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Trump puts Chinese ties at risk while wooing Russia
By Dave Clark
Washington (AFP) Dec 12, 2016


Beijing warns Trump over One China policy
Beijing (AFP) Dec 12, 2016 - Beijing issued its first clear warning Monday over Donald Trump's fiery rhetoric, as state media said the Asian giant could back "forces hostile to the US" if the president-elect follows through with threats to drop Washington's One China policy.

It was the strongest signal yet from Chinese authorities that abandoning the One China policy, which guides relations with self-ruling Taiwan, would upset decades of carefully managed Sino-US relations and end cooperation between the world's top two economies.

Beijing has not controlled Taiwan for more than 60 years but foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said it considered the island a "core interest" that affected China's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The One China policy was the "political bedrock" for relations with the US, he added, and if it was "compromised or disrupted", sound and steady growth in China-US relations and cooperation in major fields would be "out of the question", he told reporters.

The comments came in response to Trump's remarks in an interview Sunday that he did not see why Washington must "be bound by a One China policy unless we make a deal with China having to do with other things, including trade".

He vehemently defended taking a call earlier this month from Tsai Ing-wen, the democratically elected president of Taiwan, which Beijing regards as a rogue province awaiting unification.

Although the United States is Taiwan's main ally and arms supplier, Washington has not had official diplomatic relations with Taipei since 1979, when it switched recognition to Beijing.

Trump's decision to take the call broke with protocol, and seemed to catch China's Communist Party leadership by surprise.

The official response was initially muted, and state media largely blamed Taiwan for the phone call and advocated a wait-and-see response.

But the remarks on Monday were more pointed, and a commentary in the nationalistic Global Times offered a more menacing warning to Trump, calling him "as ignorant of diplomacy as a child", in its Chinese-language version.

If the US openly supports Taiwan's independence and ramps up arms sales to the island, it threatened, China could aid "forces hostile to the US".

"In response to Trump's provocations, Beijing could offer support, even military assistance to US foes," it said.

"China would introduce a series of new Taiwan polices, and may not prioritise peaceful reunification over a military takeover."

- 'Novice' -

Despite the escalation in official rhetoric, many Chinese analysts still offer a note of restraint, emphasising Trump's background in business, not politics, and the possibility his actions in office will take a softer line.

"I think this could be his negotiating technique because he knows the Taiwan issue is an extremely sensitive issue, an issue China is very concerned about," Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, told AFP.

Trump was playing the card in hopes of winning concessions on trade, he said, adding that China should not be "too nervous" nor should it react "too fiercely".

"We have to wait until after he takes office, then look again at his concrete actions."

Trump last week appointed Iowa Governor Terry Branstad, who is personally acquainted with Chinese President Xi Jinping, as ambassador to Beijing, which hailed the nominee as a "friend of China".

A commentary on the official Xinhua news service on Monday compared the two countries' relations to people who "want to be close friends".

The US must know "where to draw the line", it said, noting that previous presidents have set good examples and "now the ball is in President-elect Donald Trump's court".

With a few apparently off-the-cuff comments, US President-elect Donald Trump has threatened Washington's cautious understanding with China while touting an unlikely new detente with Russia.

The United States and China, the world's two greatest economies and rivals for the leadership role in the Pacific, are often at loggerheads over trade, human rights and regional disputes.

But President Barack Obama has extended a hand to China's Xi Jinping and worked with Beijing on the global climate change accord and on measures against North Korea's rogue regime.

On Monday, businesswoman turned defeated presidential hopeful Carly Fiorina left Trump's New York office and said they had discussed Trump's opportunity to "reset" US foreign relations.

As part of this, Fiorina told reporters, she and Trump "spent a fair amount of time talking about China as probably our most important adversary and a rising adversary."

Never has current US leader Obama called into question the "One China" doctrine, which accepts that currently self-administered Taiwan is part of one state one day to be united under Beijing.

Trump may have recently taken advice from Henry Kissinger, architect of late president Richard Nixon's US-China breakthrough, but he has broken with this four-decade consensus.

Over the weekend, in a series of Tweets and an interview with Fox News, the incoming president suggested Beijing may have to make concessions on trade if US policy is not to change.

The tactic drew scorn from the outgoing US administration. Obama's spokesman Josh Earnest said Taiwan's future should not become a "bargaining chip" in US relations with Beijing.

In directly challenging China over trade and its takeover of disputed islets in the South China Sea, Trump risks provoking Beijing into a response with global economic implications.

"I don't know why we have to be bound by a One China policy unless we make a deal with China having to do with other things, including trade," Trump told Fox News.

In this, he was doubling down on an earlier provocation when he took a call from Tsai Ing-wen, the elected president of Taiwan, in a break with established US protocol of non-recognition.

The response from China -- America's biggest single goods trading partner and the holder of almost a trillion dollars in US government debt -- was ominous.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said Beijing considers the island a "core interest" in China's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The One China policy is the "political bedrock" of relations with the US, he added and if it is "compromised or disrupted" cooperation in major fields would be "out of the question."

- 'Childish ignorance' -

This firm warning was echoed in Chinese state media, including in an editorial in the Global Times that dubbed the famously thin-skinned Trump "as ignorant of diplomacy as a child."

Trump has also said he will declare China, which he accuses of keeping the Renminbi artificially low to favor its exports, a currency manipulator, forcing a renegotiation of trade ties.

If he makes good on his campaign promises to tax US companies that move plants offshore and to impose tariffs on cheap imported goods, Trump could provoke a trade war.

In the meantime, Trump has pledged to walk away from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal, disappointing allies like Japan and ceding ground to China in the Pacific leadership stakes.

When Kissinger and Nixon launched their detente with China 45 years ago it was in part to ensure Washington was not fighting the Cold War on two fronts against both Beijing and Moscow.

Now, Trump appears to be trying to flip this paradigm on its head by needling China while showing all signs of wanting to thaw relations with Vladimir Putin's aggressive Russia.

He has pushed back furiously at the suggestion in leaks from the CIA that Putin's intelligence services hacked US political parties and planted false news to further Trump's campaign.

After her chat with Trump, Fiorina even tried to flip the focus of the scandal by saying they discussed "hacking, whether it's Chinese hacking or purported Russian hacking."

- Order of friendship -

Trump has defended his desire to have better relations with Russia, arguing it would be a good partner in the fight against the Islamic State group, despite Putin's annexation of Crimea.

Last week, Putin reciprocated Trump's evident enthusiasm for closer ties, dubbing him a "clever person" who will "fully and quite quickly grasp a different level of responsibility."

And, while clues to the detail of Trump's future foreign policy are lacking, his choice of personnel speaks volumes.

Trump's national security adviser will be former US defense intelligence chief Mike Flynn, reportedly forced into retirement by Obama's administration for his erratic style.

Flynn was a guest at a 2015 Moscow dinner held by Russia's state television network RT to honor Putin, and has defended Moscow from criticism of its campaign in Syria.

Meanwhile, ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson, favorite to be named Trump's secretary of state, opposed sanctions on Russia and in 2013 was awarded the Order of Friendship by Putin.


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