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Clinton vows no US troops in Syria, Iraq
by Staff Writers
Washington (AFP) Dec 1, 2015


China's Xi heads to Zimbabwe ahead of Africa summit
Harare (AFP) Dec 1, 2015 - China's President Xi Jinping is due to start a five-day visit to Zimbabwe and South Africa on Tuesday, with African concern over the impact of the Chinese economic slowdown set to dominate the agenda.

Xi will be the most prominent global leader to visit Zimbabwe for many years as veteran President Robert Mugabe, 91, is widely shunned by Western powers.

Xi and a large Chinese delegation fly on to Johannesburg on Wednesday ahead of the sixth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), which will gather leaders from across the continent.

Seeking raw material to fuel its booming economy, China has poured investment into Africa and became the continent's largest trade partner in 2009.

But Chinese investment in Africa fell by more than 40 percent in the first half of 2015 due to its reduced demand for commodities such as oil, iron ore and copper.

Xi will start his trip in Harare, capital of Zimbabwe, where Chinese projects have been one of the few pillars holding up an economy in dire straits under Mugabe's rule.

"Agreements will be signed, especially in the areas of infrastructure, agriculture and transport," Zimbabwean foreign affairs secretary Joey Bimha told the state-owned Herald newspaper.

"Many Chinese businesspeople... will interact with their local counterparts leading to more Chinese investment or joint ventures and business benefits to Zimbabwe."

China is the largest buyer of tobacco from Zimbabwe, and -- as in many African countries -- has invested in mining, manufacturing and infrastructure.

China built Zimbabwe's National Sports Stadium in the 1980s, as well as rural hospitals and the country's biggest shopping mall, and also provided loans for water schemes and power stations.

"China and Zimbabwe, in spite of the vast distance between them, have maintained a traditional friendship that is deep and firm," Xi said in an article in the Herald.

- 'Little improvement' -

But Zimbabwe's economic troubles, which saw inflation soar to 500 billion percent during a decade-long recession that ended 2009, are unlikely to be solved by any new Chinese investments.

"It's not going to change our economic fortunes in the short-term," Antony Hawkins, an economist at the University of Zimbabwe's School of Business, told AFP.

"Considering what has happened with past deals, we are sceptical of promises of big, megaprojects. We have had a lot of Chinese involvement before, but little improvement has happened."

Xi is expected to attend a state banquet hosted by Mugabe and also visit the Heroes Acre memorial site that honours Zimbabwe's war dead.

Mugabe, who has often been accused of repression and human rights abuses, was in October awarded the Confucius Peace Prize, a would-be Chinese rival to the Nobel Prize.

Before the two-day summit of African leaders begins in Johannesburg on Friday, Xi will hold talks with South African President Jacob Zuma.

Xi, Mugabe and Zuma attended the opening of the climate change summit in Paris on Monday.

US Democratic presidential frontrunner Hillary Clinton said Monday that putting American combat troops on the ground in Syria or Iraq to fight the Islamic State group was a "non-starter."

"Well, at this point I cannot conceive of any circumstances where I would agree to do that because I think the best way to defeat ISIS is, as I've said, from the air which we lead, on the ground, which we enable, empower, train, equip and in cyberspace where, don't forget, they are a formidable adversary online," Clinton said.

She was speaking to "CBS This Morning" in excerpts released in advance of the full interview airing early Tuesday.

President Barack Obama last month authorized no more than 50 special operations forces to deploy to northern Syria in a non-combatant, advisory role to help coordinate local ground troops and anti-IS coalition efforts.

It is unclear whether the forces have already arrived in Syria.

"We don't know yet how many Special Forces might be needed, how many trainers and surveillance and enablers might be needed, but in terms of thousands of combat troops like some on the Republican side are recommending, I think that should be a non-starter," Clinton said.

"I agree with the president's point that we're not putting American combat troops back into Syria or Iraq. We are not going to do that."

