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CLIMATE SCIENCE
Release of CO2 fastest in 66 million years: study
By Marlowe HOOD
Paris (AFP) March 21, 2016


Climate changing at 'unprecedented' rate: UN
Geneva (AFP) March 21, 2016 - January and February 2016 smashed temperature records, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Monday as it warned climate change was advancing at an "unprecedented" rate.

Temperatures in the first two months of 2016 soared to new highs, following a year that broke "all previous records by a wide margin," the UN's weather agency said.

The WMO pointed to record 2015 land and sea surface temperatures, unabated sea-level rise, shrinking sea ice and extreme weather events around the world.

"The alarming rate of change we are now witnessing in our climate as a result of greenhouse gas emissions is unprecedented in modern records," the WMO's new chief, Petteri Taalas, said in a statement.

Dave Carlson, head of the WMO-co-sponsored World Climate Research Programme, said the rising temperatures this year were especially alarming, describing them as "a slap in the face."

- 'Relentless trend upwards' -

"There is a relentless trend upwards," he told reporters in Geneva, saying the "startlingly high temperatures so far in 2016 have sent shockwaves around the climate science community."

WMO confirmed findings by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) last week.

The US agency determined that last month was the warmest February since modern records began, with an average temperature that was 1.21 degrees Celsius (2.18 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 20th-century average.

The hike in temperatures during the first two months of the year was especially felt in the far north, with the extent of sea ice in the Arctic at a satellite-record low in February, WMO said.

That is "quite a dramatic indication of climate change. We have never seen such an event before," Taalas told reporters in Geneva.

Carbon-dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere also crossed the threshold of 400 parts per million (ppm) during the first two months of the year, WMO said.

In 2014, CO2 levels had already risen to 397.7 ppm, which was 143 percent of levels prior to 1750, considered the start of the industrial era.

Monday's report came against a backdrop of the Paris climate talks in December. UN members enshrined a goal of limiting global warming to "well below" 2 C above pre-industrial levels, with a more ambitious target of 1.5 C if possible.

But Taalas warned that the planet is already halfway to the 2 C milestone, with temperatures in recent months already nearly at 1.5 C.

"If you look at the number for the last couple of months, it is at 1.4 C," he said.

"Our planet is sending a powerful message to world leaders to sign and implement the Paris Agreement ... now before we pass the point of no return," he said.

"National climate change plans adopted so far may not be enough to avoid a temperature rise of 3 C," he said.

He stressed though that "we can avert the worst-case scenarios with urgent and far-reaching measures to cut carbon dioxide emissions."

The el-Nino climate phenomenon blamed in part for the soaring temperatures in 2015 and so far this year is meanwhile beginning to fade, Taalas said.

But Carlson stressed to reporters that the phenomenon "puts a lot of heat into the atmosphere ... that heat affects the global climate for a year or more" after it has died away.

"Typically a year following an el-Nino is a very warm year," he said.

But he said it would not be clear until October whether 2016 "will be warmer than 2015, whether it will be the record of all time."

Humans are disgorging heat-trapping carbon into the atmosphere 10 times faster than during any period of natural global warming in the last 66 million years, according to a study released Monday.

That rate far exceeds even a cataclysmic climate event 55.8 million years ago, and pushes humanity into unchartered and dangerous territory, researchers said.

During the so-called the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), Earth's surface temperatures climbed by more than five degrees Celsius (nine degrees Fahrenheit) within a few thousand years.

With only 1C (1.8F) of warming so far, current climate change over the last two centuries -- mostly the last 50 years -- has already begun to unleash super-charged hurricanes, storm surges boosted by rising seas and devastating drought.

On present trajectories, greenhouse gas emissions will heat up Earth three to four degrees Celsius by 2100.

The PETM has been much scrutinised as a possible analog, or stand-in, for the potential impacts of carbon pollution.

"Of all the changes we have seen in 66 million years, this event is the one that most looks like anthropogenic, or man-made, warming," said Andy Ridgwell, a paleo-climatologist at the University of Bristol in England and a co-autor of the study.

The parallels are striking: massive carbon emissions, followed by rapid global warming and major loss of species.

Fifty-six million years ago, those extinctions took place mainly in the ocean. Today the so-called "sixth great extinction" is underway both in the sea and on land.

But up to now scientists couldn't figure out how quickly carbon -- whether in the form of CO2 or, more likely, methane from the ocean floor -- had been released.

"The biggest problem has been coming up with a firm timing for the PETM onset event," Ridgwell told AFP.

"How quickly the emissions occurred is absolutely critical."

Some studies had suggested the massive outpouring of carbon -- 2,000 to 4,500 billion tonnes -- took place in as little as a few hundred years.

This would be marginally reassuring in so far as humanity has added about 400 billion tonnes so far, and may be able to limit the total to two or three times that, depending on how quickly the world economy can kick its carbon habit.

In December, 195 nations set a target of capping warming "well below 2C," even if many scientists say we are likely to punch through this barrier.

But if the discharge of carbon 56 million years ago took place over a much longer period, that would suggest lower rates of emissions could still have dramatic consequences.

- In unchartered territory -

In a clever bit of chemical detective work, Ridgwell, James Zachos of the University of California at Santa Cruz, and lead author Richard Zeebe from the University of Hawaii figured out how to nail down the duration of the carbon release without having to determine when exactly when it happened.

Their findings were published in Nature Climate Change.

Knowing there is a lag between greenhouse gas emissions and temperature increase, they compared oxygen and carbon tracers, called isotopes, from ocean sediment off the coast of New Jersey.

Oxygen isotopes track temperature, while carbon isotopes provide a record of C02 or methane.

"If the carbon was released rapidly we would find in the sediment core a lag with warming," Zeebe told AFP.

"If carbon is released slowly, the climate adjusts more or less in sync."

There was no lag at all. A quick calculation showed that the carbon could not have been emitted in less then 4,000 years, or about one billion tonnes per year.

By comparison, human activity -- industry, energy production, deforestation, agriculture -- is pumping out about 10 billion tonnes of carbon annually, 10 times as much.

"Aside from the huge impact that killed the dinosaurs, what we are seeing now is the fastest rate of climate change in 66 million years," said Ridgwell.

This is bad news for species loss, he continued.

"Ecosystem impacts tend to show up more with the rate, rather than the size, of the change in temperature," he said.

"It's all about the rate."

What is happening on Earth today, he noted, is closer in speed to the end of the Cretaceous -- when a comet cataclysm wiped out the dinosaurs -- than it is to events such as the PETM.

"We are in uncharted territory in the rate carbon is being released into the atmosphere and oceans," commented Candace Major, program director of the Division of Ocean Sciences at the US National Science Foundation, which funded the research.


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