The central reason Japan lags the US, Europe and Russia in space development is a lack of big science and military funding. Without this funding it never developed the production systems to compete commercially. With the prospect of large satellite constellations emerging as the next big addition to the world�s telecom industry, Japan is itching to find a project that is commercially feasible and which would support development of large scale production facilities for building commercial satellites. A recent MPT report outlines one possible scenario and points to an immediate direction for Japan�s space industry to pursue.

TOKYO � May 15, 1997 - In an April report released by the Ministry of Post and Telecommunications the MPT is planning to develop technologies in support of a next-generation global satellite communication constellation that will provide 2 Mega bit per second data-transmission by 2010.

The report, which followed a six-month study initiated last October, envisages the building of a global multimedia mobile satellite communications system (GMMSS) satellites that would provide services to exchange data with notebook computers and cellular phones, access the Internet, image transmission, broadcasting services and cellular phones. The report estimates revenues worth $6.5 billion per year based on a ten percent share of the satellite communication market in 2010 and prices the development at $8.8 billion.

"We would like to develop a LEO-based satellite mobile communication system enabling communication speeds up to around 2 Mbps including those for video signals," said Masao Matsumoto, director of the MPT's space communications policy division.

MPT is launching the R&D program with the Tokyo-based Telecommunications Advancement Organization, together with the Communications Research Laboratory (CRL) and the National Space Development Agency of Japan (NASDA).

The report details scenarios for possible constellation sizes ranging from 16 and 1,288 satellites in orbits of between 700 and 10,000 kilometers altitude.

Matsumoto predicted that initial experimental satellites would carry 10 meter dishes to support 2 Mbps speeds based on technology available over the next decade.

Scientists will also investigate the possibility of S, C, Ka and millimeter-bands at 64, 384 Kbps and 2Mbps. Noting that portable telephone communications may be possible at up to 2 Mpbs, the report concludes that Mbps capability will not be feasible for Ka and millimeter- bands.

"The data transmission rates and which bands will be used haven't been decided yet and there will be many problems about deciding which ones to use. We want to get much higher data rates than, for example, the Iridium system. I think we must study C and Ka-bands especially," said a representative from NASDA's satellite development office.

Last September, Matsumoto told Japan Space Net that he expected a first experimental satellite to be placed in orbit in around 2002 but that plan has been shelved in the face of technical debates and possible lack of funding from The Ministry of Finance.

"We have had to put back the launch date because of both reasons. We already have the Engineering Test Satellite VIII to be launched in 2002 and possibly a satellite to support gigabit calls communications. We been involved in heavy negotiations with the Ministry of Finance. We took their views into consideration and we felt we needed to take a deeper look at the technology," said Matsumoto.

"These are preliminary proposals, not a final report. The system will be a big challenge to develop and we're finding it very difficult to define the satellite configuration," said Ichiro Taniguchi, general manager of Mitsubishi Electric Corp., of Tokyo, who was part of the 30-plus member committee that submitted the report.

"It's just a paperwork-only study right now. We haven't really thought about the satellites, we aren't sure what kind of platform we'll use," said the NASDA representative. One likely option would be to build a minimum network of two to three satellites. Considering a 1000 km LEO scenario, a global constellation could involve as many as 800 satellites, the official added.

A two-stage development plan kicks off with an initial 65 million yen ($6 million) budget this year and experimental satellite design slated for budget inclusion as early as 1999. Regarding future funding, Matsumoto said that the MPT would be negotiating with the Fiance Ministry on a year-by-year basis until 1999 when the decision would be taken about the configuration of at least one initial experimental satellite, for launch by 2005

While the plan envisages the launch of three satellites in 2004, 5 and 6, Matsumoto and other sources declined to confirm specific launch years. The report also stated that technology trials be completed by 2007, about the time when the Globalstar and ICO constellations reach the end of their operational life.

"There are lots of options, but it will be necessary to get the satellites space-proven by 2006 at the latest," said Matsumoto.

Of the five satellite communications constellations planned for launch between 1998 and 2002, only the proposed 924 satellite Teledesic constellation, due to begin operation in 2002, will offer near to 2Mps transmissions speeds. U.S.-based Iridium Inc., Odyssey Telecommunications International Inc., Globalstar Limited Partnership, and UK-based ICO Global Communications, will offer data transmission rates based on voice channel allocations restricting data speeds to less than 64Kbps.

"It won't be in competition with the Teledesic system, it'll be a next-generation system, that will use more advanced technologies to deliver faster mobile services," said Matsumoto.

Officials predicted that Japanese satellite makers would be looking at forming joint ventures with US and European firms in the middle of the next decade to construct the system.

Officials from NEC Corp. and Mitsubishi Electric Corp., both of which intend to begin competing in commercial satellite development from as early as 2000, expressed keen interest in the project.

"We'll be very happy to join this program. Japanese companies should collaborate with foreign firms and this should not be financed solely by Japan," said Taniguchi.

"This is a project on a global scale. It will be very important for Japan to cooperate internationally on this and NEC will have an important role to play in the development of an advanced global satellite infrastructure," said Hiroaki Shimayama, senior vice president of NEC.