From peak to plummet: impending decline of the warm Arctic-cold continents phenomenon

From peak to plummet: impending decline of the warm Arctic-cold continents phenomenon
by Riko Seibo
Tokyo, Japan (SPX) Apr 18, 2024

Despite February 2024 being globally the warmest on record, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, North America, Asia, and parts of Europe experienced historically cold temperatures. Places like China's Mohe and Russia's Yakutsk saw life-threatening lows, highlighting a critical climatic contradiction as global temperatures rise.

This phenomenon, known as the Warm Arctic-Cold Continent (WACC), is driven by a warming Arctic which disrupts mid-latitude climates by causing severe cold spells. The rapid warming of the Arctic serves as a stark indicator of broader climatic shifts. However, the future trajectory of WACC events remains uncertain as global and Arctic temperatures continue to rise.

A team from the School of Earth Sciences and Environmental Engineering at Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology, led by Professor Jin-Ho Yoon and Ph.D. student Yungi Hong, explored this phenomenon. Their research, utilizing the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble Project, spans climate patterns from 1920 to 2100. Published on March 11, 2024, in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, their findings suggest that while WACC events have intensified up to the 2020s, a significant decline is expected after the 2030s. "These events will sharply decline post-2030s, but this does not translate to fewer extreme weather events. Instead, as winters warm due to global warming, fewer but more severe cold snaps are anticipated," explains Prof. Yoon.

The anticipated disappearance of WACC by the late 21st century signals a shift to new forms of extreme weather, necessitating updates to climate models to enhance forecasting and response strategies. This evolving understanding of WACC underscores the complexities of climate systems and the unpredictable impacts of global warming.

With the trajectory of WACC events nearing a drastic shift, urgent action is required to refine global climate strategies and reassess societal preparedness and adaptation. "Understanding the impact of this shift and devising appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies is crucial for the future of our winter climate," states Mr. Hong, emphasizing the urgent need for collaborative efforts in climate resilience.

The study stands as a crucial call to action for communities, policymakers, and scientists to engage more deeply in adapting to and mitigating the effects of climate change.

Research Report:From peak to plummet: impending decline of the warm Arctic-cold continents phenomenon