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CLIMATE SCIENCE
Climate debate takes global pulse ahead of Paris summit
By Catherine HOURS
Paris (AFP) June 6, 2015


Global citizens 'very concerned' about climate: poll
Paris (AFP) June 7, 2015 - The widest global effort yet to gauge citizens' views on climate change showed 79 percent to be "very concerned" about its effects, but less than half support a carbon tax to curb emissions, organisers said Sunday.

Results of the day-long consultation held in 75 countries on Saturday were posted on the website of the initiative dubbed World Wide Views on Climate and Energy.

Next week, they will be put to climate negotiators meeting in Bonn, Germany ahead of a year-end United Nations conference in Paris, where nations have undertaken to sign a new world pact to curb global warming.

Responses to a multiple-choice questionnaire showed that 71 percent of the 10,000-odd participants believe the UN negotiations process has not done enough to tackle climate change.

Nineteen percent of people said they were "moderately concerned" about the effects of climate change, and fewer than two percent were not at all concerned.

A large 64 percent believes the Paris agreement should "do whatever it takes" to limit global warming to two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) over pre-Industrial Revolution levels -- the UN goal.

When it comes to practical measures to halt planet-warming carbon emissions, however, the responses are more nuanced.

Only 16 percent support the introduction of a tax on carbon for all countries, 42 percent for all countries but with rising costs for those not reducing emissions, and 30 percent a tax linked to a country's level of development.

Nearly one in 10 was against a tax, which many green groups consider the best way to turn the tide against fossil fuels.

Forty-five percent of respondents said the world should stop exploring for fossil fuel reserves, but nearly a quarter believed it should continue.

From Senegal to China, Madagascar, Brazil and Japan, 96 debates were held with people from a cross-section of society in 75 countries.

Organisers included the secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which gathers 195 nations in negotiations for a new, global pact, and France, the host of December's Conference of Parties.

Scientists warn that on current trends, Earth is on track for double the targeted 2 C limit, or more -- a recipe for catastrophic droughts, fiercer storms and other extreme weather events.

The new pact will seek to stop the trend, supported by a roster of national pledges for greenhouse gas cuts.

Sixty-nine percent of participants in the global debate said the final deal should be legally binding on all the world's nations, and 93 percent said countries should agree in Paris to review their commitments every five years.

"I hope that decision-makers will find this initiative an important echo chamber of citizens' concerns, hopes and aspirations for the kind of world they want for themselves and their children," Christiana Figueres, executive director of the UN's Framework Convention on Climate Change, one of the organisers of the event, said Saturday.

From the typhoon-ravaged Philippines to the Arizona desert, thousands of people gathered across 79 countries Saturday for what was touted as the world's largest-ever public debate on climate change.

Results of the day-long consultations will be submitted to climate change negotiators meeting in Bonn, Germany ahead of a year-end United Nations summit in Paris where global leaders will gather to forge a new treaty aimed at curbing global warming.

"I hope that decision-makers will find this initiative an important echo chamber of citizens' concerns, hopes and aspirations for the kind of world they want for themselves and their children," said Christiana Figueres, executive director of the UN's Framework Convention on Climate Change, one of the organisers of the event.

"It is also an important contribution to galvanising public understanding of what can often seem a highly complex topic, but one that goes to the heart of everyone's lives."

From Senegal to China, Madagascar, Brazil and Japan, 100 debates were held in 79 countries. In each nation, 100 people from a cross-section of society participated in each of the day-long discussions.

They were asked how concerned they were about climate change, if climate negotiators should seek an ambitious accord, and if the Paris agreement should be legally binding for all countries.

Every participant was required to vote.

"People have diverse opinions, but they are concerned," said Alain Vauzanges, a retired participant in Paris.

Organisers will present the results to climate change negotiators meeting in Bonn next week, and in other meetings leading up to the Paris summit set for November 30 to December 11.

- 'Voices of poor, vulnerable' -

One of the first debates Saturday took place in the Philippines, a Southeast Asian nation particularly vulnerable to climate change and already hit by an average of 20 major storms or typhoons a year.

In 2013, Super Typhoon Haiyan hit the country with the strongest winds ever recorded on land, leaving 7,350 people dead or missing.

The Philippine meeting gathered "ordinary people", including farmers, minibus drivers, housewives, street vendors and professionals, discussion moderator Editha Pimentel told AFP.

One of the participants in Manila, high school teacher Jocelyn Pedernal, said she believed the forum could be a way for world powers to hear the voices of the poor and vulnerable.

"Even a small speck of dust can get caught in the eye and have an effect," she told AFP.

"The big countries are the ones who should show the way and apply the measures to stem climate change. They are the ones who emit the most carbon."

Another participant, tricycle driver Bartolome Pidar, 35, said he wanted to tell leaders of rich nations about his suffering.

"The poor are the ones who feel the effects of the heat and rain. The rich have houses and air conditioning," said Pidar, a father of three.

The consultations were co-organised by the French National Commission for Public Debate, French consulting firm Missions Publiques and the Danish Board of Technology Foundation, together with universities, NGOs, think-tanks and local groups worldwide.

The debates "will not change the face of the negotiations, but at least, decision makers will be informed" of what people want, said organiser Yves Mathieu.

They also helped raise awareness on the dangers of global warming, said Pierre Radanne, a French climate change expert.

