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NUKEWARS
Rouhani writes to Obama as Iran talks near deadline
By Siavosh Ghazi and Cecile Feuillatre
Lausanne (AFP) March 26, 2015


What an Iran nuclear deal could look like
Lausanne (AFP) March 26, 2015 - US Secretary of State John Kerry and his Iranian counterpart meet in Switzerland on Thursday for a final round of talks before a March 31 deadline to agree the outlines of an elusive nuclear deal.

This "framework" accord -- no one knows how detailed it will be -- is meant to be fleshed out into a comprehensive agreement by July 1 that severely restricts Iran's ability to obtain nuclear weapons.

Here are the possible contours of such an agreement, which Iran and the US, China, Russia, Britain, France and Germany (the P5+1) have been negotiating since late 2013.

- UN inspections -

Few details have been leaked, but it appears this final deal would see Iran reduce its nuclear activities in scale and place those that remain under ultra-tight UN inspections.

This would extend the "breakout time" that Iran in theory needs to make one bomb's worth of material -- highly "enriched" uranium or plutonium -- to at least a year from a few months at present.

The assumption is that the international community would then have enough time to detect such a move, through intense diplomatic pressure or military action.

- Centrifuges -

The P5+1 want Iran to slash the number of centrifuges -- enrichment machines -- to several thousand from the current 19,000, around half of which are in operation.

In addition, Iran would close or change the purpose of its virtually impregnable Fordo enrichment facility and send abroad some or all of the uranium already enriched.

The design of a new reactor being built at Arak would meanwhile be changed so it that far less plutonium could be extracted from its spent fuel.

Moreover Iran would limit its research and development of centrifuges able to process uranium several times faster than its current machines.

- Peaceful -

Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons and that it is enriching uranium for peaceful purposes such as nuclear power generation and medicines for cancer patients.

It says it needs to expand greatly its enrichment capacities in order to provide fuel for a future fleet of nuclear power stations.

But the P5+1 say that Iran only has one nuclear power station now, which Russia is under contract to supply until at least 2021, and that others are years if not decades away from being built.

Sending Iran's uranium stocks abroad would allow them to be turned into fuel -- a highly complex process -- by another country, most likely Russia.

- Sanctions -

If Iran agrees to dismantle nuclear facilities, in return it wants the spider's web of sanctions suffocating its economy dismantled too -- and quickly, if not immediately.

But the P5+1 is only prepared to consider suspending -- and not terminating -- sanctions, allowing them to "snap back" if Iran violates the deal.

In addition, they want to stagger the suspensions and link them to certain "milestones" by Iran over the lifetime of the deal, which is likely to be well over a decade.

Moreover, this would only apply to nuclear-related sanctions, and at least initially only unilateral US and EU sanctions imposed since 2010 that target Iran's oil exports and its banks.

Whether this would apply to UN sanctions imposed since 2006 is unclear, with France strictly opposed to any suspension but the United States seen as more amenable.

- Watchdog -

These UN sanctions are based on the UN atomic watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, being unable to vouchsafe for the exclusively peaceful nature of Iran's facilities.

Getting a clean bill of health from the IAEA depends in large part on movement in its stalled probe into allegations, mostly before 2003, that Iran's programme had "possible military dimensions".

Iran's president Thursday appealed to global leaders including Barack Obama as negotiators raced against the clock to agree the outlines of a deal that puts an Iranian nuclear bomb out of reach.

Hassan Rouhani wrote to the American president, US officials confirmed, as well as to the leaders of the five other powers heading efforts to resolve the 12-year standoff over Iran's nuclear programme.

The content of the letters was not known. But Rouhani, whose 2013 election led to the current diplomatic push, also phoned the leaders of Russia, China, Britain and France, his office said.

"We are acting in the national and international interest and we should not lose this exceptional opportunity," Hassan Rouhani told British Prime Minister David Cameron by phone, the presidency said.

"Hope was expressed for success at the new round of talks in Lausanne," the Kremlin said after Rouhani spoke with President Vladimir Putin, while noting with "satisfaction the progress" made.

Francois Hollande, "insisting on Iran's legitimate right to use peaceful nuclear power, insisted on the need to work towards a lasting, robust and verifiable agreement," the French presidency said.

- Iran wants all sanctions lifted -

Highlighting the difficulties of talks that resumed in Switzerland Thursday between US Secretary of State John Kerry and his Iranian counterpart, Rouhani also said Iran wants all sanctions lifted.

"The peaceful character of (Iran's) nuclear activities and the necessity to annul all the unjust sanctions can lead us to a final deal," Rouhani's office quoted him as telling Cameron.

The six powers negotiating with Iran -- the United States, China, Russia, Britain, France and Germany -- are however insisting that sanctions will only be suspended, not lifted, to enable them to be quickly put back in place if Tehran violates the deal.

Cameron "emphasised the importance of Iran showing flexibility on the outstanding issues in order for a deal to be reached," Downing Street said afterwards.

Kerry's talks in Lausanne with Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and officials from the powers are aimed at agreeing the outlines of a nuclear deal by March 31 after two missed deadlines in 2014.

The two men met for more than four hours on Thursday, and their political directors resumed talks later in the evening.

"It's going well, we're working, we're meeting," Kerry said, pursued by reporters as he walked late Thursday through the streets of Lausanne.

A comprehensive deal, meant to be finalised by June 30, would see Iran downsize its nuclear programme to ensure that any covert dash for an atomic weapon would be all but impossible.

Kerry is under severe pressure from the US Congress to return from Lausanne with something concrete but it is unclear how detailed any "framework" accord will be, or even whether it will be a written document.

Both Iran and France, whose hawkish Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius plans to join the talks on Saturday, have criticised the two-step process, with France's US ambassador calling it a "bad tactic".

- Path forward -

"We very much believe that we can get this done by (March) 31," a senior State Department official said however.

"We can see a path forward here to get to an agreement, we can see what that path might look like," the official told reporters, cautioning however that this "doesn't mean we'll get there".

Iran's nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi told AFP in an interview in Lausanne that he was "on the whole optimistic" about the talks.

But he warned "there are those who have an interest in more troubles and not dealing with this question have not been inactive. They are trying to make sure there is no deal."

There were concerns however that a crisis in Yemen, where Saudi Arabia Wednesday launched air strikes against Shiite rebels who have seized control of the capital, could sour the atmosphere in Lausanne.

A State Department spokesman, Jeff Rathke, confirmed: "Secretary Kerry did briefly raise Yemen with his Iranian counterpart. But let me stress, this was not and is not the focus of the talks."

And another US official insisted the air strikes would have "no impact" on the nuclear talks.


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