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Analysis: Will Syria And Iran Help Iraq?

US President George W. Bush speaks to veterans and active duty military during a 'War on Terror" speech at the Tobyhanna Army Depot in Tobyhanna, Pennsylvania, 11 November, 2005. Bush called on Syria Friday to "stop trying to intimidate and destabilize" Lebanon and to cooperate fully with the UN probe into the slaying of former Lebanese premier Rafiq Hariri. AFP photo by Jim Watson.

Washington (UPI) Nov 14, 2005
With two Iraqi leaders paying separate visits to Washington last week and President Bush addressing the war on terrorism in a Veterans' Day speech on Friday, the question of Iraq's neighbors -- and their role in the war -- looms large.

The Bush administration has kept up its tough rhetoric against Syria and Iran. Speaking in Pennsylvania Friday, Bush said the two countries have "a long history of collaboration with terrorists" and called on Syria in particular to "stop exporting violence and start importing democracy."

But the position of the Iraqi leaders in Washington last week was softer. In his own speech at a think tank on Thursday, Iraqi deputy vice president Adel Abdul-Mahdi said the problem of terrorism does not rest with Syria and Iran, but with a wider culture in the Middle East of propaganda being spread through mosques.

He said terrorism affects all states in the region -- citing the Nov. 9 hotel bombings in Jordan -- and called for "full cooperation" among countries in the Middle East to combat the problem.

Meanwhile, Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Ahmed Chalabi -- fresh from a visit to Tehran -- called Syria and Iran "somewhat problematic," but indicated that cooperation with both was possible. Chalabi said Iranian leaders shared his wish that Iraq and Iran form "good, wide-ranging, transparent relationships."

On the issue of Syria, which the United States has accused of allowing terrorists to cross the border into Iraq, Chalabi was tougher, but indicated that Damascus could be persuaded to stop those terrorists. A major factor in Syrian-Iraqi relations is oil, he said, and opening a pipeline from Iraq to the Mediterranean Sea through Syria would be of "enormous benefit" to Syria and could be used to negotiate help in the war on terrorism.

With different diplomatic signals coming from Bush and Iraqi leaders, the question remains: Is it realistic to expect Syria and Iran to help fight terrorism in Iraq?

Not with the current U.S. approach to the region, according to James Dobbins, director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center at the nonprofit RAND Corp.

That's because the Bush administration is pursuing its own objectives in the Middle East illogically and decreasing the likelihood of regional cooperation, said Dobbins, a former U.S. envoy in Kosovo, Bosnia, Haiti, Somalia and Afghanistan. While the United States is calling for democracy in Syria and trying to halt nuclear proliferation in Iran, it has lost sight of the region's most immediate concern, Dobbins said -- Iraq's instability.

"The administration's problem is that it's trying to do too much in the greater Middle East," Dobbins said. "It's trying to stabilize Iraq, destabilize Syria and denuclearize Iran all at the same time. You can do any one of those [things] and maybe, eventually, over a very extended period of time, all three of them. But you can't possibly do all three at once. We don't prioritize."

Although Syria and Iran deserve U.S. attention, the Bush administration has focused too much on Iraq's neighbors, Dobbins said, noting Iran is still years away from acquiring a nuclear weapon. Current U.S. policy in the Middle East is counterproductive because Syria and Iran are unlikely to help stabilize Iraq as long as the United States is threatening them, he said.

By way of comparison, Dobbins said that stabilization efforts in Afghanistan have been far more successful than in Iraq because the United States has engaged Afghanistan's neighbors in a positive way.

"We went into Afghanistan not with the objective of making Afghanistan a model for central Asia and then democratizing every other country in central Asia as soon as we finished," Dobbins said. "As a result, we were able to engage all of its neighbors constructively in its stabilization. All of the neighbors have, in fact, continued to support [Afghani President] Karzai because we're not saying, 'As soon as we finish here, you're next.'"

One of the problems with Iran and Syria is their seemingly contradictory motivations in Iraq. A stable Iraq would be in both countries' interest, yet to date they have done little to help their neighbor, analysts said. That's probably the result of the war on terrorism's American face, and could change as the United States stands down, according to some experts.

Another way for the United States to stabilize Iraq and engage its neighbors constructively would be to encourage greater Arab League involvement, said Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The disenchanted Sunni minority that is leading the insurgency in Iraq are "the people who feel like their country's been taken away from right under their noses," Alterman said, and do not trust the United States at all. But calling for help in Iraq from the Arab League -- an organization of Arab states including Syria -- could protect the Sunni and "make them feel like their interests are being looked after," Alterman said.

"We can talk about how useless the Arab League has been for so much of its existence, but I think this is a task (in which) the Arab League can play a very constructive role," Alterman said. "I think because so many of the countries around Iraq are terrified this whole thing is going to turn into a disaster, they're poised to play a constructive role and I think we should seize on that."

But perhaps the last word goes to Abdul-Mahdi, the Iraqi deputy vice president, whose brother was assassinated Oct. 30 in Baghdad as he traveled to Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari's office, where he was an adviser.

Although the United States has reason to focus on the influence of Syria and Iran in Iraq, Abdul-Mahdi predicted that terrorism will start "shifting" away from Iraq as local security forces gain experience. Terrorism is not only an Iraqi problem, but will become a problem of the country's neighbors as well, he said.

"The responsibility ... is on all of us," Abdul-Mahdi said.

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