At present, the forces aligned against his push for independence are formidable: mainland China, with an array of powerful missiles aimed at the island to back up its position; the United States, with its economic and political interests tightly intertwined with China's and no desire to deploy its over-stretched military to the Taiwan Straits; and the opposition political forces within the island, with their ability to disrupt and delay Chen's political agenda.

It is not a strong position for a man who views himself as the liberator of a nation. Instead, it looks like a formula for the prolonged maintenance of the uneasy status quo - despite the fact that both logic and the moral high ground are with Chen.

Logically, he holds that Taiwan already enjoys de facto independence from the People's Republic of China - hard to dispute, given that the Communist government in Beijing has never exercised authority over the island since it came to power in 1949, and that Taiwan's political, economic and social institutions function independently from - not to mention more efficiently and effectively than - those on the mainland.

Morally, Chen seeks nothing other than a free, independent and democratic nation for his people - exactly what the United States and its coalition partners have been fighting to establish in Afghanistan and Iraq. Pro-independence supporters in Taiwan listen with great cynicism to the United States mouthing support for freedom and democracy in those two countries, yet warning them not to aspire to the same thing, even though they already have a stable, functioning democratic system in place.

Unfortunately, the United States cannot take any other position in the face of Beijing's iron determination to regain Taiwan. China has become too important a player on the world stage.

The onus therefore is on China to seek a solution to the current impasse across the Taiwan Straits. A military solution would establish China as the neighborhood bully, for despite their outward adherence to the one China policy, all the countries in the region know their history, and Taiwan enjoys much tacit sympathy from them.

An attack on Taiwan would alarm Japan, South Korea, and all of the ASEAN countries with whom China has been carefully building up economic and political relations. It would cause foreign investors to flee and trading partners to renege on deals. Not to mention putting the United States in an impossible position, bound as it is by law to defend Taiwan.

China is therefore unlikely to take that option in 2005. The aggressive rhetoric may continue however, as a reminder to Taiwan and the world of where Beijing's bottom line lies.

If the military option is unwise and the status quo impossible, given Taiwan's gradual drift away from China, Beijing needs to seriously consider alternative strategies. Its traditional approach - seeking to ally with Chen's political enemies to undermine him - could backfire by strengthening anti-China sentiment on the island.

A more prudent approach would be for Beijing to initiate dialogue with Taipei, to create a channel to defuse current tensions and to begin creating a framework for a permanent cross-straits peace. Such an initiative would earn China considerable international respect.

At the same time, Beijing's leaders must clean their own house by gradually introducing democratic reforms, establishing the rule of law, and guaranteeing the rights and freedoms for all Chinese that the Taiwanese already enjoy. Only after such changes have taken place on the mainland would the Taiwanese willingly consider reunification with the mainland.

Chinese President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao are taking steps in this direction, as evidenced by their people first principle, an attempt to respond to the seething social pressures emanating from uneven economic development, rampant official corruption and widespread rural unemployment.

There also appears to be a serious effort to build a legal framework for governance and to instill respect for the law. There is a long way to go on this; China's authoritarian leadership style is firmly entrenched at almost all levels of government, and the Communist Party continues to stand above the government and above the law.

At present, rather than working on a framework for cooperation, both Beijing and Taipei are seeking to legalize their separate positions. Chen's new constitution for Taiwan is to be ready by 2006. And Beijing has drafted an anti-secession law that would give it a legal basis for military action against Taiwan should the island opt for a declaration of independence.

Beijing's best option is to open lines of communication with Taipei. The main obstacle is an outdated and rigid authoritarian mentality, which is proving unworkable in so many sectors of modern China. Unless leaders on both sides of the straits show greater flexibility in devising a win-win strategy, the momentum toward conflict between them could lead to huge losses for both.

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