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Islamic State threat raises stakes for US nuclear summit
By Andrew BEATTY
Washington (AFP) March 30, 2016


Washington nuclear summit: What's at stake
Washington (AFP) March 30, 2016 - President Barack Obama hosts an international summit in Washington Thursday and Friday aimed at ensuring that nuclear material in the world's roughly 1,000 atomic facilities is secured.

Here is a breakdown of what's at stake:

- Large stockpiles -

Obama convened the first Nuclear Security Summit in 2010, followed by similar gatherings in Seoul in 2012 and The Hague in 2014.

The meetings focus on preventing criminals from accessing stockpiles of radioactive materials, reducing highly enriched uranium and separated plutonium, enhancing the detection of smuggling, and cybersecurity.

Considerable progress has been made, with several countries reducing or eliminating their stockpiles of nuclear material.

For example, Japan this month is returning to the United States enough plutonium to make 50 nuclear bombs.

But despite these advances, a January report by the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), a leading US nonproliferation watchdog, found basic weaknesses persist in securing the world's fissile materials.

And according to a 2015 study by the International Panel on Fissile Materials, enough plutonium and highly enriched uranium stockpiles remain to make the equivalent of 200,000 weapons of the magnitude that leveled Hiroshima in 1945.

- Narrow scope? -

The fissile materials in question do not include state-owned nuclear weapons, leading critics to say the summits are not broad enough in scope.

"This is an important mission, but it's beneath the pay grade of the 50 or 60 heads of state that are going to convene in Washington," said Bruce Blair, co-founder of anti-nuclear group Global Zero.

"We should have an agenda ... that would cover all fissile materials, civilian and military."

- New dangers -

Since the summits began, 14 nations have eliminated their fissile material stockpiles, and other countries have stepped up efforts to secure theirs.

But at the same time, other nations are ramping up their nuclear capabilities.

Countries like Pakistan, India and North Korea have built new bombs, and experts warn these fall behind in safety standards aimed at preventing accidental detonation.

The Islamic State group has already used chemical weapons, and experts fear the jihadists are trying to secure fissile material to make a "dirty bomb." Such a device is a regular bomb, but would explode radioactive material across an area.

Highlighting the risks, Belgian police investigating the November 13 Paris terror attacks found 10 hours of video of the comings and goings of a senior Belgian nuclear official.

One agenda item at the summit will see leaders discussing a hypothetical nuclear security crisis.

- Next steps, possible outcomes -

Sharon Squassoni, director and senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies' proliferation prevention program, said the latest summit aims to consolidate progress made so far, such as seeing countries that committed to certain actions implement these.

The 2014 summit saw 35 countries sign up to various pledges -- but key players including China, India, Russia and Pakistan did not join in.

"It would be really important for those countries to sign on," Squassoni said.

Other new commitments could include greater information exchange, or the opening up of facilities to inspection by peer nations or the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Given this is the last summit under Obama, a big question will be how nations can track progress in the future and whether the United States will continue to convene such meetings under its next president.

The specter of the Islamic State group obtaining a "dirty bomb" will loom over a top-level nuclear security summit hosted by President Barack Obama in Washington on Thursday and Friday.

Obama welcomes several leaders from countries as diverse as China and Nigeria, as well as representatives from nearly 50 other nations, for the summit aimed at elevating the problem of shaky safeguards from the desks of technocrats to the highest corridors of power.

The meeting comes just days after 32 people were killed and 340 were injured in bombings at Brussels airport and the Belgian capital's metro.

The attacks featured conventional explosives, but two of the suicide bombers -- Ibrahim and Khalid El Bakraoui -- have been linked to possible efforts by the Islamic State (IS) group to secure fissile material.

Late last year, Belgian police investigating the November 13 Paris terror attacks found 10 hours of video surveillance detailing the comings and goings of a senior Belgian nuclear official.

Belgian media have since reported that the brothers were linked to the surveillance.

The incident has only heightened existing concerns about IS efforts to get nuclear material.

"Having a portion of the discussion that is focused on counter-ISIL is a decision that was made in January," said Laura Holgate, the National Security Council's senior director for weapons of mass destruction, terrorism and threat reduction. "But it turns out that it is obviously very timely, unfortunately.

"The video footage is of concern," she said, adding, with regard to the Belgian case, that the United States does not "have any information that a broader plot exists."

But groups like the Islamic State have long shown their interest in obtaining nuclear material.

"We've seen over the years that different terrorist organizations have ambitions related to acquiring nuclear materials," said Deputy National Security Advisor Ben Rhodes.

"We've seen that in their public statements, we've seen that in some cases in their monitoring of nuclear facilities," he added.

"That's why the summit process is so important, because different countries have different levels of security at their facilities or in terms of how they are handling nuclear materials."

- Dirty bomb -

Obama personally launched the first head of government-level nuclear security summit in Washington in 2010, after describing nuclear terrorism as the "most immediate and extreme threat to global security."

Subsequent meetings in South Korea and the Netherlands have focused on securing stockpiles, reducing highly enriched uranium and separated plutonium, smuggling detection and cybersecurity.

Few believe IS could develop an atomic bomb, but many fear it could acquire uranium or plutonium and construct a "dirty bomb."

Such a device would not trigger a nuclear explosion but would scatter radioactive material -- with potentially devastating physiological, medical and economic effects.

Nuclear material can be found in small quantities at universities, hospitals and other facilities the world over, often not well secured.

Since the mid-1990s, almost 2,800 incidents of illicit trafficking, "unauthorized possession" or loss of nuclear materials have been recorded in an International Atomic Energy Agency database.

A US government audit late last year found that Obama's goal of improving the physical protection of more than 43 sensitive buildings and making 34 foreign reactors more "proliferation-resistant" had fallen short.

The International Panel on Fissile Materials, an independent group of arms-control experts, estimated that the global stockpile of highly enriched uranium stood at around 1370 tonnes at the end of 2014.

Most was held in Russia.

- Lame duck? -

More than fifty heads of state have been invited to attend the summit, but the absence of leaders from Russia, North Korea, Iran and Belarus virtually ensures gaps in the united front.

Rhodes said Russia's decision not to attend at the highest level was a missed opportunity for Moscow, which itself faces significant threats of its own.

Obama leaves office in less than a year, raising questions about whether the initiative will continue without his personal involvement.

"World leaders face a stark choice at the final nuclear security summit later this month: Will they commit to continuous improvement, or will nuclear security efforts stall and potentially decline?" said experts at the respected Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University.

"Their answer will shape the chances that terrorist groups, including the Islamic State, could get their hands on the materials they need to build a crude nuclear bomb."

White House spokesman Josh Earnest said the administration hopes Obama's successor will take up the mantle.

"I certainly hope that the incoming president would understand that safeguarding loose nuclear materials around the globe is a top national security priority of the United States," he said.


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