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Analysis: Growing Kazakh maritime trade

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by John C.K. Daly
Washington (UPI) Jan 24, 2008
While most visitors to the rising petro-state of Kazakhstan are dazzled by the oil-fueled construction boom in Astana and the former capital, Almaty, an equally significant town is rising on the eastern shores of the Caspian.

What is most extraordinary about Aktau is its youth; the town was only founded in 1961 as a small village, after large crude oil deposits were discovered nearby. Two years later, Aktau was granted municipal status, and in 1964 was named after the Ukrainian poet Taras Shevchenko, who was exiled there in the 19th century by the czarist government. Following Kazakhstan's Declaration of Independence in 1991, the city reverted to its original name.

Aktau now has the feeling of an oil boom town port. The majority of Kazakh oil exports are transmitted via the 1.1 million barrel per day Caspian Pipeline Consortium Pipeline. The 938-mile pipeline, opened in 2001, runs from Kazakhstan's massive Tengiz oil field to Russia's Novorossiisk maritime terminal on the Sea of Azov. In contrast, Aktau is landlocked, as the sole egress from the Caspian is the Volga-Don Canal, which transits the Russian Federation. Despite such limitations, Aktau's oil exports are steadily rising; in 2007 Aktau exported more than 11 million tons of cargo, of which oil accounted for 9.3 million tons, a 13.5 percent increase over the port's 2006 exports. In perhaps the ultimate capitalist accolade, the port even boasts the Marriott Renaissance Aktau Hotel, with "Most hotel rooms with view of Caspian Sea."

Aktau has now reached its capacity for oil exports and the Kazakh government is undertaking an ambitious port expansion project to raise the facility's annual handling capability to 20 million tons of oil and 3 million tons of dry cargo. The total cost of the project is estimated to be $314 million.

Despite its relative isolation, Aktau is truly an international facility, as its oil exports are sent by tanker to Russia's Makhachkala port in Dagestan, Azerbaijan's Baku port and to Iran's Caspian Neka terminus. Kazakh maritime oil exports across the Caspian have seen the rise of a Kazakh tanker fleet. Kazmortransflot was formed in 1998 following a government decree to develop sea transport and is owned by Kazakhstan's Transport and Communications Ministry and KazMunaiGas. Lacking its own nautical construction facilities, Kazmortransflot subcontracted its construction to Russian shipyards. Kazmortransflot's first tanker was the 12,000-ton, $18.75 million Astana, designed by the Russian maritime bureau Vympel.

Russia's Vyborg Shipyard in Leningrad Oblast built the Astana, which in early 2005 sailed Russian inland waterways and the Volga-Don Canal to the Caspian. The Astana has since been joined by sister tankers Almaty and Aktau, also designed by Vympel and built by Vyborg Shipyard.

Kazakh maritime ambitions do not stop there; during a welcoming ceremony for the Astana in Aktau on May 25, 2005, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev declared that Kazakhstan intended to build a 60,000-ton tanker, doubtless good news for Vympel, as design work for the Kazakh merchant marine now provides about 30 percent of the bureau's revenue.

Aktau's exports, while rising, remain a minor fraction of Kazakhstan's total exports, accounting for less than 10 percent of the country's hydrocarbon shipments. In 2006, Kazakhstan produced 54.341 million tons of oil, of which Kazmortransflot transported 4.779 million tons, an increase of 1.4 percent from 2005's 4.714 million tons. Of the exports, Kazmortransflot shipped 2.456 million tons of oil from Aktau to Makhachkala, 2.226 million tons from Aktau to Neka and 97,000 tons to Baku.

Aktau's role in Kazakh energy exports may soon increase dramatically, as Astana is considering the feasibility of constructing a Caspian seabed oil pipeline to connect Aktau with Baku, which would allow Kazakhstan to use the $3.6 billion, 1,092-mile Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline to ship its products directly to Western markets, bypassing Russia's pipeline monopoly stranglehold on Kazakh hydrocarbon exports.

Needless to say, the project is opposed by both Russia and Iran.

The head of Iran's Foreign Ministry's department for relations with the CIS, Mortaza Saffari, initially couched his opposition in environmental terms, telling journalists, "Since the region is seismically active and there are strong currents in the part of the sea where the pipeline is to pass, building it on the Caspian seabed would be very dangerous for the environment of the whole region. This is why we assess Kazakhstan's decision to join the project negatively."

He added that as all five Caspian littoral states had signed a convention on regional environmental protection, "such projects may be carried out only with the consent of all countries."

Later in the interview Saffari tipped his legalistic hand, commenting, "The question of building the pipeline from Aktau to Baku on the seabed was not discussed with Iran, and its construction may not begin legally without that."

Behind Saffari's bluster is the uncomfortable fact that the construction of such a pipeline would finally quash any Iranian hopes for increased oil swaps with Kazakhstan.

For Mangistausky region Gov. Krymbek Kusherbayev, whose jurisdiction includes Aktau, the future is dazzling. He said the Mangyshlak Peninsula, where Aktau is situated, could itself ultimately produce about 90 million tons of oil annually. Whether Aktau's exports move by tanker or pipeline, it would seem that the Marriott will shortly be joined by other luxury hotels as the 47-year-old former village completes its metamorphosis into a major oil export harbor.

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