. 24/7 Space News .
CLIMATE SCIENCE
Scientists upgrade database tracking global temperatures across millennia
by Staff Writers
Los Angeles CA (SPX) Jul 12, 2017


Some changes in the Earth's climate in that 2,000-year stretch can be attributed to natural influences - such as the slow changes in the Earth's orbit which redistributed incoming solar radiation, fluctuations in solar activity and major volcanic eruptions. However, only the rise in greenhouse gas concentrations due to the burning of fossil fuels can explain the sharp rise in temperature seen since 1850 - which, as this data show, is highly anomalous in the context of the past 2,000 years.

A consortium of international scientists led by a climate expert from USC have upgraded an open-source global database tracking the Earth's temperatures since 1 A.D. that further confirms that the Earth is warming at a rate unprecedented in recent geologic history. The database by the PAGES 2k Consortium relies on proxy data such as tree rings, corals, glacier ice, marine sediment and other such data to track the Earth's temperature shifts.

Julien Emile-Geay, an associate professor for the USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences, said he and other climate scientists with the international PAGES 2k Consortium have updated the organization's original 2013 database to include more, and higher quality, records from around the world. It now has nearly 692 records, up from the original 501.

The increasing amount of data, and the quality control applied by the 98 author led to a more accurate database, Emile-Geay said.

Version 2 of the database from PAGES 2k was announced on July 11 in Scientific Data, a Nature journal. Emile-Geay was the corresponding author for the paper announcing the upgraded data.

PAGES, or Past Global Changes, was launched in 1991 as a project intended to improve scientific research and understanding of climate change by studying the past. In 2006, the PAGES 2k Network was started to compile and analyze global data for the past 2,000 years. The database involves contributions from nearly 100 scientists from 22 countries.

Scientists have found that the average global temperature on Earth has increase about 1.4 degrees Farenheit (0.8 Celsius) per year since 1880. Adding records to the PAGES 2k database improves the database's accuracy and narrows the margin of error for tracking global temperature changes, said Emile-Geay, an expert in climate modeling . The database is open source so that both scientists and citizens can study it.

"It adds weight to the idea that the current rate of warming is unprecedented in the past 2,000 years, and, together with many other sources of evidence, further indicative of a human influence on climate," Emile-Geay said. Most records in the PAGES 2k dataset are from the past 2,000 years. The scientists said records from this period provide a comprehensive, high-resolution view of a climate system that resembles today's.

Much of the published information comes from tree rings, which can indicate a warm growing season (wide rings) or a cold growing season (narrow rings). Because trees can live many years, they can provide a natural record of temperature change and long-term climate shifts.

However, in many regions, such as California's central valley, trees feel thirsty more often than they feel cold, so it is critical to obtain information from other archives. To cross-check changes inferred from tree-rings, scientists compare them to those from other proxies, such as glacier ice, speleothems (cave formations), corals, sediments from lake and ocean bottoms, and historical documents. Combined in the database, these varied data sources prove remarkably consistent, which gives scientists great confidence that they really are sensing a common climatic phenomenon: global warming.

The data records were from the scientific literature or online databanks. The authors summarized the database by charting global-scale trends, averaging the values from the individual records. Temperature summaries based on the data showed that the Earth experienced a long cooling trend up until the 19th century, with a sharp uptick starting around the time of the Industrial Revolution.

This shape was first published in 1998 by climate researchers Michael Mann of the University of Virginia, Raymond S. Bradley of the University of Massachusetts Amherst, and Malcolm Hughes of the University of Arizona. They dubbed the shape of this uptick, the "hockey stick," and it has been a lightning rod in public perceptions of global warming ever since.

Some changes in the Earth's climate in that 2,000-year stretch can be attributed to natural influences - such as the slow changes in the Earth's orbit which redistributed incoming solar radiation, fluctuations in solar activity, and major volcanic eruptions. However, only the rise in greenhouse gas concentrations due to the burning of fossil fuels can explain the sharp rise in temperature seen since 1850 - which, as this data show, is highly anomalous in the context of the past 2,000 years.

Emile-Geay said he is often asked if there is a point-of-no-return or a scientific threshold that could indicate whether it is too late to slow or reverse the Earth's warming.

"Here's how I think of it: Imagine you are a smoker, and your doctor tells you 'if you don't stop smoking now, you will soon die of a very painful lung cancer.' Should your next question be 'How many more cigarettes can I smoke before cancer is definitely untreatable?,' or 'How can you help me stop smoking tomorrow?'"