"We won't be able to deal with the climate issue without making an alliance with people: half of greenhouse gas emissions come from the activities we do in our private lives, like heating, food and transport," Radanne said.

The goal of the planned Paris pact, which must enter into force by 2020, is to limit global warming to two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) over pre-Industrial Revolution levels.

Scientists warn that on current trends, Earth is on track for double that or more -- a recipe for catastrophic droughts, fiercer storms like Haiyan and other extreme weather events.

France's Fabius calls for G7 countries to act on climate change
Paris (AFP) June 6, 2015 - French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius on Saturday called for global action against climate change and greater investment in renewable energy, a day ahead of the G7 summit of world leaders.

With a major climate conference coming up in Paris in December and climate change high on his agenda, Fabius said in an interview he wanted G7 leaders to commit to decarbonisation, and a dramatic decrease in greenhouse gases.

"We want to adopt a target for global reduction of 40 to 70 percent of greenhouse gases between 2010 and 2050," Fabius told the French daily Le Monde, citing IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) recommendations.

Fabius said that G7 countries, some of the richest in the world, needed to commit to financing climate change initiatives and fulfilling their financial promises.

"For many countries, financing is a condition, a key point, for an agreement in Paris. So it's crucial that the countries of G7 respect financing needs, and if necessary, give money," he said.

At climate change discussions in Copenhagen in 2009, rich countries promised 100 billion dollars a year by 2020 in public and private financing to aid developing nations.

The French foreign minister called for wealthy nations to keep their promises and back words with actions.

"The receiving countries need to tell themselves that these are not empty promises, but money that will help transform their economies.

"Many countries are waiting for G7 to take action against climate change," he said.

One important area of investment, according to Fabius, was Africa's renewable energy.

He said G7 countries needed to launch "a big investment plan in renewable energy for Africa".

Fabius also called for a generalisation of an alert system for vulnerable countries, adding that countries and donors interested in the alert system initiative would meet at the end of June.

A new treaty aimed at curbing global warming -- if it is signed at the UN summit in Paris -- is expected to take effect in 2020.

"But 2020 is far away," said Fabius.

"Many leaders ask, what will we do between 2015 and 2020? These two initiatives can help reinforce the negotiations of the entire climate conference."

Path to 2 C emerges as thorn at climate talks
Bonn (AFP) June 5, 2015 - The world community has rallied around the goal of limiting global warming to two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), but how to get there is becoming a headache.

One of the many knots to untangle at UN climate talks is whether to set a trajectory for reaching 2 C -- and if so, how.

Some countries say the 2 C goal itself is too vague, and needs to be buttressed by a long-term ceiling for greenhouse gas emissions.

"It would be clearer and more concrete than 2 C. But it's a tough issue," says French negotiator Laurence Tubiana, whose country will host the November 30 to December 11 UN parlay in Paris where the pact is set to be sealed.

The idea of a pathway first arose in 2009 at the UN climate summit in Copenhagen, where a small group of leaders, desperate to avoid a fiasco, cobbled together an agreement setting a 2 C target.

It was only the following year that members of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) endorsed the goal.

Negotiators also specified the limit be set against a benchmark of temperature before the Industrial Revolution, when coal began to be burned in big quantities, followed by gas and oil.

But important stepping stones for reaching 2 C have not yet been put in place.

And the mood in Bonn, at the halfway point in an 11-day round of pre-Paris talks, shows how problematic the issue is.

The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says that on current emissions trends, the planet could be up to 4.8 C warmer by 2100, which would drive an increase in hunger, floods and homelessness.

For a good chance of attaining the 2 C limit, global annual carbon emissions must fall by 40 to 70 percent by 2050 compared to 2010 levels -- and to zero or below by 2100, the IPCC says.

Translating the requirements of science into political language that satisfies 195 nations, including highly climate-vulnerable states and major users or producers of fossil fuels, is a big ask.

Several options for the draft accord are being booted around.

Small-island states are calling for carbon emissions to peak as soon as possible to limit warming to 1.5 C, a safer but far tougher goal.

European nations, meanwhile, want a reduction of at least 60 percent by 2050 over 2010 levels.

"If countries really want to show that they are moving out of fossil fuels, as the IPCC recommends, they have to set a target for 2050 and a deadline for reaching zero emissions," says Alix Mazounie, a French activist with the Climate Action Network (CAN).

But, as a European negotiator acknowledged, "the problem with setting a precise figure is that it opens up the question over who does what to get there.

"Any attempt to calculate national (carbon-cutting) contributions for 2050 will be a surefire failure."

- Textual trap? -

But sketchier objectives may also be unacceptable.

Big fossil-fuel exporters Saudi Arabia and Australia, for instance, are against anti-oil and anti-coal terms such as "decarbonisation" of the economy.

"Net zero emissions by 2100," an idea supported by the United States, Canada and Japan, seems to be making headway in some quarters, but not others.

"Adding 'net' to a goal of 'zero emissions' may prove to be a trap," British campaign group ActionAid says.

The term may empower countries to count carbon-absorbing forests and farmland towards emissions offsets, rather than actively curb the pollution, it said.

With just three words, the UNFCCC "could drive devastating land grabs and hunger through the large-scale use of land, biofuels and biomass to absorb rising carbon dioxide emissions", ActionAid warned.


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