Coalition's Kurd-heavy anti-IS strategy risky: analysts
Baghdad (AFP) Dec 1, 2015 - The US-led coalition has made Iraqi and Syrian Kurdish forces primary allies against the Islamic State jihadist group, but over-reliance on the Kurds carries risks, analysts warn.

As the world seeks to turn up the heat on IS, some of the West's main partners on the ground are the peshmerga forces from Iraq's autonomous Kurdish region and the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) in Syria.

The first soldiers officially deployed by the United States in Syria arrived last week in the north to train the YPG, a group which has close ties to Turkey's terror-listed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) rebels but which has also notched up significant military successes against IS.

In the aftermath of the deadly November 13 attacks claimed by IS in Paris, French Prime Minister Manuel Valls emphasised the need to support Kurdish forces on the ground.

After IS took over swathes of Iraq in 2014, Washington launched air strikes alongside a programme to train and equip local forces.

The US "picked the Iraqi Kurds because they were strategic partners during the 2003 invasion and were, at least in their eyes, the most trustworthy," said Maria Fantappie, Iraq senior analyst with International Crisis Group.

More than a year on, multi-million-dollar attempts to groom Sunni Arab forces in both Iraq and Syria have yielded limited results at best and failed to sabotage IS' self-proclaimed "caliphate".

Attacks in France, elections in the US and a migrant crisis across Europe converge to up public pressure for swift and decisive action against the increasingly global threat of IS.

- Bargaining chips -

Kurdish forces are among the most skilled, organised and determined to battle IS in the region.

But analysts warn military action should be matched with political planning for the post-IS era in Iraq and Syria, and that relying too heavily on the Kurds could backfire.

The lack of a roadmap addressing Kurdish statehood aspirations is an incentive for groups to secure as many future bargaining chips as possible by winning military brownie points now.

Fantappie said that explains why the YPG might be prepared to push beyond Kurdish areas and take part in an offensive to recapture the IS hub of Raqa, an almost entirely Arab city.

"Definitely this is on their mind, especially for the YPG, which strives to gain international recognition," she said.

In neighbouring Iraq, forces loyal to the regional Kurdish president Massud Barzani last month retook the town of Sinjar, the main hub of Iraq's Yazidi minority.

Before IS swept across Iraq last year, it was under Baghdad's authority, not part of the autonomous Kurdish region, but Barzani is now pushing plans to maintain control of the area.

Barzani "effectively announced Sinjar's annexation into the Iraqi Kurdistan region," Patrick Martin, Iraq researcher at the Institute for the Study of War, said.

"There have been no indications that Kurdish fighters are prepared to hand control of the district to the Iraqi federal government," he said.

- 'Imbalanced relationship' -

Michael Knights, a fellow at the Washington Institute, which focuses on US policy in the Near East, said any operation to free Iraq's second city Mosul from IS would be headquartered on Kurdish real estate.

"Until (IS) is removed from Mosul, the Kurds will remain a key ally. Thereafter, their future is much harder to gauge," he said.

Knights said that Kurdish expansion was already close to peaking in Iraq and would be limited by a negative reaction from Baghdad, which also receives help from the coalition against IS.

The same limitation applies to Syria, where too much consolidation of Kurdish influence in the north would not sit well with NATO member Turkey.

Even where the coalition is trying to foster Kurdish-Arab alliances against the jihadists, the relationship is tilted in the Kurds' favour, Fantappie said.

"By picking the Kurds as strategic allies, you have created an imbalanced relationship between the Kurds and the other communities living with the Kurds," she said.

In northern Syria, the Syrian Democratic Forces alliance brings together the YPG and Arab forces, but the Kurds have direct access to funds and weapons while their partners do not, she said.

"And this is dangerous because this military support can have unintended consequences..., can redraw borders within those countries and create the premises for future conflicts and tensions between the Kurds and their neighbours."


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