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Is Iran really arming Yemen's Huthi rebels?
By Marc Jourdier
Tehran (AFP) Dec 20, 2017


As Huthi rebels in Yemen have fired ballistic missiles at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and the US ratcheted up allegations that Iran is arming the fighters.

Tehran on the other hand remains adamant that it is not funnelling weapons to the Huthis -- and the UN seems unsure.

Here is what we know about the allegations:

What's the background?

The United States and its ally Saudi Arabia have long seen Iran's hand behind the rise of the Huthis and the bloody turmoil on the kingdom's southern border.

The Sunni kingdom and Shiite Iran are fierce rivals which have long been engaged in a struggle for influence in the Middle East.

The Huthis follow Zaidism, a moderate sect of Shiite Islam.

Since assuming power US President Donald Trump has sought to ratchet up pressure on Iran.

After Huthi fighters captured Yemen's capital Sanaa in 2014, Riyadh gathered a coalition of Arab allies for an air and ground campaign to tackle them -- and the perceived threat from Iran.

Despite a ferocious bombing campaign involving US-supplied arms, the Saudi-led coalition has failed to oust the Huthis from Sanaa and the front lines remain locked in stalemate.

The air strikes and a punishing blockade imposed by the coalition have helped create a humanitarian catastrophe that has drawn condemnation from the United Nations.

Tensions spiked dramatically when the Huthis fired a ballistic missile at Riyadh on November 4, followed by another on December 19.

While Saudi air defences intercepted the missiles before they could cause any damage, Riyadh and Washington were quick to claim they were manufactured and supplied by Iran.

Powerful Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman warned ominously that arming Yemen's Huthis could be considered an "act of war".

Iranian response?

Squaring off against the Saudis in regional power struggles from Syria to Lebanon, Iran insists the Huthi rebels are simply defending their country from external aggression.

Tehran has "strongly denied" the accusation that it is arming the Huthis, pointing out that a tight Saudi blockade makes such deliveries impossible.

Any arms being used by the rebels are leftovers from deliveries sent to Yemen's former ruling regime, it argues.

Any concrete proof?

Last week the US ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley showed off weapon fragments that she said were "irrefutable evidence" missiles fired by the Huthis came from Iran.

Iran ridiculed the claims and likened them to false US accusations ahead of the invasion of Iraq about weapons of mass destruction.

The UN has been far more circumspect and said debris from missiles fired at Saudi Arabia pointed to a "common origin" but there was no firm conclusion as to whether they came from an Iranian supplier.

In a report in January 2017, UN experts said they had "not seen sufficient evidence to confirm any direct large-scale supply of arms" by Iran, although there were "indicators" of anti-tank weapons being sent.

Clement Therme, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, says "the country of origin of the arms is only one of the elements needed to know with certainty" who supplied them.

Telling where the weapons came from is "very difficult at this stage".

What's Iran's Yemen policy?

It is difficult to find much trace in Iranian official statements of sustained support for the Huthis in Yemen.

Instead, when talking about the war there, Iranian leaders focus on criticising archfoe Saudi Arabia for its bombing campaign.

"Yemen is not a priority for Iranian strategy in the Middle East," says Therme from the IISS, as Tehran focuses it energies on other conflicts bubbling around the region.

However, he said, Iran profits from exploiting the Yemen conflict for its propaganda goals as it looks to "weaken an ally of the US, Saudi Arabia".

And even in the US some influential voices have highlighted doubts that it is really Tehran pulling the strings in Yemen.

"Many observers assess that Iran's influence over the Huthis is limited," said the Congressional Research Service in a September report for the US Congress.

"That the Huthi insurrection was not instigated by Iran, and that Iran's support for the Huthis has been modest."

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