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CLIMATE SCIENCE
Climate science: Bad news gets worse
by Staff Writers
Paris (AFP) June 1, 2017


Climate: The Paris Agreement at a glance
Paris (AFP) June 1, 2017 - The 2015 Paris Agreement, which the United States will quit according to President Donald Trump's announcement on Thursday, is the first pact to commit all nations to limiting global warming caused by emissions from burning coal, oil and gas.

Key facts about the pact:

- The climate club -

A total of 196 nations, including the Palestinian authorities, have endorsed the agreement and 147 have officially ratified it.

The accord entered into force in record time on November 4, 2016, when it crossed the threshold of 55 ratifying parties representing 55 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions.

China, the world's number one greenhouse gas polluter and Europe, number three after the US in second place, recommitted to the Paris Agreement Thursday.

The biggest polluter not to have ratified the deal is Russia (number five after India).

- Rules of engagement -

The agreement makes provision for parties to quit, but notice can be given only three years after its entry into force.

Withdrawal would take effect a year after that. But on Thursday, Trump said the US would "cease all implementation" of the accord "as of today."

A country can also withdraw from the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) under whose auspices the deal was negotiated. Withdrawal would take effect a year after notification, which can be given at any moment.

- The goal -

Nations agreed to hold global warming to "well below" two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) over pre-Industrial Revolution levels, and to strive for a lower limit of 1.5 degrees.

Experts say even the two-degree ceiling is a tall order, requiring an immediate and deep reduction in planet-warming emissions from fossil fuels -- an industry with major influence in Washington.

Signatories to the deal will aim for emissions to peak "as soon as possible". The UN's climate science panel recommends a 40-70-percent cut by 2050 from 2010 levels.

Based on voluntary pledges by countries so far, the planet is on track for warming of about three degrees, many scientists say -- a recipe for catastrophic floods, storms, drought and sea-level rise.

- Tracking progress -

In 2018, and every five years thereafter, countries will take stock of the overall impact of their efforts to rein in global warming.

Some nations, including the United States, set emissions-curbing targets for 2025, others for 2030. Both categories must be updated every five years starting 2020.

- Financing -

Rich countries are expected to provide funding to help developing countries make the costly shift to cleaner energy sources and to shore up defences against the impacts of climate change.

They have committed $100 billion (89 billion euros) per year by 2020.

But Trump on Thursday said that the United States, which pledged $3 billion towards the Green Climate Fund of which it delivered $1 billion under Obama, would not implement financial commitments or national emissions-curbing measures pledged under the pact.

President Donald Trump has announced that America will pull out of the 2015 Paris climate agreement, but scientists say the peril from global warming has never been greater.

Earth's average global temperature is scaling new heights, sea ice is retreating, extreme weather events have become more frequent and species are increasingly under threat, they say.

A summary of the evidence:

- 1.1 degrees -

In 2016, Earth's average surface temperature hit a record level for the third consecutive year since records began in 1880.

The global average temperature was about 1.1 degree Celsius (1.98 Fahrenheit) higher than the pre-industrial era. This is when mankind's mass burning of coal, and later oil and gas, started hiking levels of heat-trapping carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

The 21st century has already seen 16 of the 17 hottest years on record.

Some of the world's biggest cities may be as much as eight degrees Celsius (14.4 degrees Fahrenheit) hotter by 2100, said a recent study.

- Melting ice -

Arctic summer sea ice shrank to 4.14 million square kilometres (1.6 million square miles) in 2016 -- the second-lowest after 2012, when it reached 3.39 million km2.

The Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in summer as early as 2030.

In parts of Arctic Russia, temperatures were 6 C to 7 C higher than the long-term average.

On the other extreme of the world, Antarctica, sea ice last year hit its lowest extent ever recorded by satellites.

High-altitude glaciers, meanwhile, declined in surface area in 2015 for the 36th year in a row.

- 400 parts per million -

The atmospheric concentrations of the three most potent greenhouse gases -- carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) -- all hit new highs in 2016.

For the first time on record, in 2015, the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere averaged 400 parts per million (ppm).

Most climate scientists agree that greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere must be capped at 450 ppm of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) for a fighting chance to limit average global warming to two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) over pre-industrial levels.

This is the cap enshrined in the Paris Agreement.

Fossil fuel-generated greenhouse gas emissions are thought to have remained stable in 2016 for the third consecutive year, even as the global economy grew. But to stay on target for 2 C, they need to decline.

Meanwhile, scientists are also worried about a rise in levels of methane, which has a far more potent warming effect than CO2.

The rise is so far unexplained. But one feared source is melting Arctic permafrost, which could eventually release billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide.

- 70 millimetres -

Sea level rise, caused when ice melts and warmer water expands, appears to be accelerating, according to the latest data.

The average ocean level was 70 millimetres (2.75 inches) higher in 2015 than in 1993, having risen as much as 30 percent faster in the 10 years to 2015 than in the previous decade.

The pace is likely to pick up further as ice sheets and glaciers shed mass, threatening the homes and livelihoods of tens of millions of people in low-lying areas around the world.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said in January the global average sea level could be between 0.3 and 2.5 metres (one foot to 8.2 feet) higher by 2100.

On current trends, meltwater just from the Antarctic ice sheet could contribute to a metre of lift, according to one study.

- Extreme events -

The WMO says there are demonstrable links between man-made climate change and some extreme events, especially heatwaves.

The number of climate-related extreme events -- droughts, forest fires, floods, major storm surges -- has doubled since 1990, research has shown.

The intensity of typhoons battering China, Taiwan, Japan and the Korean Peninsula since 1980, for example, has increased by 12 to 15 percent.

Natural disasters drive about 26 million people into poverty every year, says the World Bank, and cause annual losses of about $520 million (463 million euros).

- 1,688 species -

Of the 8,688 species of animals and plants listed as "threatened" on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature's (IUCN) Red List, 19 percent -- 1,688 species -- have been negatively affected by climate change.

Scientists warn that parts of Australia's Great Barrier Reef may never recover from an unprecedented second straight year of bleaching.

CLIMATE SCIENCE
With or without Trump, US businesses moving on climate
Washington (AFP) May 31, 2017
President Donald Trump may be dragging out his decision on whether to ditch the Paris climate agreement, but major American corporations have not waited for a government signal to start cutting their carbon emissions. Before Trump had even raised the possibility of scrapping US involvement in the landmark 2015 treaty, Coca-Cola and the engineering giant General Electric already had pledged t ... read more

Related Links
Climate Science News - Modeling, Mitigation Adaptation


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