. 24/7 Space News .
EARTH OBSERVATION
Stanford researchers use artificial intelligence to unlock extreme weather mysteries
by Staff Writers
Stanford CA (SPX) Aug 11, 2021

Adapted from Davenport and Diffenbaugh, Geophysical Research Letters 2021

From lake-draining drought in California to bridge-breaking floods in China, extreme weather is wreaking havoc. Preparing for weather extremes in a changing climate remains a challenge, however, because their causes are complex and their response to global warming is often not well understood.

Now, Stanford researchers have developed a machine learning tool to identify conditions for extreme precipitation events in the Midwest, which account for over half of all major U.S. flood disasters. Published in Geophysical Research Letters, their approach is one of the first examples using AI to analyze causes of long-term changes in extreme events and could help make projections of such events more accurate.

"We know that flooding has been getting worse," said study lead author Frances Davenport, a PhD student in Earth system science in Stanford's School of Earth, Energy and Environmental Sciences (Stanford Earth). "Our goal was to understand why extreme precipitation is increasing, which in turn could lead to better predictions about future flooding."

Among other impacts, global warming is expected to drive heavier rain and snowfall by creating a warmer atmosphere that can hold more moisture. Scientists hypothesize that climate change may affect precipitation in other ways, too, such as changing when and where storms occur. Revealing these impacts has remained difficult, however, in part because global climate models do not necessarily have the spatial resolution to model these regional extreme events.

"This new approach to leveraging machine learning techniques is opening new avenues in our understanding of the underlying causes of changing extremes," said study co-author Noah Diffenbaugh, the Kara J Foundation Professor in the School of Earth, Energy and Environmental Sciences. "That could enable communities and decision makers to better prepare for high-impact events, such as those that are so extreme that they fall outside of our historical experience."

Davenport and Diffenbaugh focused on the upper Mississippi watershed and the eastern part of the Missouri watershed. The highly flood-prone region, which spans parts of nine states, has seen extreme precipitation days and major floods become more frequent in recent decades.

The researchers started by using publicly available climate data to calculate the number of extreme precipitation days in the region from 1981 to 2019. Then they trained a machine learning algorithm designed for analyzing grid data, such as images, to identify large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme precipitation (above the 95th percentile).

"The algorithm we use correctly identifies over 90 percent of the extreme precipitation days, which is higher than the performance of traditional statistical methods that we tested," Davenport said.

The trained machine learning algorithm revealed that multiple factors are responsible for the recent increase in Midwest extreme precipitation. During the 21st century, the atmospheric pressure patterns that lead to extreme Midwest precipitation have become more frequent, increasing at a rate of about one additional day per year, although the researchers note that the changes are much weaker going back further in time to the 1980s.

However, the researchers found that when these atmospheric pressure patterns do occur, the amount of precipitation that results has clearly increased. As a result, days with these conditions are more likely to have extreme precipitation now than they did in the past. Davenport and Diffenbaugh also found that increases in the precipitation intensity on these days were associated with higher atmospheric moisture flows from the Gulf of Mexico into the Midwest, bringing the water necessary for heavy rainfall in the region.

The researchers hope to extend their approach to look at how these different factors will affect extreme precipitation in the future. They also envision redeploying the tool to focus on other regions and types of extreme events, and to analyze distinct extreme precipitation causes, such as weather fronts or tropical cyclones. These applications will help further parse climate change's connections to extreme weather.

"While we focused on the Midwest initially, our approach can be applied to other regions and used to understand changes in extreme events more broadly," said Davenport. "This will help society better prepare for the impacts of climate change."

Research Report: "Using Machine Learning to Analyze Physical Causes of Climate Change: A Case Study of U.S. Midwest Extreme Precipitation"


Related Links
Stanford University
Earth Observation News - Suppiliers, Technology and Application


Thanks for being there;
We need your help. The SpaceDaily news network continues to grow but revenues have never been harder to maintain.

