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Outside View: Upgrading Gabala
Moscow (UPI) Sep 12, 2007 On Sept. 15, Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, will host consultations involving Russian, U.S. and Azerbaijani diplomats and military experts, who will discuss the possible use of Russia's Daryal early-warning radar in Gabala, Azerbaijan, for monitoring the Iranian missile program. Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President George W. Bush, who met at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Sydney, Australia, have touched upon this issue, among other things. Washington, which believes that ballistic missiles reportedly being developed by Iran can hit both Europe and the United States, plans to deploy an early-warning radar in the Czech Republic and 10 missile interceptors near Warsaw, Poland. However, Moscow firmly opposes these plans. The Kremlin and its generals think that, instead of countering Iranian ballistic missiles, U.S. missile-defense elements, due to be deployed in Europe, aim to reduce the counter-force potential of Russian strategic nuclear forces. Consequently, to protect its national interests Russia will have to take adequate measures -- up to withdrawal from the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty and deployment of Iskander-M theater-level missiles on the border with Poland. Top officials have been debating the designation of Washington's European missile-defense system for several months now. This July, Putin and Bush negotiated at the Bush family estate in Kennebunkport, Maine. In a bid to remove U.S. concerns about Tehran's missile program, the Russian leader proposed that Washington use the Russian Daryal-type radar located in Gabala, Azerbaijan, which keeps an eye on Iran and a 6,000-km arc in south Eurasia. Moscow, which wants the United States to mothball construction of its missile-interceptor base in Poland, believes that if it becomes obvious that Iran has tested missiles capable of hitting Europe, the missile-defense program could easily be resumed. According to the Kremlin, Washington's attitude toward using the Gabala radar would show whether the United States wants to defend itself and Europe against Iran or whether it plans to contain Russia instead. U.S. politicians and generals are divided on the Russian proposal. On the one hand, they see no reason why they should not use the Gabala radar. Although its specifications and combat potential do not meet U.S. requirements, the Gabala radar can provide additional intelligence data on the Iranian military program. On the other hand, Washington wants to go ahead with its European missile-defense program. Prior to deciding on the system's configuration, Pentagon experts are ready to inspect the Gabala radar and assess its modernization potential. However, the U.S. military cannot use the radar independently from Russia because its configuration, signal emitters, receiving antennas, computers, cooling, water-supply and effluent-purification systems feature Russian-made components and cannot be replaced. It would be simpler to build another radar in Gabala. However, Russian and U.S. military personnel could jointly operate the revamped Gabala radar and relay all data to their command centers. Azerbaijan would also profit from using this radar on a par with Moscow and Washington as it would lead to substantial political and economic benefits. The Kremlin would also gain political and strategic advantages, particularly if the United States scraps its European missile-defense system. Russia could do without the Gabala facility, after it completes the Voronezh-M radar in Armavir in the North Caucasus in 2012. Moscow, which annually pays $5 million to Baku for the use of the Gabala radar, will no longer depend on the changeable Azerbaijani politicians. The Kremlin hopes that the use of the modernized Gabala and later Voronezh-M radars will help create a joint early-warning data-exchange network and will open up new opportunities for Russian-U.S. cooperation. The security of Russia, the United States and other countries will depend on the subsequent development of the European missile-defense system after consultations in Baku. Presidential elections in Russia and the United States could overshadow this issue; moreover, the Democrat-dominated Congress has already cut National Missile Defense appropriations, which indicates that Washington is likely to modify its policy in this sphere after 2008. Just like Ronald Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative, the European missile-defense system could also fade away quietly. (Nikita Petrov is a military commentator. This article is reprinted by permission of RIA Novosti. The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.)
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Putin 'optimistic' accord possible with US on missile defence
Moscow (AFP) Sept 10, 2007Russia and the United States still have a chance to reach agreement on the vexed question of Washington's missile defence plans, President Vladimir Putin said on Monday. |
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