"It comes down to this: we know the human burning of fossil fuel is very rapidly warming the planet, and we know that the longer we wait, the harsher the consequences and the more costly it is to prevent them," Emile-Geay said. "What is the point of endlessly delaying action?"

Research paper

CLIMATE SCIENCE
Two significant warming intervals in southern China since 1850
Beijing, China (SPX) Jul 07, 2017
Regular meteorological observations in most of China only started in the 1950s, meaning it is therefore necessary to reconstruct regional temperature series from high-resolution temperature proxies to compensate for the deficiency. Scientists from the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, reconstructed the annual temperature anomaly i ... read more

Related Links
University of Southern California
Climate Science News - Modeling, Mitigation Adaptation


Thanks for being here;
We need your help. The SpaceDaily news network continues to grow but revenues have never been harder to maintain.

With the rise of Ad Blockers, and Facebook - our traditional revenue sources via quality network advertising continues to decline. And unlike so many other news sites, we don't have a paywall - with those annoying usernames and passwords.

Our news coverage takes time and effort to publish 365 days a year.

If you find our news sites informative and useful then please consider becoming a regular supporter or for now make a one off contribution.
SpaceDaily Contributor
$5 Billed Once


credit card or paypal
SpaceDaily Monthly Supporter
$5 Billed Monthly


paypal only


Comment using your Disqus, Facebook, Google or Twitter login.

Share this article via these popular social media networks
del.icio.usdel.icio.us DiggDigg RedditReddit GoogleGoogle

CLIMATE SCIENCE
Dutch project tests floating cities to seek more space

Creating Trends in Space: An Interview with NanoRacks CEO Jeffrey Manber

Trump offers bold space goals but fills in few details

Liftoff for Trump's bold space plans may have to wait

CLIMATE SCIENCE
After two delays, SpaceX launches broadband satellite for IntelSat

On the road to creating an electrodeless spacecraft propulsion engine

Russia to Carry Out Five Launches From Vostochny Space Center in 2018

Dragon Splashes Down to Complete Resupply Mission

CLIMATE SCIENCE
Mars surface 'more uninhabitable' than thought: study

Mars Rover Opportunity continuing science campaign at Perseverance Valley

The Niagara Falls of Mars once flowed with lava

Russian Devices for ExoMars Mission to Be Ready in Fall 2017

CLIMATE SCIENCE
Chinese satellite Zhongxing-9A enters preset orbit

Chinese Space Program: From Setback, to Manned Flights, to the Moon

Chinese Rocket Fizzles Out, Puts Other Launches on Hold

China prepares to launch second heavy-lift carrier rocket

CLIMATE SCIENCE
HTS Capacity Lease Revenues to Reach More Than $6 Billion by 2025

SES Transfers Capacity from AMC-9 Satellite Following Significant Anomaly

Second launch doubles number of Iridium NEXT satellites in orbit to 20

OneWeb inaugurates production line Assembly, Integration, and Test of OneWeb satellites

CLIMATE SCIENCE
Sorting complicated knots

Engineers find way to evaluate green roofs

Nature-inspired material uses liquid reinforcement

Feel the heat, one touch a time

CLIMATE SCIENCE
More to Life Than the Habitable Zone

Evidence discovered for two distinct giant planet populations

A cosmic barbecue: Researchers spot 60 new 'hot Jupiter' candidates

Re-making planets after star-death

CLIMATE SCIENCE
NASA spacecraft to fly over Jupiter's Great Red Spot

New Mysteries Surround New Horizons' Next Flyby Target

Mid-infrared images from the Subaru telescope extend Juno spacecraft discoveries

Earth-based Views of Jupiter to Enhance Juno Flyby









The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2024 - Space Media Network. All websites are published in Australia and are solely subject to Australian law and governed by Fair Use principals for news reporting and research purposes. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA news reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. All articles labeled "by Staff Writers" include reports supplied to Space Media Network by industry news wires, PR agencies, corporate press officers and the like. Such articles are individually curated and edited by Space Media Network staff on the basis of the report's information value to our industry and professional readership. Advertising does not imply endorsement, agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) Statement Our advertisers use various cookies and the like to deliver the best ad banner available at one time. All network advertising suppliers have GDPR policies (Legitimate Interest) that conform with EU regulations for data collection. By using our websites you consent to cookie based advertising. If you do not agree with this then you must stop using the websites from May 25, 2018. Privacy Statement. Additional information can be found here at About Us.