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Europe, Iran to back nuclear deal as Trump decision looms
By Damon WAKE
Brussels (AFP) Jan 11, 2018


Fate of Iran deal again in Trump's hands
Washington (AFP) Jan 11, 2018 - Another deadline is looming and the world is again wondering: Will President Donald Trump tear up the deal Iran signed with world powers to curtail its nuclear program?

What is at stake and why is the issue back in the headlines?

- Deadline day -

On Friday, Trump is expected to announce that he continues to regard remaining in the Iran nuclear deal not to be in the interests of the United States.

He first announced this in October last year and under the US Iran Nuclear Agreement Act (INARA) of 2015 he is supposed to inform Congress every 90 days.

After he has made his decision -- or leaves his previous decision in place -- Congress may decide to re-impose some sanctions and modify INARA to end the 90-day cycle.

- Sanctions -

Does this mean new nuclear sanctions are imminent? Not necessarily.

The sanctions imposed on Iran to punish it for pursuing nuclear weapons were never lifted by the US Congress.

Instead, former president Barack Obama and so far Trump have temporarily cancelled them with a waiver in order to meet the US side of the bargain.

Starting this weekend and over the next week, the waivers on the most important packages of sanctions targeting Iran's oil and financial industries come up for renewal.

If Trump does not act to renew them, the sanctions "snap back" and Iranian businesses and foreign banks and traders who deal with them will once again be sanctioned.

- Trump's plans -

Trump has made it clear that he is no fan of the Iran deal, and he has complained bitterly in the past when obliged to renew waivers on the sanctions packages.

But his most senior advisors, including Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, are said to be urging him to once again renew the waivers.

Washington's European allies, including deal signatories Britain, France and Germany are also desperately lobbying Trump to keep faith with the agreement.

On Wednesday, senior officials told AFP they "expect" Trump will grudgingly renew the waivers, but no-one in Washington is certain what the mercurial president will say.

Trump is also expected, however, to impose new sanctions on Iran targeting human right abuses and support for foreign extremist groups rather than nuclear back-sliding.

- Future of deal? -

Would new sanctions or a return to old sanctions kill the deal and leave Iran free to resume a full, unmonitored nuclear drive?

Not necessarily. European powers, Russia and China have economic investments in Iran and have said they would remain in the deal if Iran does.

Iran may therefore continue to respect its side of the bargain and limit its nuclear activity to sites and practices that UN watchdog the IAEA deems consistent with the accord.

European banks and businesses would not, however, relish a return of US secondary sanctions excluding them from American markets if the deal with Iran.

This will allow Tehran to further drive a wedge between Washington and its traditional allies.

Europe and Iran are to put on a united front in support of the landmark 2015 nuclear deal at talks in Brussels Thursday as Washington mulls reimposing sanctions on Tehran.

The European Union and the foreign ministers of Britain, Germany and France will unite to defend the accord, which curbed Iran's nuclear ambitions in return for the relaxing of punishing sanctions but which US President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticised and threatened to leave.

While EU diplomatic chief Federica Mogherini wants to keep the nuclear issue separate from other contentious issues with Tehran, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif will also face tough questions about recent anti-government protests which left 21 people dead.

Trump, who in October refused to certify Iran was complying with the deal but stopped short of withdrawing from it, is expected to decide on Friday whether to extend waivers on nuclear-related sanctions against Tehran.

The EU and other world powers have repeatedly warned it would be a mistake to abandon the deal, thrashed out with Iran over 12 years by the US, Britain, France, China, Germany and Russia.

British foreign minister Boris Johnson called the deal "a crucial agreement that makes the world safer".

"It is vital that we continue to work with our European partners to preserve the Iran deal, and with it the security and prosperity it is bringing to the people of Iran and the world," he said.

- Iran warning -

According to two US sources, Trump had not made a decision by Wednesday, while Johnson told the British parliament on Tuesday that London was urging "our friends in the White House not to throw it away".

Iran, which on Monday warned the world to get ready for Washington abandoning the deal, has said if the US walks away from the agreement it is ready to give an "appropriate and heavy response".

Zarif, who travelled to Moscow on Wednesday to seek Russian support, criticised what he called Washington's "destructive policy".

"The United States must understand the unity of the international community over the nuclear deal and change their position as a result," Zarif said, urging world powers to "resist the hostile actions" of the Trump administration.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has repeatedly said Iran is keeping up its side of the agreement, most recently in November.

after talks in Moscow on Wednesday Zarif tweeted a warning.

"Everyone agrees it is imperative that ALL live up to their obligations under JCPOA. IAEA has verified Iran's full compliance, but continuation will depend on full US compliance," he wrote. JCPOA is the official name for the deal.

- Punishing Tehran -

Mogherini, who played an important role in crafting the nuclear accord, has vowed to preserve the deal and has lobbied US lawmakers in Washington.

US Congress is working on a way to punish Iran for its continuing ballistic missile programme and meddling in Middle East conflicts such as Yemen and Syria.

Johnson said these issues would be "an important part of our conversation" in Brussels on Thursday -- along with the recent unrest in Iran.

"I will be making it clear to Foreign Minister Zarif, on the subject of the recent protests in Iran, that the right to peaceful demonstration within the law is central to any truly thriving society," Johnson said.

The 28-member EU has condemned the "unacceptable loss of human lives" in the protests and stressed that peaceful protest and freedom of expression are "fundamental rights".

burs-pdw/arp/hmw/klm

NUKEWARS
Missile attack 'proves' Iran backing Yemen rebels: Saudi-led coalition
Riyadh (AFP) Jan 5, 2018
A Saudi-led coalition fighting rebels in Yemen said a ballistic missile intercepted over southern Saudi Arabia on Friday served as proof Iran supported the Shiite Huthi rebels. "This hostile act by the Iran-backed Huthis proves the Iranian regime remains implicated in supporting the armed Huthis," the kingdom's state news agency SPA quoted coalition spokesman Turki al-Maliki as saying. ... read more

Related Links
Learn about nuclear weapons doctrine and defense at SpaceWar.com
Learn about missile defense at SpaceWar.com
All about missiles at SpaceWar.com
Learn about the Superpowers of the 21st Century at SpaceWar.com


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