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Perfect storm of factors behind Indonesian quake-tsunami
By Moses Ompusunggu, with Sam Reeves in Kuala Lumpur
Jakarta (AFP) Oct 1, 2018

The Indonesia quake-tsunami disaster in numbers
Jakarta (AFP) Oct 2, 2018 - The Indonesian government and international relief agencies are still struggling to come to terms with the devastation wrought by the earthquake and tsunami, but here are the latest figures that hint at the scale of crisis:

- The dead, the wounded -

The true toll may never be known, but so far the Indonesian authorities have counted 1,234 dead from the double disaster. That toll is expected to rise as they reach outlying areas.

Among the survivors an estimated 61,867 have been displaced. Many have fled to one of the two dozen evacuation sites dotted around Palu and the region. The race is on to get them food and other essential supplies.

But the scale of the problem may be much bigger than that. The United Nations' disaster relief agency estimates up to 191,000 people are in urgent need of assistance. More than 934 communities may be affected.

Beyond the immediate need, the road to recovery will be long. More than 600 schools and tens of thousands of homes will have to be patched up or rebuilt.

- Security forces -

Indonesia's military has taken the lead in the recovery effort, flying in supplies and evacuating survivors on C130 Hercules transport planes. Among those evacuated are 122 foreigners, including 30 from Thailand and 20 from Germany.

In total the government has deployed 3,169 military personnel as well as 2,033 police officers.

Increasingly they are being called on to keep the peace, with looting leading to at least 45 arrests.

- Shortfall -

The military will now be assisted in the relief effort by international organisations and at least 26 countries who have offered everything from sarongs to geospatial mapping services.

According to the United Nations' estimates responders will need to supply 571,000 litres of water a day -- or enough to fill an Olympic-sized swimming pool every four days -- and 659,000 square metres of shelter, around one and a half times the size of Beijing's Tiananmen Square or seven times the size of Paris' Place de la Concorde.

They will also have to provide the region with around 401 million calories a day, or the equivalent of around 1.8 million Big Macs.

Inadequate warning systems, a lack of education about what to do when the quake hit and a narrow bay that channelled the tsunami's destructive force -- a perfect storm of factors spawned the deadly disaster in Indonesia.

The massive 7.5-magnitude tremor struck Friday and sent monster waves barrelling into the island of Sulawesi, leaving at least 844 dead in the seaside city of Palu and surrounding areas.

As victims were buried in a mass grave and rescue teams struggled to reach remote areas, questions mounted about what exactly happened and if more could have been done to save lives.

The tragedy has highlighted what critics say is a patchy early-warning system to detect tsunamis in the seismically-active Southeast Asian archipelago.

"There was no information about a tsunami recorded by the tide-monitoring station in Palu because it was not working," Widjo Kongko, a tsunami expert with the Indonesian government's technology agency, told AFP.

The station keeps a check on changes in tides and should have detected if destructive waves were headed for the city.

After the initial quake, Indonesia's geophysics agency -- which monitors seismic activity -- did issue a tsunami warning but lifted it soon afterwards.

It was only later that images emerged of a surging wall of water charging into the coast, flattening buildings and overturning cars.

Tide-monitoring stations and data-modelling are the main tools in Indonesia for predicting if a quake has generated a tsunami.

- Beset by problems -

But even if all the country's stations are working, experts say the network is limited and in any case gives people little time to flee as they only detect waves once they are close to shore.

Efforts to improve systems have been beset by problems, from a failure to properly maintain new equipment to bureaucratic bickering.

After a quake-tsunami in 2004 off Sumatra island killed 220,000 across the region, with most victims in Indonesia, 22 early-warning buoys were deployed around the country to detect tsunamis.

But officials have admitted that they are no longer working after being vandalised and due to a lack of funds for maintenance.

In another case, a major project with funding from the US National Science Foundation to deploy high-tech tsunami sensors in a quake-prone part of western Indonesia has been delayed.

Louise Comfort, a natural disaster expert from the University of Pittsburgh who has led the American side of the initiative, said that it had been put on hold after disagreement between government agencies and a delay in getting financing.

"It's so disheartening and it's so sad because we've got the technology, we've got the knowledge, we know we can do it," she told AFP.

- Education over technology -

However, others called for a stronger focus on simply teaching people to head to higher ground when a quake hits, rather than on expensive technology which many communities in a developing country like Indonesia cannot afford.

"For a place like Indonesia to try and defend its coastline, education is almost certainly going to outpace technology for the foreseeable future," said Adam Switzer, a tsunami expert from Nanyang Technological University's Earth Observatory of Singapore.

"Every kid in Indonesia needs to be taught what to do if they are on the coast and there is an earthquake."

Observers stressed the Indonesian quake was highly complex, and it would not have been easy to predict it would send a tsunami barrelling towards the small community of Palu.

The initial tremor was a sideways movement of tectonic plates, rather than the sort of violent upward thrust that would typically generate destructive waves, and was followed by scores of aftershocks.

Experts believe that the tsunami could have been triggered by an underwater landslide that followed the tremor.

Palu's unique geography will not have helped, they said -- the tsunami likely intensified as it raced down the narrow bay on which the city sits.

"Geographical factors (the narrow bay, shallow water) seemed to have played major roles," said Taro Arikawa, a professor at Chuo University in Tokyo.

"The tsunami must have come very fast and suddenly."

burs-sr/qan


Related Links
Bringing Order To A World Of Disasters
When the Earth Quakes
A world of storm and tempest


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SHAKE AND BLOW
Global warming hikes risk of landslide tsunamis: study
Paris (AFP) Sept 6, 2018
With a wave runup of nearly 200 metres, the tsunami that ripped through an Alaskan fjord in 2015 was one of the largest ever documented. But with no-one killed, it almost went unnoticed. It was triggered by a massive rockfall caused by melting of the Tyndall Glacier, which experts say has given them the clearest picture to date of landslide-generated tsunamis. With global warming causing glaciers to shrink at an unprecedented rate, there is an increased risk of tidal waves triggered by the colla ... read more

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