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NUKEWARS
Iran, US go face-to-face in crunch nuclear talks
by Staff Writers
Vienna (AFP) Nov 19, 2014


Britain 'not optimistic' on Iran nuclear talks
Vienna (AFP) Nov 19, 2014 - Britain expressed doubts Wednesday that a nuclear deal could be reached with Iran by a looming deadline, as Tehran and six world powers haggled in a final round of talks in Vienna.

Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond indicated the most to be hoped for was enough progress to justify putting yet more time on the clock beyond Monday's cut-off point.

"I am not optimistic that we can get everything done by Monday," he said on a visit to Latvia.

"But I think if we make some significant movement, we may be able to find a way of extending the deadline to allow us to get to the final deal, if we are making good progress in the right direction."

A US State Department spokesman however insisted that negotiators were still trying to get a deal done in time -- something that many experts doubt, particularly as an earlier July deadline was missed.

"Our hope remains to try to achieve an agreement by November 24. We're not talking about an extension... we are focused on November 24 as the deadline," spokesman Jeffrey Rathke told reporters in Washington.

Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany have been trying since February to turn an interim accord reached a year ago into a lasting agreement before November 24.

Such a deal, after 12 years of rising tensions, is aimed at easing fears that Tehran will develop nuclear weapons under the guise of its civilian activities -- an ambition it denies.

Some areas appear provisionally settled, such as the future of the Arak nuclear reactor and tighter UN inspections to better detect any attempt to build a bomb.

But two key issues remain: uranium enrichment -- rendering uranium suitable for peaceful uses but also, at high purities, for a weapon -- and the pace at which sanctions on Iran might be lifted.

Iran wants to massively ramp up the number of enrichment centrifuges -- in order, it says, to make fuel for a fleet of future reactors -- while the West wants them dramatically reduced, reportedly by half.

The powers say Iran has no major enrichment need at present. Russia is contracted until 2021 to fuel Iran's only power reactor and last week signed a deal to build -- and fuel -- several others.

In exchange for any reduction in its activities, Iran wants sanctions lifted. Bur the powers want to stagger any suspension to be sure that Iran won't renege on its commitments.

"They want everything all at once and this is not realistic," one Western diplomat involved in the talks said.

US Secretary of State John Kerry and other foreign ministers from the six powers were expected to fly into Vienna later in the week.

But Kerry was still in London on Wednesday and was not expected in the Austrian capital until Thursday afternoon at the earliest following a trip to Paris to meet the French and Saudi foreign ministers.

And Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, whose country is a crucial player in the talks, will only attend if there is sufficient progress, Moscow's lead negotiator Sergei Ryabkov told Russian media.

"Right now a lot depends on Kerry's visit. Reaching a deal depends on the willingness and ability of the United States to lift sanctions" on Iran, RIA Novosti quoted a Russian source as saying.

Upping the ante, Iran's President Hassan Rouhani said that a deal was possible only if the six powers did not ask for too much.

"If the other side shows the political will to reach an accord and doesn't make excessive demands, a deal could be done," he said on his website.

But Kerry put the onus on Iran.

"It is imperative that Iran works with us with all possible effort to prove to the world that the programme is peaceful," Kerry said in London on Tuesday.

Iran and the US held one-on-one talks Wednesday as a deadline loomed to reach a mammoth nuclear deal, seeking common ground on the two crucial remaining issues: uranium enrichment and sanctions relief.

US Secretary of State John Kerry and other foreign ministers from the six powers meanwhile decided to hold off for at least another 24 hours joining the final round of negotiations before Monday's cut-off point.

Kerry remained in London before talks in Paris Thursday with the foreign ministers of France -- widely seen as one of the six powers with the toughest stance on Iran -- and of Saudi Arabia, itself no friend of Iran.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, whose country is a crucial player in the talks, will only attend if there is sufficient progress, Moscow's lead negotiator Sergei Ryabkov told Russian media.

"Right now a lot depends on Kerry's visit. Reaching a deal depends on the willingness and ability of the United States to lift sanctions" on Iran, RIA Novosti quoted a Russian source as saying.

Upping the ante, Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who has been in Vienna since Tuesday, said a deal was "possible" but only if the six powers did not ask for too much.

That view was echoed Wednesday by President Hassan Rouhani.

"If the other side shows the political will to reach an accord and doesn't make excessive demands, a deal could be done," he said on his website.

But Kerry, who held the latest in a string of meetings with Zarif in Oman last week, put the onus on Iran.

"It is imperative that Iran works with us with all possible effort to prove to the world that the programme is peaceful," Kerry said in London on Tuesday.

- Drums of war -

The landmark accord being sought by Monday's deadline, after months of negotiations, is aimed at easing fears that Tehran might develop nuclear weapons under the guise of its civilian activities -- an ambition it denies.

It could resolve a 12-year standoff, silence talk of war, help normalise Iran's relations with the West and mark a rare foreign success for US President Barack Obama.

"A deal is in everybody's interest because it could improve the troubled global economy by making use of Iran's major economic capacities," Rouhani said in his statement.

In order to make it virtually impossible for Iran to assemble a nuclear weapon, the US, China, Russia, Britain, France and Germany (the P5+1) want Iran to scale down its nuclear programme.

Some areas appear provisionally settled, such as the future of the Arak nuclear reactor and tighter UN inspections to better detect any attempt to build a bomb.

But two key issues remain to be resolved: uranium enrichment -- rendering uranium suitable for peaceful uses but also, at high purities, for a weapon -- and the pace at which sanctions on Iran would be lifted under a deal.

Iran wants to massively ramp up the number of enrichment centrifuges -- in order, it says, to make fuel for a fleet of future reactors -- while the West wants them dramatically reduced, reportedly by half.

The six powers say Iran has no such need in the foreseeable future. Russia is contracted until 2021 to fuel Iran's only power reactor at Bushehr and last week signed a deal to build -- and fuel -- several others.

In exchange for any reduction in its activities, Iran wants sanctions lifted. Bur the powers want to stagger any suspension to be sure that Iran won't renege on its commitments.

"They want everything all at once and this is not realistic," one Western diplomat involved in the talks said, calling Tehran's demands "unrealistic".

- Another extension? -

Given the differences, many analysts expect more time to be put on the clock, perhaps by agreeing certain areas and leaving others for further discussion.

The alternative -- walking away -- would be "catastrophic" and "foolish", Arms Control Association analyst Kelsey Davenport told AFP.

For now though, with another extension presenting risks of its own -- fresh US sanctions, not least -- officials insist that they remain focused on getting the job done in time.


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Iran nuclear talks get down to nitty-gritty
Vienna (AFP) Nov 19, 2014
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