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NUKEWARS
Could skeletons in Iran's closet trip up nuclear deal?
By Simon STURDEE
Vienna (AFP) April 15, 2015


Iran vows 'irreversible steps' on nuclear programme if matched by West
Madrid (AFP) April 14, 2015 - Iran will resume talks with world powers on a final nuclear agreement on April 21 and is ready to take "irreversible steps" if the West does the same, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said Tuesday in Spain.

"My team, the assistant to (EU foreign policy chief Federica) Mogherini and the other representatives of the 5+1 (global powers) will meet next Tuesday to begin drafting the text," he told a conference in Madrid.

He did not say where the talks would take place but later gave more details about his country's position.

"This is the framework under which we will operate with the 5+1 group: (there will be) irreversible steps on the Iranian side as long as their side takes irreversible steps. It is a very balanced approach," said Zarif, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator.

He was referring to the so-called P5+1 powers -- Britain, China, France, Russia, the United States and Germany -- who have been negotiating with Iran to end the 12-year standoff over its nuclear programme.

The six countries made a major breakthrough at talks with Iran on April 2 by agreeing on the parameters for a final deal to scale back its nuclear capabilities.

But the negotiators still have a series of technical issues to resolve by a June 30 deadline for a final deal, including the steps for lifting sanctions imposed on Iran.

"Iran will take all the measures that are required in the initial phase, all the measures," Zarif added during a joint news conference with his Spanish counterpart Jose Manuel Garcia-Margallo.

"If we are going to reduce the number of centrifuges we will do that in the first days, we are also called to redesign the Arak reactors into another hardwater reactor, we will do that in the initial steps," he added.

Western powers want Iran to re-design a planned research reactor at Arak to cut its potential output of plutonium, one of the materials needed to produce a nuclear bomb.

Oil-rich Iran denies Western claims that it is seeking to make a nuclear bomb.

- 'Congress is their problem' -

Iran's Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who will have the final say on any deal, has cast doubt over the accord, saying that "nothing is binding".

President Hassan Rouhani has demanded that sanctions be lifted as soon as any deal is signed.

Zarif said that all the elements "required for the lifting of sanctions will take place in the first phase."

The P5+1 have said sanctions will only be gradually eased and want a mechanism to ensure they can be swiftly reimposed if Iran breaks its word.

US Secretary of State John Kerry has come under fire at home for pushing the deal, with many US lawmakers still wary of Iran, a long-time US foe, which has not had full diplomatic relations with Washington for 35 years.

Republican Senator Bob Corker, who has co-sponsored a bill that would give Congress the power to review any final deal, said Monday he might be garnering enough support to overcome any veto by President Barack Obama.

Zarif said he expected Washington to lift the sanctions.

"On the American side, we behold the government of the United States to be responsable," he said, adding that obtaining approval from Congress was "their problem".

"As far as we are concerned, they have to terminate the implementation of those sanctions and that is their legal obligation," he said.

Spain currently chairs the United Nations Sanctions Committee.

"We will try to reach a consensus so the sanctions disappear as Iran adopts the measures it has committed itself to do," said Garcia-Margallo.

Possible skeletons in Iran's closet -- the subject of talks in Tehran on Wednesday -- could yet spook the historic Iran nuclear deal, experts say.

The UN nuclear watchdog conducts regular inspections of Iran's nuclear facilities and these will be increased if world powers and Iran can finalise their outline agreement by a June 30 deadline.

Such a deal will see Iran dramatically scale down its atomic activities. Combined with tighter UN inspections, this will make any dash to make nuclear weapons extremely difficult and easily detectable.

Talks on this could resume as early as next week.

However, the International Atomic Energy Agency also wants Iran to answer allegations that prior to 2003, and possibly since, Iran's nuclear programme had "possible military dimensions" -- "PMD" for short.

This means alleged research by Iran into how to make a nuclear bomb such as high-explosives tests and looking into how to explode fissile material in a missile's warhead.

An IAEA probe into this has been stalled since August. On Wednesday though, the IAEA's chief inspector Tero Varjoranta was due to hold a new round of talks in Tehran.

- Having a laugh? -

The allegations are based largely on information passed to the IAEA by unnamed other countries -- experts say Israel and the US are the likely sources -- and deemed by the watchdog to be "overall, credible" in a major 2011 report.

Some of the accusations could well be bogus, experts say.

Robert Kelley, a former US nuclear weapons scientist who later worked in atomic intelligence analysis for the US government and for the IAEA in Iraq, says some are "laughable".

Claims of explosives testing and a subsequent "sanitisation" at the Parchin military base, as well as over Iran's use of certain detonators and activities in the Marivan region, make little sense, said Kelley, who is now at the SIPRI peace research institute.

It is also unclear how much comes from a controversial trove of more than a thousand pages of documents known as the "alleged studies" that reportedly come from a laptop acquired by US intelligence in 2004.

Yousaf Butt, a nuclear physicist at the British-American Security Information Council, said that the West should not be "obsessing" over the past, particularly since some of the evidence seems "shoddy".

But analysts, including Kelley, say that Iran still has a case to answer.

"Although some of the individual evidence is questionable, there is no doubt in my mind that Iran pursued nuclear weaponisation work," Mark Fitzpatrick, a former US State Department official now at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, told AFP.

- Off the hook? -

The six world powers agree that Iran cannot continue stonewalling, not least because clearing up what happened in the past is vital for having confidence that Iran will stick to its commitments in the future.

"In a final deal Iran will not be let off the hook for its past work," Kelsey Davenport at the Arms Control Association told AFP. "It is vital for the IAEA's credibility."

Western officials have made clear that Iran's main aim in the hoped-for deal with major powers -- getting painful sanctions lifted -- will not happen until the IAEA's questions are addressed.

"PMD (possible military dimensions)... is part of the package. It is necessary to get sanctions relief," a European official involved in talks said.

All UN Security Council nuclear-related resolutions will be lifted "simultaneous" with the completion of "actions addressing all key issues" -- including PMD, according to a US State Department fact sheet.

The same document -- disputed by Iran as a mixture of "truth and lies" -- says that Iran will be "required to grant access to... suspicious sites".

State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf said Friday that it would be "very difficult to imagine [a final deal] that did not require... access at Parchin."

- Fessing up -

Iran though rejects the IAEA's claims, saying they are based on forgeries supplied to a gullible and partial watchdog by its enemies. Parchin, it says, is not a nuclear site so the IAEA has no right to go there.

Even if some of the claims are true, it would be very difficult for Iran to make any kind of confession, not least because this would mean the country had violated the supreme leader's "fatwa" forbidding nuclear weapons.

A possible solution, therefore, might be to have a "fudged" admission, Fitzpatrick said, with Tehran saying the dirty work happened before the fatwa and putting the blame on "rogue" scientists.

Without this, or if Western nations make "politically impossible demands for acknowledging culpability", PMD is "one of the ways" the whole deal could yet fall apart, he said.


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NUKEWARS
Don't interfere with Iran talks, Kerry urges Congress
Washington (AFP) April 12, 2015
Secretary of State John Kerry will this week defend an emerging deal intended to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions, urging skeptical US lawmakers not to put up obstacles that could scupper the tough negotiations. "I'll lay out the facts," Kerry told CBS's "Face the Nation" on Sunday when asked about a different narrative emerging from Iranian leaders about the outlines of a deal agreed in Lausan ... read more


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