The two assessments contradict optimistic predictions about the prospects for success of Washington's military "surge" in Iraq. These comments suggest that even if the surge is successful in a narrow military sense, there is no evidence it will translate into a decisive, beneficial impact on Iraq's political outcome.

Gates' grim analysis comes amid a rapidly disintegrating political situation in Baghdad. The Iraqi Accordance Front, the biggest Sunni political bloc, recently announced the withdrawal of its six Cabinet members because Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki failed to meet its demands. Those defections brought to 12 the number of vacancies in Iraq's 39-member Cabinet. And just this week five more ministers -- from the group led by Iyad Allawi -- decided to withdraw from future Cabinet meetings, though they will continue to run their ministries.

Not only have these moves seriously undermined reconciliation, but they are bringing the Iraqi government dangerously close to collapse.

Under the rubric of pacification, the military and the media typically focus on the violence swirling around Baghdad and in Anbar province. But according to a report from the non-profit International Crisis Group, highlighted in this week's Washington Post, British-administered Basra, previously touted as a success, is in disrepair.

"Basra illustrates the pitfalls of a transitional process that has led to collapse of the state apparatus and failed to build legitimate institutions," reads the report. "Iraq has become a failed state -- a country whose institutions and, with them, any semblance of national cohesion, have been obliterated."

While the United States can give Iraqis military equipment and training, it cannot provide Iraq adequate military or political leadership. In fact, despite the infusion of 30,000 more American troops, which according to President Bush was meant to provide the "breathing space" necessary for political negotiations, the feckless Iraqi Parliament has just adjourned on a monthlong summer recess.

While adjourned, Iraqi lawmakers will probably achieve just as much as they did while Parliament was in session -- which is very little. Iraq's Parliament has repeatedly failed to meet two key political benchmarks: the equitable distribution of oil revenues and the inclusion of Sunnis into the government. The Cabinet did approve a plan to proportionally allocate petroleum revenue among the Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds, but Sunnis have already rejected the draft legislation.

Memories of Sunni domination are fresh enough to undermine true national reconciliation with Shiites. As long as Shiites remain committed to preserving their hold on power, it is unlikely they will succeed in bringing Sunnis into a proper national unity government.

To make matters worse, the Iraqi Security Forces -- the pillar that supposedly will provide security in a united Iraq -- is composed mostly of Shiites and Shiite militias.

Because the security forces have been compromised by rampant sectarianism, minority Sunnis have grown fearful of the government in Baghdad, considering it to be merely another vehicle of Shiite domination. Indeed, a good many Sunnis openly say that they trust no one in uniform.

Troubling questions also linger about control of Kirkuk, an oil-rich territory in northern Iraq. To the chagrin of neighboring Turkey as well as Iraq's Arab population, a promised referendum on the status of the city is likely to lead to permanent control by the Kurdish regional government.

From backbiting Cabinet members to a deadlocked and nearly comatose Parliament to the government's inability to monopolize the legitimate use of force, Iraq is suffering from a pervasive political dysfunction that the surge cannot solve.

Iraq requires a political solution, but there seems little prospect of that.

The efficacy of the U.S. military option has largely run its course. Even if the surge enjoys a modest amount of tactical success, Iraq's underlying political rot will persist. So the critical question is, "How patient are we?" How long is America willing to wait for Iraqis to forgive past grievances? It's clear that the country's pre-existing social fractures will not be healed by Gen. David Petraeus, President Bush, or even the U.S. military. If that's the case, it leaves Washington's goal of a stable, united, peaceful, democratic Iraq as remote as ever.

Iraq Press Roundup
New York (UPI) Aug. 9, 2007 Iraq's Al Gad in a headline said: "More than 1,000 Iraqis call for the cancellation of an unfair decision against Iraqi women."

A new government decision prevents women from getting passports without the approval of a male member of their household.

The paper said the signatories of the petition called the move "a continuous tyranny ... much worse than their situation under the dictatorship. The decision steals a woman's dignity."

The paper also said the decision contradicts the new Iraqi Constitution's Article 14, which says, "Iraqis are equal before the law without any discrimination bases on race, sex, color, religion, opinion, economic or social situation."

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The Alrafidayn newspaper quoted the head of U.S. Army operations in Diyala province as saying Wednesday that military operations in the region were to "clean the province of armed factions." The Iraqi operation leader announced the killing and arrest of 15 insurgents.

Alrafidayn said Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, whose trip to Iran ended Thursday, announced "Iran is supporting his security policies in Iraq" despite U.S accusations that Iran is helping armed groups in Iraq.

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Al Sabah said Thursday security personnel forbade people visiting the Shrine of Imam Kadhum from carrying guns, cell phones or purses.

The paper said Baghdad was expecting millions of Iraqis to visit the shrine in the western part of Baghdad. Iraqi Brig. Gen. Qassim Ataa was quoted as saying: "Baghdad operation leadership has set up a security plan in cooperation with the civil committees in Khadhmiay district and areas around it." Steps have also been taken to monitor food and drink given to the pilgrims.

Al Sabah also reported that technical and engineering staff, in cooperation with security forces, were preparing to reconstruct the city of Samara after ridding it of insurgents. The governor of Salah Ad Din province told Al Sabah, "A good coordination between the Iraqi police and army resulted in arresting many Iraqi and Arab insurgents."

(Malou Innocent is a defense and foreign policy researcher in Washington.)

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)

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