With the rise of Ad Blockers, and Facebook - our traditional revenue sources via quality network advertising continues to decline. And unlike so many other news sites, we don't have a paywall - with those annoying usernames and passwords.

Our news coverage takes time and effort to publish 365 days a year.

If you find our news sites informative and useful then please consider becoming a regular supporter or for now make a one off contribution.
SpaceDaily Monthly Supporter
$5+ Billed Monthly


paypal only
SpaceDaily Contributor
$5 Billed Once


credit card or paypal


EARTH OBSERVATION
Ball Aerospace completes preliminary design review of NOAA's Space Weather Satellite
Boulder CO (SPX) Jul 30, 2021
Ball Aerospace successfully completed the preliminary design review (PDR) for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) Space Weather Follow On-Lagrange 1 (SWFO-L1) spacecraft. With PDR complete, the spacecraft now moves into the critical design phase. Ball was awarded the contract to design and build the SWFO-L1 spacecraft on June 25, 2020 by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center on behalf of NOAA. SWFO-L1 is an operational mission that will collect solar wind data and coronal i ... read more

Comment using your Disqus, Facebook, Google or Twitter login.



Share this article via these popular social media networks
del.icio.usdel.icio.us DiggDigg RedditReddit GoogleGoogle

EARTH OBSERVATION
Boeing delays key uncrewed test flight to ISS

Nauka Module incident caused by software failure

Russia to stop using ISS by 2028, create own National Space Station

ISSRDC to highlight opportunities within biomanufacturing in space

EARTH OBSERVATION
Finding the cause of a fatal problem in rocket engine combustors

Rocket tanks of carbon fibre reinforced plastic proven possible

US watchdog upholds SpaceX's Moon lander contract

NASA performs field test of 3D imaging system for descent and landing

EARTH OBSERVATION
Aviation Week awards NASA's Ingenuity Mars Helicopter with laureate

North-By-Northwest for Ingenuity's 11th Flight

Science in motion for ExoMars twin rover

Earthly rocks point way to water hidden on Mars

EARTH OBSERVATION
Shanxi company helps astronauts keep fit in space

China's space propaganda blitz endures at slick new planetarium

How Chinese astronauts stay healthy in space

China's five-star red flag flies proudly on red planet

EARTH OBSERVATION
Next batch of OneWeb satellites set to launch August 20

Iridium granted trio of regulatory approvals in Japan

Inmarsat unveils the communications network of the future

Space company in search for professionals

EARTH OBSERVATION
Experiment bound for Space Station turns down the heat

DARPA selects research teams to enable quantum shift in spectrum sensing

End tax breaks for gaming firms, says Chinese state media

The truth about space traffic management

EARTH OBSERVATION
Astronomers show how planets form in binary systems without getting crushed

Galileo Project to search for ET artifacts in galactic space

From the sun to the stars: A journey of exoplanet discovery begins

ALMA images moon-forming disk around alien world

EARTH OBSERVATION
Hubble finds first evidence of water vapor on Ganymede

NASA Awards Launch Services Contract for the Europa Clipper Mission

Juno tunes into Jovian radio triggered by Jupiter's volcanic moon Io

Ride with Juno as it flies past Jupiter and Ganymede









The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2024 - Space Media Network. All websites are published in Australia and are solely subject to Australian law and governed by Fair Use principals for news reporting and research purposes. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA news reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. All articles labeled "by Staff Writers" include reports supplied to Space Media Network by industry news wires, PR agencies, corporate press officers and the like. Such articles are individually curated and edited by Space Media Network staff on the basis of the report's information value to our industry and professional readership. Advertising does not imply endorsement, agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) Statement Our advertisers use various cookies and the like to deliver the best ad banner available at one time. All network advertising suppliers have GDPR policies (Legitimate Interest) that conform with EU regulations for data collection. By using our websites you consent to cookie based advertising. If you do not agree with this then you must stop using the websites from May 25, 2018. Privacy Statement. Additional information can be found here at About Us.