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NUKEWARS
US, Russia reset faces new challenges
by Staff Writers
Deauville, France (AFP) May 26, 2011


US President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev arrive at the Centre International de Deauville to hold G8 summit in Deauville on May 26, 2011. G8 chiefs met to call for an end to the violent repression of revolts in Syria and Libya and expressed confidence that partner Japan will recover fully from nuclear disaster. Japan intends to host a global meeting on nuclear safety with UN atomic energy watchdog IAEA late next year, Prime Minister Naoto Kan told Group of Eight leaders Thursday. Photo courtesy AFP.

Medvedev offers 2020 date for missile solution
Deauville, France (AFP) May 26, 2011 - Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said Thursday after talks with US President Barack Obama that an ultimate solution to the long-running row over missile defence may not happen until after 2020.

Medvedev and Obama met on the sidelines of the G8 summit in Deauville, France, and also discussed the economy, counter-terrorism and Russia's pending entry into the World Trade Organization.

Before the summit, Medvedev had warned of the chances of a new Cold War in Europe should Washington build its missile system without the Kremlin's agreement, though other Russian officials played down the row.

Obama and Medvedev both looked stern-faced as they spoke to reporters after the talks, but both insisted that US-Russian ties, "reset" under the Obama administration, were in good shape.

Medvedev said the missile defence issue "will finally be solved in the future, like for example in the year 2020" by future politicians.

But he added that he and the US leader could "lay the foundation for other politicians," and called Obama his "colleague and political partner."

Obama said he and Medvedev were "committed to working together so we can find an approach and configuration that is consistent with the security needs of both countries... that maintains a strategic balance and deals with potential threats we both share."

Russia's recent tough talk and decision to test two nuclear-capable heavy missiles in the past month underscore a fear in Moscow that the Obama administration is paying lip service to the "reset" in relations announced by Washington in 2009.

Moscow has in recent months complained that it is being sidelined in talks over the joint missile defence for Europe and Medvedev's remarks may underscore the Kremlin's disappointment over the current negotiations.

The United States argues that the shield is meant only to protect Europe from nations such as Iran but has said nothing about Russian security safeguards.

Analysts note that Moscow is primarily worried the system will leave a permanent stamp on the security map of Europe and formalise the reduced role Russia plays in the post-Cold War world.

Despite diplomatic payoffs and a "free-flowing" dialogue with the Kremlin, the legacy of Cold War history and suspicion sometimes still challenges the "reset" US-Russia relationship.

Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev met Thursday on the sides of the G8 economic summit in France, and there were the usual professions of friendship, cooperation and praise for how far they have come in two years.

US officials say the reset has yielded a new nuclear pact, several key Russian diplomatic interventions, and regular progress towards navigating the political thicket thrown up against the Americans' Europe-based defense system.

They cite the fact Russia did not block a UN resolution paving the way for NATO action in Libya and brandished 12 communiques on joint initiatives issued on matters as diverse as business and anti-terror cooperation on Thursday.

They say Obama and Medvedev have "free-flowing" chats and said that their stern expressions on display before reporters Thursday were the result of translation issues and a muggy room, rather than a testy meeting.

But time and again, Russia prickliness over the missile defense scheme emerges, despite Obama's decision to scale down a George W. Bush-era system, reasoning he could still meet the threat from Iran's missiles.

And there have been signs that the Russian side is perhaps less enamoured with its ties with Washington -- and uncertainty about how the "reset" might be impacted if Vladimir Putin recaptures the presidency next year.

Asked whether there was still a lack of trust at some level of the US-Russia relationship, Michael McFaul, senior director for Russia on the National Security Council answered simply: "Yes."

But McFaul said the pace of talks on the missile defense system and what he said was a "bold" visit last year to a NATO summit -- an organization set up to resist the Soviet Union -- by Medvedev were proof of the reset's worth.

Another key NSC official Ben Rhodes said the very act of tackling big issues helped build layers of trust through the US-Russia relationship -- with the potential to deliver a lasting legacy.

"It's the issue of trust and that trust builds up through these types of discussions," Rhodes said.

"The United States and Russia see it in their common interests and have made again, commitments across our governments to work together in a sense of cooperation in ways that will endure for years to come," Rhodes said.

Signs of sensitivity over the missile defense programme were revealed again Thursday when Medvedev commented that the ultimate solution over the system may not be ultimately put to rest until he and Obama are gone from the political scene.

The Russian leader said the missile defence issue "will finally be solved in the future, like for example in the year 2020" by future politicians, and that he and Obama can only lay the groundwork for their successors.

McFaul played down concerns about the 2020 timeline, saying that it was based on Russian concerns that phase four of the system could threaten "strategic stability."

"We have no intention of doing that," said McFaul.

Obama, recognizing the tricky diplomatic territory, promised to work with Medvedev "so we can find an approach and configuration that is consistent with the security needs of both countries."

But Russia has frequently complained that its issues over missile defense have been sidelined and Medvedev this month said he could pull out of the new START disarmament treaty if the shield is deployed without Kremlin input.

"This would be a very bad scenario. It would be a scenario that throws us back into the Cold War era," he said.

Moscow analysts say Russia's presidential election next year could reshape the "reset" if Medvedev's senior partner Putin seeks to become head of state again.

Putin is known for a more hawkish stance on foreign policy than Medvedev -- and there will likely be political pressures which bubble up in Moscow with the potential to impact the tie-up with Washington which could slow progress.

"Concerning the elections, that's obviously for the Russians to decide. That's not for us to decide," said McFaul.

"We have a set of national interests in working with Russia on the set of things we've just been talking about, and we will continue to do so, irrespective of what happens in the Russian election next year."

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Related Links
Learn about nuclear weapons doctrine and defense at SpaceWar.com
Learn about missile defense at SpaceWar.com
All about missiles at SpaceWar.com
Learn about the Superpowers of the 21st Century at SpaceWar.com






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