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IMF sees modest growth from MENA oil states
by Daniel J. Graeber
Washington (UPI) Apr 9, 2013


More oil coming from non-OPEC members
Washington (UPI) Apr 9, 2013 - Most of the growth in petroleum and other liquid fuel supplies comes from countries outside of OPEC, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said.

EIA said it projects petroleum and other liquids supply to increase by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2014 and 1.3 million bpd in 2015, with most of the growth coming from North America.

In its short-term market report for April, EIA said it expects production from members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to fall by 200,000 bpd in 2014 and in 2015, in part because of rising production elsewhere.

EIA's report, released Tuesday, didn't take into account a Libyan deal that opened export terminals blocked by rebel leaders in the east of the country.

For North America, EIA said it expects strong crude oil production from the Bakken oil formation in the Northern Plains states and the Permian basin in southern states. Total U.S. oil production should reach 8.4 million bpd this year and 9.1 million bpd in 2015.

The highest historical average for U.S. oil production was 9.6 million bpd in 1970.

EIA said global oil consumption averaged 90.4 million bpd last year and should grow by 1.2 million bpd in 2014 and another 1.4 million bpd in 2015.

The International Monetary Fund said Wednesday it expects tepid economic growth from oil-producing nations in the Middle East and North African regions.

IMF said economic growth in the region was slow because of declines in oil production and weak private investments. Political transition in countries like Libya, meanwhile, led to a lack of economic confidence.

"Economic activity will strengthen in 2014–15 as export growth improves in line with trading partners' recoveries and public and private investment accelerates," it said in its world economic report.

IMF said a general decline in oil demand, coupled with fewer imports from the United States, meant countries that would otherwise depend on energy reserves are in decline.

As oil output stabilizes as the global economy gains traction, IMF said it expected regional gross domestic product should rise to about 3.5 percent 2014, compared with 2 percent last year.

"However, weak confidence, high unemployment, low competitiveness, and in many cases, large public deficits will continue to weigh on economic prospects in the region," the report said.

IMF's assessment didn't include recent events in Libya, where the central government brokered a deal to open eastern oil terminals closed previously by rebel leaders seeking more autonomy for a region known as Cyrenaica.

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