It's not to be. Universe too short for Shakespeare typing monkeys
by Simon Mansfield
Sydney, Australia (SPX) Oct 31, 2024

A popular thought experiment suggests that a monkey randomly typing on a keyboard indefinitely would eventually produce the complete works of Shakespeare by chance. This concept, known as the Infinite Monkey Theorem, illustrates principles of randomness and probability, and has appeared in pop culture from 'The Simpsons' to 'Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy'.

However, a recent study conducted by Associate Professor Stephen Woodcock and Jay Falletta at the University of Technology Sydney (UTS) highlights the limits of this theorem when constrained by the finite lifespan of our universe. According to the researchers, the amount of time required for a random monkey to produce Shakespeare's works would far exceed the universe's expected lifespan, making the theorem practically unrealistic.

"The Infinite Monkey Theorem assumes infinite time or infinite monkeys," said Associate Professor Woodcock. "Our study aimed to calculate the probability of a specific sequence of letters being typed by a finite number of monkeys within the universe's lifespan."

Their study, published in 'Franklin Open', is titled 'A numerical evaluation of the Finite Monkeys Theorem' and takes a mathematically grounded but light-hearted approach to evaluating this classic theorem. The researchers based their calculations on a 30-key keyboard containing all English letters plus punctuation and assumed a productive typing rate of one keystroke per second.

In addition to assessing a lone monkey, they incorporated the current global chimpanzee population of around 200,000, calculating the odds of these chimps randomly typing Shakespeare's complete works. The results? A single chimpanzee would have a roughly 5% chance of typing the word "bananas" in its lifetime. However, even with the full global chimpanzee workforce, completing all 884,647 words in Shakespeare's works before the universe's estimated end (about 10^100 years from now) remains implausible.

"It's clear that monkey labor will never realistically produce complex literature," the authors noted. "Our findings place this theorem among probability puzzles like the St. Petersburg paradox and Zeno's paradox, where theoretical infinity contrasts with real-world constraints."

In today's era of generative AI, this study invites readers to reflect on deeper philosophical questions about creativity, meaning, and consciousness and how these arise within finite limits.

Research Report:A numerical evaluation of the Finite Monkeys Theorem

Related Links
University of Technology Sydney
Understanding Time and Space