Despite monsoon havoc, India monsoons below baseline amid water crisis

India's weather agency said Monday it was set to cut estimates for average monsoon rainfall after decades of below-normal downpours, with climate change causing greater variations.

The South Asian nation is grappling with a severe water crisis, with emergency supplies sent to Chennai after the drought-hit southern city saw only a fraction of the rain it usually receives during June and July.

The India Meteorological Department climate research chief Sivananda Pai said the country was in the middle of a multi-decadal epoch of low rainfall.

"If you take an average of 30 to 40 years, compared to say a 100 years of normal rainfall, we are passing through a below-normal rainfall," he told AFP.

The current average of 89 centimetres (35 inches), he said, was based on the agency's observation from 1951-2000. The government agency revises the "normal" rain baseline every decade.

With India in a "low epoch" since the 1990s, meaning average rainfall has been below normal, a lower average rainfall forecast was likely, Pai said.

"It was around 88 centimetres during the period 1961 to 2010. When the new normal is extended to 2020, a further decrease is possible," he added.

Rainfall for June in India was 112.1 millimetres compared to the average of 166.9 millimetres, a deficit of 33 percent according to the weather agency.

Pai said while average rainfall levels can change over the decades due to natural variability, "we can't ignore the linkages to climate change".

"Heavy rainfall and long dry periods can be linked to climate change. This has been the case across the world," he said.

In contrast to the crisis in Chennai, other parts of the country's north and east have been grappling with heavy flooding which has killed hundreds of people.

Monsoon toll tops 650 as rains unleash flood fury in South Asia
New Delhi (AFP) July 22, 2019 - Severe floods and lightning have claimed the lives of more than 650 people across India, Nepal, Bangladesh and Pakistan, officials said Monday as the annual monsoon took its toll on the rainfed region.

More than 10 million people in the South Asian countries have been affected by the deluge, which has also forced tens of thousands to flee their homes.

In India, heavy rains since the start of July have killed at least 467 people with many districts in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Assam states cut off because of flooding.

In Uttar Pradesh on Sunday, lightning strikes killed 37 people in separate incidents, a disaster management official told AFP. The latest fatalities took the northern state's toll to 228 dead.

Eight children playing in the open in Bihar's Nawada district were also killed by lightning on Friday, taking the toll in the eastern state to more than 100 as rivers overflowed their banks and swept away people, houses and cattle.

In Assam, 67 people have perished but the situation was likely to improve with no heavy rains predicted in the coming days.

But the prospects were grim for southern India's coastal state of Kerala where authorities Monday warned of "extremely heavy falls" in isolated places.

India's coastal Karnataka, West Bengal and Himalayan Sikkim states were also bracing for heavy downpours.

More than 70 people have also died in building collapses in Maharashtra and Himachal Pradesh states following substantial rainfalls.

In neighbouring Nepal, 90 people have died and another 29 are missing, although the worst seems to be over in the Himalayan country.

"Rains have been predicted this week and we are on alert, but we don't expect it to have a severe impact," home ministry official Bedh Nidhi Khanal said.

Torrential rains in flood-prone Bangladesh have killed more than 97 people -- most by drowning and lightning strikes -- in the last two weeks, with swathes of agricultural fields lying inundated.

A third of the country has been submerged as major rivers including the Brahmaputra -- which broke a 44-year water-level record last week -- and the Ganges burst their banks from heavy rains and from water from India and Nepal.

At least 30 people have also lost their lives in Pakistan.

While the annual rains are crucial to replenishing water supplies in the impoverished region, they often turn deadly.

Experts blame poor planning, the lack of drainage facilities and tardy relief operations for the casualties.

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