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NUKEWARS
White House clinches support for Iran nuclear deal
By Michael Mathes with Dave Clark in Philadelphia
Washington (AFP) Sept 2, 2015


Kerry pushes to broaden support for Iran deal
Philadelphia (AFP) Sept 2, 2015 - US Secretary of State John Kerry made a late bid to broaden backing for the Iran nuclear deal Wednesday after the administration won the bare minimum of congressional support needed to ensure its survival.

Kerry flew to the US city of Philadelphia for the latest stage in his battle to defend the accord, under which Iran agreed to international supervision of its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.

But his target audience was back home in Washington, where President Barack Obama's White House is lobbying to ensure enough backing for the deal to survive a bid by Republican lawmakers to sink it.

Kerry's address attacked what he sees as the myths that have grown up around the agreement, insisting it is not a capitulation to Tehran but instead the best and only way to halt its quest for the bomb.

Washington's senior diplomat said that in 2013, when Obama and his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani launched the negotiation process, Iran had already "transformed itself into a nuclear threshold state."

"In the Obama administration, we were well aware of that troubling fact and, more important, we were already responding to it," he said, arguing that Iran was already then under tight economic sanctions.

"But we also had to face an obvious fact: sanctions alone were not getting the job done, not even close," he said.

"They were failing to slow, let alone halt, Iran's relentless march toward a nuclear weapons capability."

So, Kerry said, Obama decided to marshall US allies and world powers and to push Tehran into talks and to negotiate "until finally we arrived at the good and effective deal we had sought.

"Without this agreement, Iran's so-called breakout time was about two months. With this agreement it will increase by a factor of six, to at least a year, and will remain at that level for a decade or more."

- 'Zero tolerance' -

In an impassioned address Kerry reiterated the arguments he has been making in the two months since the deal was signed, insisting it is not based on trusting Tehran but on its ability to police its activity.

"The United States and the international community will be monitoring Iran non-stop and you can bet that, if we see something, we will do something," he said.

"The agreement gives us a wide range of enforcement tools, and we will use them. And the standard we will apply can be summed up in two words: 'Zero tolerance.'

"There is no way to guarantee that Iran will keep its word, and that's why this isn't based on a promise or trust, but we can guarantee that Iran will regret breaking any promise it has made."

The US Congress may vote on the Iran deal as early as next week, and it was only on Tuesday that the White House won the cautious support of a senator seen as key to the deal's survival.

With Democrat Barbara Mikulski's now on board, the deal has 34 backers in the Senate, a minority but enough to prevent the body from overturning Obama's veto if he has to block a bid to stop it.

US President Barack Obama on Wednesday earned sufficient congressional backing to ensure the Iran nuclear deal does not get blocked, when a veteran Democrat became the crucial 34th senator to back the controversial accord.

Most US lawmakers are opposed to the deal, which would ease punishing economic sanctions on Tehran while preventing it from advancing its nuclear program. Many Republicans warn that the Islamic republic will seek to cheat its way to an atomic bomb.

But with Senate Democrat Barbara Mikulski announcing her support Wednesday, the deal now has 34 backers in the 100-member Senate -- the magic number needed to uphold a certain Obama veto should Congress pass a resolution that disapproves of the deal.

Overcoming a veto requires a two-thirds vote in the Senate and House of Representatives.

While the deal is not perfect, Mikulski said, "I have concluded that this is the best option available to block Iran from having a nuclear bomb."

Some Republicans have urged walking away from the deal and renegotiating tougher terms with Tehran, but US negotiators have warned that such a move could see the fragile international coalition that secured the agreement fall apart.

"At best, sanctions would be porous, or limited to unilateral sanctions by the US," said Mikulski, the longest-serving female senator in history.

The White House said it was "encouraged" that more than a third of Senators were in line.

"This strong support is a validation of the outreach that the president and his team have organized," White House spokesman Josh Earnest told reporters.

Republicans are unified in their opposition, warning that the deal leaves a civilian nuclear program intact, and that sanctions will provide Iran with a windfall of up to $150 billion, which they say could be funnelled toward terrorist operations.

Almost all 17 Republican presidential hopefuls are openly opposed.

"I believe that the American people are going to look back on this and say this was the single worst thing this president's ever done," candidate and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie told Fox News after Mikulski's announcement.

"Every death that Iran causes is now on Barack Obama's head."

- 'Zero tolerance' -

Secretary of State John Kerry, delivering a speech in Philadelphia on the Iran deal, said the Islamic republic will be required to live up to the agreement in full before it starts benefitting from sanctions relief.

"Without this agreement, Iran's so-called breakout time (to produce enough fuel for a nuclear weapon) was about two months. With this agreement it will increase by a factor of six, to at least a year, and will remain at that level for a decade or more," Kerry said.

He also reiterated arguments he has been making in the two months since the deal was signed, insisting it is not based on trusting Tehran but on its ability to police its activity.

"The United States and the international community will be monitoring Iran non-stop and you can bet that, if we see something, we will do something," he said.

"The standard we will apply can be summed up in two words: 'Zero tolerance.'"

Kerry made no mention of reaching the 34-vote Senate threshold in his speech, seeking to avoid the image of a victory lap as he aims to broaden support for the deal.

But he told CNN that the administration "will continue to try to persuade people up until the last moment."

Having been assured that the deal will survive, the White House is now eyeing another key threshold. If it gains backing from seven of the remaining undecided Senate Democrats to boost its numbers to 41, it could prevent Republicans from reaching the 60 members needed to force a vote on the resolution of disapproval.

That would save Obama the embarrassing step of cobbling together a minority coalition to sustain his veto preserving his landmark agreement, a process that would sow doubts among a skeptical American public and Washington's international partners, which are keen to see strong US commitment to the accord.

Two Democratic senators stand opposed to the deal, as do a handful of House Democrats.

But House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi insisted Wednesday she would have sufficient votes supporting Obama.

"I am confident we will sustain the president's veto in both houses of Congress," Pelosi said.

Congress will vote later this month on the accord, which was reached in July between Tehran and six world powers: Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States.

Among Democrats in support, many have expressed deep concern about Iran's adherence to the deal, and stressed it is the best of bad options.

"The alternative, to me, is a scenario of uncertainty and isolation," Senator Chris Coons said Tuesday as he announced his support.


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