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British Defense Secretary Warns Of Looming Water Wars

From disputes between India and China over the Brahmaputra River, to struggles between African states for a greater share of the Nile's water, flashpoints are emerging as governments grapple for control of the precious commodity of water.
by Hannah K. Strange
UPI U.K. Correspondent
London, UK (UPI) Feb 28, 2006
Climate change could become a major source of global conflict over the next 30 years, with countries battling for control of water supplies, British Defense Secretary John Reid has warned.

He pointed to a looming collision between a growing world population and increasingly scarce water resources, saying violent confrontations between states would become more likely as global warming caused deserts to engulf land, ice fields to melt and water supplies to become contaminated.

Speaking at a conference London international affairs think tank Chatham House Monday evening, Reid listed climate change as one of the major emerging threats to global security, alongside international terrorism and energy shortfalls.

Britain's armed forces would have to be prepared to cope with conflicts over shrinking resources, he suggested.

Military planners have already begun considering the consequences of climate change for British forces over the coming three decades, and warn that they must be ready for an increased number of humanitarian relief operations, peacekeeping and conflict interventions. Climate change was also cited as a growing threat to security by several NATO officials at the conference as it continued Tuesday.

Reid said climate change was already contributing to conflicts in Africa, and pointed to an uncertain future for impoverished countries unequipped to deal with water shortages, flooding and desertification.

"As we look beyond the next decade, we see uncertainty growing; uncertainty about the geopolitical and human consequences of climate change," he said.

"Impacts such as flooding, melting permafrost and desertification could lead to loss of agricultural land, poisoning of water supplies and destruction of economic infrastructure.

"More than 300 million people in Africa currently lack access to safe water; climate change will worsen this dire situation."

He continued: "These changes are not just of interest to the geographer or the demographer; they will make scarce resources, clean water, viable agricultural land even scarcer.

"Such changes make the emergence of violent conflict more rather than less likely... The blunt truth is that the lack of water and agricultural land is a significant contributory factor to the tragic conflict we see unfolding in Darfur. We should see this as a warning sign."

Reid's comments came on the eve of a Downing Street summit hosted by Prime Minister Tony Blair, where British ministers were to meet with opposition politicians and environmental campaigners to discuss the nation's response to climate change.

In an open letter to members of the Stop Climate Chaos coalition, penned before the summit, Blair said he understood the frustrations of campaigners at the "seemingly slow progress" in combating the threat of climate change.

He acknowledged: "The cost of inaction is clear. Almost every day, there is new evidence of how our climate is becoming more extreme and the impact on people and our environment. Every week, there are new and authoritative scientific studies warning that, without urgent action, this may be just a taste of what the future holds."

However Britain had made significant progress, he said. It was one of only two pre-2005 EU member states on course to meet its Kyoto targets and was working hard to meet its own targets of reducing greenhouse emissions by 20 percent by 2010, he said. At the Group of Eight summit in Scotland last year a new dialog had been opened on a framework for tackling climate change after the expiry of the Kyoto Protocol in 2012, he added.

But after the talks, a spokesperson for the coalition - an umbrella group of environmental and humanitarian organizations and trade unions - expressed skepticism that Blair's words would be backed up by action.

"We were encouraged that we were able to open a dialogue with the prime minister," the spokesperson said. "But it's not about talking and warm words, it's about concrete action."

The coalition noted that Blair had failed to mention in his letter that to keep the global temperature rise below the widely accepted danger threshold of 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, global carbon emissions must be on a downward path by 2015.

Britain had also failed to fulfill pledges of cash to help poor countries cope with the effects of climate change, it said.

Ashok Sinha, Stop Climate Chaos director, said: "We told the prime minister that urgent and comprehensive action is needed to avert climate chaos. This must begin by setting an annual carbon budget for the U.K. to drive down emissions in every sector."

Liberal Democrat Shadow Environment Secretary Norman Baker released a dossier accusing the government of having a "shameful record" on climate change.

British carbon emissions had risen in 2005, he noted, while the Department for Trade and Industry was attempting to weaken targets for businesses under the EU emissions trading scheme. Blair had failed to truly bring the United States on board for climate change negotiations at the G8, and had "thrown in the towel" on cutting emissions from air travel, the fastest growing source of emissions, Baker continued.

Blair's claims that the United States is moving towards the European position on climate change appear to be based largely on wishful thinking. In January, the prime minister insisted a post-Kyoto treaty based on cutting emissions through targets was essential to the fight against global warming; Washington has said repeatedly it will not sign up to any such agreement.

Meanwhile, tensions continue to flare across the globe over access to diminishing water supplies. From disputes between India and China over the Brahmaputra River, to struggles between African states for a greater share of the Nile's water, flashpoints are emerging as governments grapple for control of the precious commodity. The fear is that as climate change worsens and resources become ever scarcer, angry words could easily spill over into violence.

Source: United Press International

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