The National Intelligence Estimate also found that the proliferation of medium range missiles has created "an immediate, serious and growing threat to US forces, interests and allies," according to an unclassified summary of the document

The study projected that "during the next 15 years the United States most likely will face ICBM threats from Russia, China and North Korea, probably from Iran and possibly from Iraq."

A senior intelligence official said the projected missile threat was "not all that different" from the US intelligence community's last report a year ago

But unlike previous years, this year's estimate projects what countries could do as well as what analysts judge they are likely to do

The report said countries seeking longer range missiles envision them not as "operational weapons of war, but primarily as strategic weapons of deterrence and coercive diplomacy."

However, it also noted that "the probability that a WMD-armed missile will be used against US forces or interests is higher today than during most of the Cold War."

Short and medium range missiles in particular are seen "not only as deterrents but also as force-multiplying weapons of war, primarily with conventional weapons, but with options for delivering biological, chemical and eventually nuclear weapons," it said

Leading the pack of so-called rogue states seeking longer range missiles is North Korea, which US intelligence analysts believe will probably test a Taepo Dong-2 missile this year unless Pyongyang holds off for political reasons

"Most analysts believe it could be tested at any time, probably initially as an SLV (space launch vehicle), unless delayed for political reasons," the report said

North Korea stunned the world a year ago by test firing a three-stage Taepo Dong-1 over Japan. The United States, Japan and South Korea have warned Pygonyang against carrying out a second flight test

The rocket's third stage failed during powered flight, according to the report, which described it as a space launch vehicle rather than a missile

The intelligence estimate said North Korea could use a converted Taepo Dong-1 to deliver a lighter chemical or biological agent warhead to the United States if it had an operable third stage and a re-entry vehicle capable of surviving ICBM flight

But most analysts believe that North Korea "is much more likely to weaponize the more capable Taepo Dong-2 than the three-stage Taepo Dong-1 as an ICBM."

"A two-stage Taepo Dong-2 could deliver a several hundred kilogram payload to Alaska and Hawaii, and a lighter payload to the western half of the United States," it said

"A three-stage Taepo Dong-2 could deliver a several hundred kilogram payload anywhere in the United States," it added

A payload of several hundred kilograms is big enough for an early generation nuclear weapon, the report said

Next in line to test an ICBM capable of hitting the United States is Iran

"Iran could test an ICBM that could deliver a several hundred kilogram payload to many parts of the United States in the latter half of the next decade, using Russian technology and assistance," it said

Most analysts believe Iran could test a Taepo Dong-1 missile or a three stage Taepo Dong-2, possibly with North Korean assistance, in the next few years, the report said

"Iran is likely to test an SLV by 2010 that -- once developed -- could be converted into an ICBM capable of delivering a several hundred kilogram payload to the United States," it said

Iraq also was judged capable of testing an ICBM that could reach the United States during the next 15 years, but analysts disagreed on how likely it was, the report said

"Assessments include 'unlikely' before 2015; and 'likely" before 2015, possibly before 2010 -- foreign assistance would affect the capability and the timing," the report said

"If Iraq could buy a Taepo Dong-2 from North Korea, it could have a launch capability within months of the purchase; if it bought Taepo Dong engines, it could test an ICBM by the middle of the next decade," the report said

"Iraq probably would take until the end of the next decade to develop the system domestically," it said.

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