leaders have left the door open for high risk technologies, like nuclear energy and carbon capture and storage".

Oxfam's Jorn Kalinski said that "G7 leaders have indicated that fossil fuels are on their way out" but added that "they must now live up to their own rhetoric and kick their dirty coal habit".

"They must also reassure developing countries that they will keep their promise to deliver $100 billion by 2020 for climate action in developing countries, and provide the additional predictable funding needed in the longer term."

WWF said the G7 had sent "important political signals but few concrete commitments from the countries themselves ... The course is right, but more speed, ambition and specific actions are needed".

Its climate expert Samantha Smith said that on the $100-billion fund so far "we have seen just over $10 billion committed. We would have liked the G7 to have provided certainty on finance".

She stressed that although G7 leaders "left out the details... it is clear after this meeting that the days of fossil fuels and carbon pollution are numbered".


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CLIMATE SCIENCE
Chinese emissions may peak by 2025, says analysis
Bonn (AFP) June 7, 2015
In a boost for hopes to curb climate change, China's greenhouse gas emissions will probably peak in 2025, five years earlier than its stated target, a study said Monday. On current trends, the world's biggest carbon emitter will discharge 12.5-14 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) in 2025, after which emissions will decline, it said. The work was carried out by two rese ... read more


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